Saturday, September 19, 2026
My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors
Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years. Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors. How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles. How inflation affects returns on different asset classes. Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles. My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.
Company insolvency rate highest in 40 years, but we’re not even in recession. Things are about to get worse!
The business failure rate is currently running well above pre-Covid levels, and even above the deep and painful early-1990s recession. The problem is that business conditions are NOT even at crisis levels. Far from it. The overall economy is ticking along nicely – growing at more than 2% above inflation. Interest rates are not high, relative to history and relative to inflation. The RBA should, and now probably will raise rates further (as it should have done in 2025) Unemployment also not high, and still inflationary / expansionary. But things are about to get a lot worse, as the housing market and construction industry in particular are coming under increasing pressure from rising interest rates, rising costs of labour and materials, and government tax attacks.
My webinar with Michael Yardney: INFLATION – who’s hit hardest, what’s driving inflation, implications for investors
Here’s a link to my latest webinar interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. It’s a deep dive into inflation – including How everyone’s inflation rate is different, Who's hit hardest, What’s really driving the current bout of inflation, How inflation works in cycles, Where we are in the cycle, Why inflation in the next decade is going to be higher than the past three decades, Why inflation is critical for investment returns and asset allocation, and much more.
Housing inflation much higher than CPI: Owners hit hard, but Renters have highest inflation. Governments (all 3 layers) the main culprits
Today’s chart shows inflation rates for the main components of housing relative to CPI since 2000. Overall Housing cost inflation averaged 4.0% pa - ie 1.0% ABOVE CPI inflation. But there are big differences in the components of Housing. The main problem with housing inflation is GOVERNMENT. The highest inflation items are those directly or indirectly controlled by governments – utilities, property taxes, construction (State taxes, government supply restrictions, centralised wage rises), and rents (tax policies on rental housing investment, government supply constraints). Renters suffer the highest inflation as they tend to be lower income earners, spend more of their income on high inflation items (utilities, food), and have less spare cash to spend on lower inflation items (cars, gadgets).
My latest webinar for IFPA– share markets, inflation, rate cuts, private credit, housing, Ai & more
Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, inflation, interest rates, wages growth, housing, private credit, plus audience questions on ‘ai’, productivity, Bitcoin, and housing. (On Private Credit – note that this was recorded before the recent collapses in the US, and before Jamie Dimon’s famous ‘cockroaches’ warning on private credit funds. I have been warning of looming problems for the past couple of years).
Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!
How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all
House prices -v- other Real Assets part 2: Microsoft & US shares
House prices have soared – but that’s mostly just inflation due to continued debasement of paper money. Compared to other 'Real Assets', house prices have fallen in value over time. Case in point: US shares.
The house price myth: Sydney house prices -v- other Real assets part 1: Gold
House prices have soared to astronomical levels in recent years, but have they really? No. Only if you measure them in terms of the increasingly worthless paper money that governments are deliberately debasing. Comopared to other Real Assets, house prices have actually fallen in value! For example: gold. &
Residential Landlords v Tenants: Australia is 'Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell'
Australia has the fastest rising residential property prices and rents in the world, making it Residential ‘Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell’. The tide will turn one day, but when?
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.
“Ashley has the rare ability to ground insightful analysis in solid data and to present it in readily understandable ways. His wry, detached style and focus on the long term is rare and willingness to share a lifetime of learning and thinking appreciated by all who come to know him.”
Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”
Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issues. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).