Financial Markets

My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors

Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years.   Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors.   How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles.   How inflation affects returns on different asset classes.   Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles.   My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.   

Owen’s Market Pulse: 11 September 2026: Soaring oil prices & bond yields dent share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Two negative developments this week: (1) Oil prices surged as Trump’s war on Iran veered further out of control, and (2) bond yields soared on rising inflation fears, another failed intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stubbornly high inflation numbers, and now Trump’s desperate promise of a US$5k gift to every American adult citizen if the Republicans win the Senate and House, which will add another $1 trillion to the US debt pile to be serviced and repaid by taxpayers and their kids.   The latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities.

Company insolvency rate highest in 40 years, but we’re not even in recession. Things are about to get worse!

The business failure rate is currently running well above pre-Covid levels, and even above the deep and painful early-1990s recession. The problem is that business conditions are NOT even at crisis levels. Far from it. The overall economy is ticking along nicely – growing at more than 2% above inflation. Interest rates are not high, relative to history and relative to inflation. The RBA should, and now probably will raise rates further (as it should have done in 2025) Unemployment also not high, and still inflationary / expansionary. But things are about to get a lot worse, as the housing market and construction industry in particular are coming under increasing pressure from rising interest rates, rising costs of labour and materials, and government tax attacks.

August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues

Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.

Australian gov debt hits A$1trillion, US gov debt hits US $40trillion, but how do we rate in the DEBT OLYMPICS?

Sensational headlines this week - Australian government debt hitting A$1 trillion and the US hitting $40 trillion! But how serious are they really? Here is an update on my ‘Debt Olympics’ chart of all levels of debt (government, corporate, household) since 2000. Australia has one of the LOWEST overall debt burdens in the world. Our Government and Corporate debt levels are relatively low, but our Household debt is the highest. The problem is not Debt per se, but how it is spent: paying for current spending, handouts & political pet projects, or building long-term productive capacity to generate future revenues, growth and prosperity?  

Reason #2 for ASX’s 17-year Lag behind global share markets = chronically LOW RETURNS ON EQUITY

The right chart shows current aggregate ROEs for ASX companies versus major world share markets. The US has highest ROEs (even better than its historical average ROE) despite massive ‘ai’ capex spending. Australia has near lowest ROEs. The right chart shows the longer-term picture: aggregate ROEs in Australia versus the US since 1960. ASX aggregate ROEs have averaged nearly 4% LOWER than the US, which is a very large difference. American company ROEs are HIGHER than their cost of equity capital, so shareholders let them RETAIN most of their earnings to invest in future GROWTH. Australian company ROEs are LOWER than the cost of capital, so shareholders demand high dividend payouts rather than let management squander it. I look at reasons, implications, and whether this problem is temporary or more entrenched.

Reason 1 for the ASX’s 17-year lag behind global share market: SECTOR MIX

In a recent article I pointed out that the ASX has lagged the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS, with the lag ACCELERATING over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom.  It has not always been this way. The Australian and US share markets have been the best performing markets in the world for more than a century.  There are several reasons for the recent lag. The first is SECTOR MIX. It is the most obvious, but NOT most important difference.  More than half of our market is big Banks & Miners – but more than half the US market is the global tech giants. We also have a large Real Estate sector, but a tiny and troubled Tech sector, likewise Health Ca

Australian share market has LAGGED the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS! Our ‘Home Bias’ is costing investors dearly

The ASX has lagged global share markets for the past 17 YEARS since mid-2009, and the lag has ACCELERATED over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom. This is the second longest period of ASX lagging global markets in history, and it is costing investors dearly. Since mid-2009, the ASX has generated total returns of 8.9% pa compared to 12.1% pa for the overall international share market, which has compounded into a 65% difference in returns. Is it time to reduce allocations to the ASX and allocate more to international shares to chase the current global boom? If you do, it will probably turn out to be a classic case of ‘Buy High – Sell Low’ - the exact opposite of serious long-term investors who focus more on company fundamentals than price charts. However, th

July 2026 snapshot: US/Iran quagmire continues; Inflation fears & bond yields rise; Cracks in Tech bubble?

