Category: Economics

1-30 out of 39 results.

MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

‘What’s your Number? Part 2: 17 key factors driving ‘How much do I need’ & ‘How much can I spend?'

Here are 17 key drivers that determine 'How much do I need to retire', and 'How much can I afford to spend?' How do they work, and how do they apply to you? This handy guide will help you come up with your own Number that suits your needs and goals.

Ashley Owen May 14, 2024

MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

What's your Number? Part 1: 'How much do I need to retire?', 'How much can I afford to spend?'

Here we tackle these difficult questions, and similar questions like: 'When can I afford to retire?' 'Will my money last as long as I do? Here are the two key Numbers to tackle these questions. Plus two quick tests to help measure progress toward your goal.

Ashley Owen May 10, 2024

BondsGovernment – deficits, debtAustralian economyEconomicsChina

The Debt Olympics - How do we rate?

Australia and Australians loaded up on debt in the GFC and again in Covid, but how do we stack up against other countries? How do we rate on: Government debt? Corporate debt? Household debt? Is debt good or bad? When does it become a problem? The answers are probably very different to what you may have thought.

Ashley Owen May 07, 2024

International sharesBondsAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsInterest ratesInflation

April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?

Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast. 'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?

Ashley Owen May 02, 2024

Managed fundsInternational sharesExchange Traded FundsBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation

The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!

Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well! But that era of great returns from low inflation is over. What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?

Ashley Owen Apr 16, 2024

International sharesBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy

March 2024 Snapshot - Shares keep rising despite strong economy + sticky inflation

March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – What is happening in local and global investment markets and Why.

Ashley Owen Apr 01, 2024

Exports, tradeChinaMiningCommodities

Chinese Steel Production - the Sydney Harbour Bridge Index

China builds another 'Sydney Harbour Bridge' worth of steel every 10 minutes! That's 26,000 Harbour Bridges per year - with our rocks. China's steel production has been single biggest driver of Australia's prosperity this century. But with China's construction market collapsing and economy stagnating, how will that affect us? ·

Ashley Owen Mar 25, 2024

RecessionsAustralian economyInterest rates

Company insolvencies up 100%! - 3 reasons not to panic

Yes, company failures are up 100% - but here are three reasons not to panic Insolvency rates tell us about the Business Cycle - Where are we now? Where to next? Which industries are under most pressure? Why the next recession will see fewer company failures than past recessions Why I'm bullish on Aussie companies as a whole, recession or not

Ashley Owen Mar 21, 2024

MoneyInflationCommodities

Gold: Curious case of the '31-year itch'?

Gold is hitting new highs lately, so everyone is looking to jump in. It's time to step back for a moment and look at the big picture: Gold goes through regular 31-year cycles - so where are we now in the cycle? Why gold is a lousy inflation hedge most of the time. Is it cheap or expensive? When it is 'good value'?

Ashley Owen Mar 15, 2024 2

Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationAustralian economy

Australia's shrinking growth - mostly just population growth

Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on population rather than real reforms to improve productivity and living standards. It has been deteriorating for several decades through governments of all types. Here is the Big Picture you will not find anywhere else.

Ashley Owen Mar 07, 2024

International sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy

Feb 2024 Snapshot - early rate cut hopes dashed but shares surge on confidence from US profits

He's my quick wrap-up of key developments in investment markets in Feb 2024.

Ashley Owen Mar 03, 2024

Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationInflationSocial & EnvironmentalReal Estate and Property

Residential Landlords v Tenants: Australia is 'Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell'

Australia has the fastest rising residential property prices and rents in the world, making it Residential ‘Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell’. The tide will turn one day, but when?

Ashley Owen Feb 28, 2024

InflationAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt

Dr Don Stammer's 60 years of investing

In Dr Don Stammer's speech this week, capping off his 60 year career, he only used 2 charts. Both were mine!

Ashley Owen Feb 22, 2024

RecessionsInflationAustralian economySocial & EnvironmentalEconomics

Australia's 'Misery Index': Inflation + Unemployment

Australia's Misery Index: Unemployment + Inflation. Where are we now?

Ashley Owen Feb 16, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares Australian economy

Case Study: JB-Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star, or the next Myer?

JB Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star or the next Myer?

Ashley Owen Feb 14, 2024 2

CryptoInternational sharesAustralian shares Interest ratesInflationAustralian economy

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls. Essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate.

