Tuesday, May 21, 2024

  • Financial Markets

Financial Markets

1-30 out of 42 results.
BondsGovernment – deficits, debtAustralian economyEconomicsChina
The Debt Olympics - How do we rate?

Australia and Australians loaded up on debt in the GFC and again in Covid, but how do we stack up against other countries? How do we rate on: Government debt? Corporate debt? Household debt?   Is debt good or bad? When does it become a problem? The answers are probably very different to what you may have thought.

Ashley Owen May 07, 2024
International sharesBondsAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsInterest ratesInflation
April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?

Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast.  'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?

Ashley Owen May 02, 2024
Stock market crashesInternational sharesAsset classes, asset class returns
Margin Lending boom-bust signal of share market over-confidence - Not flashing red yet

  I have never used or recommended margin lending, but margin lending volumes are a great barometer of boom-bust cycles. Where are we now in the cycle? Are we near the top of the market?

Ashley Owen Apr 28, 2024
International sharesAsset classes, asset class returns
US Shares vastly over-priced + primed to fall - What will the trigger be?

The US share market hit new record highs at the end of March but has retreated a little in April. is this enough of a correction? Is the market still expensive? Is it the start of the next big correction? Here is my update on the US 'CAPE' ratio and what it means for returns  

Ashley Owen Apr 22, 2024
Managed fundsInternational sharesExchange Traded FundsBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation
The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!

Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well!   But that era of great returns from low inflation is over.  What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?

Ashley Owen Apr 16, 2024
Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesStock market crashes
Not all world share markets are hitting new highs. Here are the Pretty Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Most world share markets are hitting new highs this year, but some are not Here they are - the Pretty Good, the Bad, and the Ugly How does your country rate?

Ashley Owen Apr 05, 2024 2
Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares
Dozens of world share markets are hitting new highs - the myth of the Magnificent-7

It's not just the 'Magnificent-7' US tech giants, and it's not just US shares. There are dozens of share markets hitting new highs all over the world. Want proof? Here they are!

Ashley Owen Apr 03, 2024
International sharesBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy
March 2024 Snapshot - Shares keep rising despite strong economy + sticky inflation

March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – What is happening in local and global investment markets and Why.

Ashley Owen Apr 01, 2024
International sharesAsset classes, asset class returns
US Shares: 'double-whammy' of over-pricing, but how serious is it?

The US share market is soaring, but bullish profit forecasts, plus bullish multiples give us a 'double-whammy' of over-pricing. Current p/e ratios - expensive but extreme yet? Profit outlooks - also bullish, but how stretched are they? Why short and long term interest rates are both relatively low given the inflation task Why pricing is different from timing or triggers

Ashley Owen Mar 27, 2024
Wars & military conflictsStock storiesAustralian shares MiningCommodities
Political Risk case study: Bougainville - richest gold mine in the world - but you can't touch it

This company is sitting on the richest copper-gold mine in the world, but it has been locked up for 35 years and can't touch it.    Political risk crippled what was once a highly profitable 'blue chip' stock.    All investing involves political risk, but political risks can be the most volatile, hardest to quantify, and most wealth-destroying.   Or perhaps wealth creating - in the right circumstances and at the right price!

Ashley Owen Mar 19, 2024 2
Stock storiesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesMiningCommodities
Case Study 1969-70 Nickel boom-bust

In 2021 and 2022, when the prices of nickel and nickel explorers/miners were soaring, my inbox was flooded with emails asking which nickel stock(s) to jump into.  Since all mining booms follow a familiar pattern, and end the same way for the same reasons, I responded by referring to my story about the mother of all nickel boom-busts – Poseidon, involving the very same nickel mines.   How’s a one-year gain of 46,000% sound?

Ashley Owen Mar 13, 2024
International sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy
Feb 2024 Snapshot - early rate cut hopes dashed but shares surge on confidence from US profits

He's my quick wrap-up of key developments in investment markets in Feb 2024.

Ashley Owen Mar 03, 2024
ESG, renewables, climate changeStock storiesAustralian shares Social & Environmental
Woolworths ESG case study: Duties to owners -v- suppliers, customers, staff

Woolworths CEO forced out early - despite good profit margins and returns on equity. How to balance maximising shareholder value versus other key stakeholders.

Ashley Owen Feb 23, 2024
InflationAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt
Dr Don Stammer's 60 years of investing

In Dr Don Stammer's speech this week, capping off his 60 year career, he only used 2 charts. Both were mine!      

Ashley Owen Feb 22, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares Australian economy
Case Study: JB-Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star, or the next Myer?

JB Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star or the next Myer?