Global share markets were flat in July, ending the rebound since March after the start of the US/Iran war. Three reasons for the pause: 1: US/Iran war stalemate leaving fuel prices high, flowing through to broad inflation numbers, consumer confidence, spending. 2: US Fed’s new Chair Kevin Warsh sounding too soft on inflation. 3: Widening fears about the ai boom deflating. Four key developments in July. Why I’m still relatively positive for share markets in the short term. Plus the latest news (and a dozen charts) on Australian & global share markets, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin. (+ 'I told you so' on SpaceX - sorry!)

Owen’s Market Pulse- 25 July 2026: War escalation lifts oil, gold, bonds yields, hurts share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Oil prices surged as the US/Iran war escalated, sending gold prices and bond yields higher on rising outlooks for inflation and interest rates. These, plus Trump’s new tariff attacks and another “DeepSeek’ moment from China (this one called ‘MoonShot’), sent share markets further south. I am still relatively positive in the short-term (lower oil prices, which should support share markets) because Trump’s primary immediate goal must be to get fuel prices down in time to retain MAGA votes in the November mid-term elections.  My latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities - 

My latest IFPA webinar: Inflation, Interest rates, war, oil, gold, bitcoin, Why ASX is lagging the world

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 10 July 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates, currencies, crypto. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Featuring: Why the Australian share market is lagging the US and the world. Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ doing well after two busy/lazy years, beating Big Super again

My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ returned 30% for the two years since inception in June 2024 (14.5% in 2024/5 and 13.5% in 2025/6), beating its benchmark (VDGR: Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF) by 3.3%, and beating most ‘Big Super’ funds by even more. 30% is not bad given wars in Europe & the Middle-East, energy crisis, tariffs, rising inflation & interest rates, tax hikes in Australia, and political fracturing everywhere. The ETFs in the fund are the same as when I set it up in June 2024. I have not fiddled with or changed any allocations. I set it up in June 2024 with $1m of spare cash as a low-maintenance, ‘all-weather’ portfolio that would keep doing its job over the medium-long term re

2025-6: – Fourth straight year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios. How did yours go?

Today's charts show total returns from the main asset classes & segments for the 2025-6 year to June (right chart), plus 2024-5 (left) for comparison. (All returns are in Aussie dollars before fees and taxes). ‘Diversified’ portfolios (like Big Super) should return around 10% for the 2025-6 year - the 4th straight year of double-digit returns. If yours didn’t return at least 10%, find out why! (as a simple 70/30 ETF portfolio mix returned 10% without any fuss or fiddling, with minimal fees). Returns for 2025-6 were a little below last year, due to lower returns on Australian shares and bond markets everywhere. I outline the main winners and losers for the year.

My latest IFPA webinar: Still bullish short-term on shares, war/inflation, My take on SpaceX + more

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 12 June 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. My thoughts on SpaceX Are share markets over-priced? Is the end of the boom near? Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

Well into 4th year of global share boom. NOT just the US, it’s everywhere (except Australia)

We are well into the fourth year of a global share boom despite wars, inflation, fuel crises, political fracturing, social unrest, plus increasingly astronomical pricing. Although US stocks hog the media headlines, the US share market is actually LAGGING most share markets again this year (as it did last year). It’s not just a US boom. It’s global. Dozens of share markets are beating the US S&P500 this year. AUATRALIA is once again LAGGING the US and the rest of the world by a big margin for a fourth straight year. I outline several reasons for this. Pricing is currently very expensive – not just US tech stocks but everywhere including and especially Australia. Four-year booms are not unusual. There have been plenty of longer booms before a crash. Over-priced booms can keep running up into even more over-priced ter

SpaceX: am I a buyer? How it compares to my only ‘1,000 bagger’

As SpaceX is priced at crazy multiples of profits, dividends, cash flows and assets, and based on outlandish growth assumptions, it is not an ‘investment’ but a speculative bet. I would look at it only as a potential ‘10-bagger’ or ‘100-bagger’ (bought with ‘play money’, not serious money I or my family will be relying on in future). Here is my summary of how SpaceX compares to my only 1,000-bagger, FMG bought in 2003. The problem is that SpaceX fails 7 out of the 9 tests (3 to 9). Bottom line = If I were to buy SpaceX, I may ride the current FOMO boom a little higher, but it will fall heavily when (not if) the current boom ends. Unless Musk can grow profits to $1 trillion or so per year. Anything is possible, I guess! TIMING is just as important as PRICING – and both are lousy for SpaceX.