Ashley Owen Feb 05, 2024 2

Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationAustralian shares Exports, tradeAustralian economy

Australia's remarkable population-led growth

Australia’s population just hit 27 million, 18 years sooner than planned. Australia has the highest population growth rate outside of Africa, but it is still the sparsest country on earth.

Ashley Owen Jan 31, 2024 2

Australian shares Australian economyMiningExports, tradeWealth, Inequality

Reflections on Australia - lucky country for investors!

In Australia we tend to take a lot for granted. Australia is the richest country in the world per capita (a record we have held since 1890) - but why? It's not just resource riches and/or British colonisation - there are plenty of resource-rich countries, and plenty of ex-British colonies that are economic basket cases today. How I personally got lucky - twice - in the great lottery of life.

Ashley Owen Jan 27, 2024 2

Stock market crashesWars & military conflictsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsRecessionsRetirement planning

124 Reasons NOT to invest! - This time is different - or is it?

Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?

Ashley Owen Jan 17, 2024

CurrencyCommodities

What drives the Aussie dollar Part 2: Commodities prices

This is the second in a series of articles looking at the four main drivers of the Aussie dollar

Ashley Owen Dec 13, 2023

Australian economyInterest ratesInflationCurrency

What drives the Aussie dollar? – Part 1: Interest Rate Differentials

Every day (in fact every minute of every day and night) the value of the Aussie dollar jumps around, seemingly at random.

Ashley Owen Dec 08, 2023

Australian shares Currency

1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – end November 2023 – Shares, Bonds, AUD surge

Here is my 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the USD/AUD exchange rate - since the start of 2020.

Ashley Owen Dec 03, 2023

Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesRecessionsAustralian economyFinancial MarketsEconomics

Why do share markets crash? – Part B: Update on Australia

The simple answer is that the Australian share market crashes (and rebounds) because, and when, the US market does. The US is the largest and most influential market that affects all global markets, asset classes, and investors. What happens on our local market is almost always driven by what happens on Wall Street (with rare exceptions like 1907 and 1951), regardless of local conditions, events, or pricing.

Ashley Owen Nov 27, 2023

Australian shares RecessionsAustralian economyFinancial MarketsEconomicsStock market crashes

Why do share markets crash? – A: Update on the US

Recessions do NOT cause or trigger share market sell-offs. Nor do share markets crash because, or when, they become expensive. Share markets fall when shareholders en masse suddenly start to expect imminent big cuts to profits and dividends.

Ashley Owen Nov 23, 2023

Population, demographics, immigrationInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian economy

Australia v US share markets – it’s our turn next!

Australia and the US have had the best share markets in the world for the past 100+ years, but: Why? Which market has generated higher returns? Which has had the bigger booms and busts? Who’s turn is it next?

Ashley Owen Nov 20, 2023

CommoditiesEconomicsAustralian economyExports, tradeMiningAgriculture

Australia’s bounty: 400 years of exports. Is it just ‘luck’? Or masterful ability to adapt and pivot

Commodities matter! More than half of the 2,200+ companies listed on the ASX are miners (the vast majority are explorers with little more than a map, a compass, and high hopes, but a small number of miners do actually produce something).

Ashley Owen Nov 15, 2023

Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economyAustralian shares

Australian share market has gone nowhere for 16 years? Is it ‘broken’? Has it lost its mojo?

The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why? Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? Is it time to give up on the local share market and look elsewhere?

Ashley Owen Nov 10, 2023

Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economyAustralian shares

Market Monitor - October 2023 wrap-up: Central banks not done yet with rate hikes

Welcome to the Monthly Market Monitor for October 2023. First, here is our quick snapshot of Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the AUD since the start of 2020

Ashley Owen Nov 02, 2023

InflationAustralian economyEconomicsAsset allocation, portfolio construction

Inflation is not the same for all. What is your own personal inflation rate? And why it matters when

The official inflation figures measure price inflation for a sample basket of items across the whole urban population of Australia. But this is just an average. Inflation is different for everyone.

Ashley Owen Oct 27, 2023

Interest ratesAustralian economyEconomicsInflation

Australia-v-rest of the world on Inflation & Interest rates. RBA is lagging and has more work to do

Today (25 October 2023) the latest inflation figures for Australia were released (for the September quarter). The news was mixed – quarterly inflation rose from 0.8% to 1.2%, but the annual rate (rolling 12 months) fell from 6.1% to 5.4%. Meanwhile the cash rate has been sitting at 4.1% since June, after twelve rate hikes.

Ashley Owen Oct 25, 2023

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

Economics

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