Ashley Owen Feb 14, 2024 2
CryptoInternational sharesAustralian shares Interest ratesInflationAustralian economy
January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls.  Essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate.

Ashley Owen Feb 05, 2024 2
Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationAustralian shares Exports, tradeAustralian economy
Australia's remarkable population-led growth

Australia’s population just hit 27 million, 18 years sooner than planned.  Australia has the highest population growth rate outside of Africa, but it is still the sparsest country on earth. 

Ashley Owen Jan 31, 2024 2
Australian shares Australian economyMiningExports, tradeWealth, Inequality
Reflections on Australia - lucky country for investors!

In Australia we tend to take a lot for granted. Australia is the richest country in the world per capita (a record we have held since 1890) - but why? It's not just resource riches and/or British colonisation - there are plenty of resource-rich countries, and plenty of ex-British colonies that are economic basket cases today.  How I personally got lucky - twice - in the great lottery of life.

Ashley Owen Jan 27, 2024 2
International sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returns
Share Market Pricing per Country - how do we rate?

The US dominates world markets and is the sole reason why the global share market as a whole appears very expensive. On the other hand, Australia appears much better value – but is it?

Ashley Owen Jan 22, 2024
Stock market crashesWars & military conflictsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsRecessionsRetirement planning
124 Reasons NOT to invest! - This time is different - or is it?

Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?

Ashley Owen Jan 17, 2024
Australian shares Asset classes, asset class returns
Australian Share Market Annual Returns Pyramid

2023 was a good year for the Australian share market, but where does it sit in historical terms? The past five years were actually rather boring and ho-hum for the share market – despite a host of extreme events like the Covid lockdowns, steep recessions, inflation spikes, aggressive rate hikes, wars, rising military tensions, bank collapses, etc.

Ashley Owen Jan 12, 2024 2
Asset classes, asset class returnsAsset allocation, portfolio construction
Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again!

Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again! In 2023, almost all asset classes posted positive returns, most were above average, and most beat inflation, despite doom & gloom from the so-called ‘experts’.  Here is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly asset classes for 2023.

Ashley Owen Jan 09, 2024
Australian shares Currency
1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – end November 2023 – Shares, Bonds, AUD surge

Here is my 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the USD/AUD exchange rate - since the start of 2020.

Ashley Owen Dec 03, 2023
Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesRecessionsAustralian economyFinancial MarketsEconomics
Why do share markets crash? – Part B: Update on Australia

The simple answer is that the Australian share market crashes (and rebounds) because, and when, the US market does. The US is the largest and most influential market that affects all global markets, asset classes, and investors. What happens on our local market is almost always driven by what happens on Wall Street (with rare exceptions like 1907 and 1951), regardless of local conditions, events, or pricing.

Ashley Owen Nov 27, 2023
Australian shares RecessionsAustralian economyFinancial MarketsEconomicsStock market crashes
Why do share markets crash? – A: Update on the US

Recessions do NOT cause or trigger share market sell-offs. Nor do share markets crash because, or when, they become expensive. Share markets fall when shareholders en masse suddenly start to expect imminent big cuts to profits and dividends.

Ashley Owen Nov 23, 2023
Population, demographics, immigrationInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian economy
Australia v US share markets – it’s our turn next!

Australia and the US have had the best share markets in the world for the past 100+ years, but: Why? Which market has generated higher returns? Which has had the bigger booms and busts? Who’s turn is it next?  

Ashley Owen Nov 20, 2023
Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economyAustralian shares
Australian share market has gone nowhere for 16 years? Is it ‘broken’? Has it lost its mojo?

The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why? Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? Is it time to give up on the local share market and look elsewhere?

Ashley Owen Nov 10, 2023
MiningCommodities & MiningStock stories
Case Study: 2003-7 Uranium-Paladin bubble & bust. Lessons from the last bubble-bust

With the lithium bubble bursting, I am now receiving emails from readers (and hot stock tip-sheets) about how to jump in on the latest ‘hot’ commodity – uranium, as a possible solution in the transition from fossil fuels.

Ashley Owen Nov 06, 2023
Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economyAustralian shares
Market Monitor - October 2023 wrap-up: Central banks not done yet with rate hikes

Welcome to the Monthly Market Monitor for October 2023. First, here is our quick snapshot of Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the AUD since the start of 2020

Ashley Owen Nov 02, 2023
InflationAustralian economyEconomicsAsset allocation, portfolio construction
Inflation is not the same for all. What is your own personal inflation rate? And why it matters when

The official inflation figures measure price inflation for a sample basket of items across the whole urban population of Australia. But this is just an average. Inflation is different for everyone.

Ashley Owen Oct 27, 2023

 

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

 

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

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About Ashley Owen | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | Archive | Disclaimer

The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.