Happy King's Birthday, fellow British Colonial subjects! Here's my latest Market Pulse

Yep, a sorry reminder that in this day and age we are still a British colony, with a British Head of State, (a Germanic King!), who’s representative still officially must sign off every piece of ‘Australian’ federal and state legislation, and who’s head is still on ‘Australian’ currency notes and coins. Wake up Ostraya! Meanwhile, here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – shares down on US rate hike fears after another strong jobs report, bond yields up, oil up, gold down, AUD down, USD up. The ai boom shifted up another gear with the SpaceX IPO and plans for IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic to cash in on the crazy retail FOMO frenzy.

May 2026 snapshot: Markets see-saw in Trump’s endless ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus

May was a tedious month watching markets predictably see-saw in Trump’s ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus. Every time Trump announces his latest ‘deal’, oil prices, bond yields and the US dollar fall, while share markets and risk currencies like the AUD rise. Then every time the latest ‘deal’ falters or gets delayed or deferred, they all reverse. This will probably carry on for some time as there are no clear signs of the end of the war nor the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the tech / ai / chip /data centre boom continues to inflate, but the local market continues to lag. Will I be jumping in on the SpaceX IPO? In Australia: another RBA rate hike, high inflation, rising unemployment, falling house prices, and the great tax grab debate.    Plus the latest for share markets, inflation, interest rates, com

Inflation BIG Picture: Boomers got rich by lucky timing. Next Gen to get higher inflation & rates

Here’s my go-to chart on the BIG Picture on inflation over the past 150 years. Five BIG lessons: 1 - Inflation is global, because capital is global, and monetary theory/dogma/fads are global. 2 - Overall UPWARD trend in inflation over past 150 years as monetary systems moved from metal-backing, to exchange standards, then to unrestricted fiat paper money. 3 - Multi-decade inflation phases along the way as each monetary system is abandoned and replaced by the next. 4 - The big inflation spikes have been due to military buildups and war-time spending, same as past 2,000+ years. 5 - The recent 30-year golden era of declining/low inflation & interest rates, with high real returns for shares, bonds & property, is clearly over, as each of the drivers of disinflation have now ENDED and REVERSED, driving inflation a

Owen’s Market Pulse: 23 May 2026 + Xi-Trump-Putin talks, Budget tax debate

Here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – US/global tech / ai / chip boom back in full swing (at bubble-like pricing levels) despite US/Iran war dragging on, high energy prices, and rising inflation. Primed and due for major correction, just waiting for the trigger/s. Share markets edge up a little, but bond yields on the rise on fears of inflationary government spending / debt, despite signs of slowdown as high energy prices blunt confidence and spending. Different world views from Xi with Trump and Putin, and the local budget tax debate in Oz.

Owen’s Market Pulse - 16 May 2026

Given rapidly changing markets in the current environment, and an increase in queries from advisers, portfolio managers, commentators and media, I have decided to share one of my regular tools to track key market barometers and drivers of global investment markets. This is something I do anyway in order to keep track of what’s going on and why. I track and analyse thousands of data points across all markets and asset classes, but the most important barometers and drivers of local and global markets for my purposes are: share markets (Aus & US), treasury bonds (Aus & US), currencies (AUD & USD), oil and gold.

April 2026 snapshot: Shares rebound on hopes of war ending, but stalemate the likely outcome

Share markets around the world rebounded in April after a very brief war / inflation scare in March, but the ASX remains a global laggard. Investors have two positives to support their bullishness. The first is hope that Trump retreats (dressed up as an epic ‘win’ of course) because his most urgent goal is to get fuel prices down in order to retain MAGA voters in the November mid-term elections. The second positive is strong US profits, thanks to tech / ai, and the bonanza for fossil fuel producers like the US. The war continues, but is increasingly looking like a stalemate, probably with higher energy prices and inflation for a while yet. Rate cuts or rate hikes? Share markets everywhere (not just US tech) are still vastly over-priced on numerous measures – including and especially in Australia. A major global correction is due

My latest IFPA webinar: Impacts of War on shares, bonds, gold, inflation: Rate HIKES or Rate CUTS?

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Plus audience questions. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Are we heading for rate CUTS or rate HIKES? The BIG picture on INFLATION and implications for long—term portfolios Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. PLUS – I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey.

1973-4 Oil Crisis - Fact Check: impacts on inflation, interest rates, shares, FX, gold. Then-v-Now?

With the recent spike in oil prices there are a lot of myths about the 1973-4 oil shock causing the 1970s inflation, and also triggering the 1973-4 share market crashes. Here are the facts about what actually happened to shares, bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, oil, gold, and inflation before, during and after the 1973-4 crisis. SHARE MARKETS actually ROSE during the Yom Kippur War, OPEC production cuts and embargoes. The oil price spike was only part of a much larger 1973-4 share market crash where there were several other causes. INFLATION was already running at 7.4% in US and 10.1% in Australia BEFORE the crisis. Oil prices certainly added to inflation, but was not a primary cause. I outline many SIMILARITIES and DIFFERENCES between the 1973-4 crisis and today’s conditions.

March 2026 snapshot: Not a dull month but I have two practical & logical reasons to be bullish

March 2026 was certainly one of the more eventful months for investment markets! Here’s my quick wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors, including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, cash rates, currencies, commodities, and more. I outline two practical and logical reasons to be bullish in the medium term – one is my take on Trump’s war agenda, the other is chronic fiscal diarrhoea.

The Myth of rising Oil prices being bad for Share markets

Most years of RISING oil prices (even severe oil price spikes like 1979) were GOOD years for shares. Out of all four segments on the chart, the sector with the most years by far is the upper right segment ‘B’ which was when oil prices and shares were both UP. Many of the BEST years for Australian shares were when oil prices were RISING including 1978, 1979, 1985, 1989,  1995, 1996, 1999,  2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2013,  2019, and 2021. Conversely, some of the WORST years for shares were when oil prices were also FALLING (segment ‘C’ ), but these had little to do with oil - like 1930 (Great Depression) and 2008 (GFC). At most, oil prices have been a relatively minor contributing factor in share boom-bu

My latest IFPA Webinar: Iran war impacts on shares, bonds, inflation, rates, oil, gold, bitcoin

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. This edition is mainly about impacts of the war (and prior wars) on share markets, inflation, interest rates, oil, gold, bitcoin. Plus audience questions. Plus thoughts on the likely outcomes of the war, and some historical context behind oil and conflict in the Middle East. NB. I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey. Enjoy!

Impact of 31 wars & crises on share markets: mostly quick recoveries and ABOVE-average returns!

Three-quarters of the major wars and military flare-ups in the past century were accompanied by rising share markets (including the BIG ones in WW2). Each crisis is different of course, but wars generally create surges in demand and spending, flowing through to company profits and share prices, but also higher inflation. But even with higher inflation, in most cases the military crises triggered surges or rebounds in share markets. The initial shocks caused mostly sharp but short sell-offs, but two-thirds recovered within three months, and three-quarters were ahead by 12 months. More than half of cases, both US and Aussie share markets posted better than historical average returns from pre-crisis levels (and even higher from the crisis lows).

Feb2026 snapshot: Just when I thought it was safe to issue a monthly report Trump starts another war

My essential wrap‑up of global markets for Aussie investors. Trump’s main domestic challenge is voters facing cost‑of‑living pressures. Any action that lifts oil prices risks pushing prices higher across the economy. Share markets rose globally — except in the US, where software stocks remain under pressure amid fears that AI could erode revenue streams. Investors are rotating from asset‑lite companies toward those with hard assets. Bond markets posted small gains as yields fell on concerns about slower global growth, potentially reflecting AI’s impact on jobs. Plus: inflation, interest rates, commodities, currencies, bitcoin and more.

My latest IFPA webinar: Rate hikes, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin. Has ‘ai’ killed the ‘ai' boom?

Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver. Plus audience questions on inflation targeting, gold, and shorting. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios – discretionary and non-discretionary. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. Enjoy!