Interest Rates

Wages falling further behind inflation – government and RBA stoking, not attacking, inflation

So far this century, wages in Australia have grown comfortably AHEAD of inflation, with public sector wage growth leading private sector wage growth. However, since the start of 2020 in the post-Covid era of higher inflation, wages have LAGGED well behind inflation, with both private and public sectors suffering NEGATIVE real wage growth. The gap between inflation and wages has accelerated once again over the past year as inflation remains high. Here I look at the causes and solutions for the problems of declining real wages and living standards.

My webinar with Michael Yardney: INFLATION – who’s hit hardest, what’s driving inflation, implications for investors

Here’s a link to my latest webinar interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. It’s a deep dive into inflation – including How everyone’s inflation rate is different, Who's hit hardest,  What’s really driving the current bout of inflation,   How inflation works in cycles,  Where we are in the cycle, Why inflation in the next decade is going to be higher than the past three decades, Why inflation is critical for investment returns and asset allocation, and much more.

July 2026 snapshot: US/Iran quagmire continues; Inflation fears & bond yields rise; Cracks in Tech bubble?

Global share markets were flat in July, ending the rebound since March after the start of the US/Iran war. Three reasons for the pause: 1: US/Iran war stalemate leaving fuel prices high, flowing through to broad inflation numbers, consumer confidence, spending. 2: US Fed’s new Chair Kevin Warsh sounding too soft on inflation. 3: Widening fears about the ai boom deflating. Four key developments in July. Why I’m still relatively positive for share markets in the short term. Plus the latest news (and a dozen charts) on Australian & global share markets, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin. (+ 'I told you so' on SpaceX - sorry!)

Australian inflation well ABOVE target once again. Here’s how I rate the RBA’s record on inflation targeting

Yesterday, Australian CPI inflation came in at 3.8% for the 12 months to June 2026. Down from 4.6% in March, but still well above the RBA’s 2-3% target. ‘Trimmed mean’ CPI is also still well above target at 3.6%. Despite inflation remaining too high, real rates still too low, and Federal & State governments continuing on unconstrained inflationary deficit spending sprees, the RBA is reluctant to raise rates further, fearing the government will once again neutralise the rate hikes with even more ‘cost of living’ handouts and productivity-free wage rises which entrench the inflation spiral. Has this tarnished the RBA’s long-term record on inflation targeting? Here is an update on my 6 Feb 2026 article on the RBA’s long-term record on inflation.

Owen’s Market Pulse- 25 July 2026: War escalation lifts oil, gold, bonds yields, hurts share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Oil prices surged as the US/Iran war escalated, sending gold prices and bond yields higher on rising outlooks for inflation and interest rates. These, plus Trump’s new tariff attacks and another “DeepSeek’ moment from China (this one called ‘MoonShot’), sent share markets further south. I am still relatively positive in the short-term (lower oil prices, which should support share markets) because Trump’s primary immediate goal must be to get fuel prices down in time to retain MAGA votes in the November mid-term elections.  My latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities - 

My latest IFPA webinar: Inflation, Interest rates, war, oil, gold, bitcoin, Why ASX is lagging the world

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 10 July 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates, currencies, crypto. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Featuring: Why the Australian share market is lagging the US and the world. Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

My latest IFPA webinar: Still bullish short-term on shares, war/inflation, My take on SpaceX + more

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 12 June 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. My thoughts on SpaceX Are share markets over-priced? Is the end of the boom near? Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

Inflation BIG Picture: Boomers got rich by lucky timing. Next Gen to get higher inflation & rates

Here’s my go-to chart on the BIG Picture on inflation over the past 150 years. Five BIG lessons: 1 - Inflation is global, because capital is global, and monetary theory/dogma/fads are global. 2 - Overall UPWARD trend in inflation over past 150 years as monetary systems moved from metal-backing, to exchange standards, then to unrestricted fiat paper money. 3 - Multi-decade inflation phases along the way as each monetary system is abandoned and replaced by the next. 4 - The big inflation spikes have been due to military buildups and war-time spending, same as past 2,000+ years. 5 - The recent 30-year golden era of declining/low inflation & interest rates, with high real returns for shares, bonds & property, is clearly over, as each of the drivers of disinflation have now ENDED and REVERSED, driving inflation a

Australia’s highest cash rate in the world just got even higher – and the job’s not done yet!

Last month I outlined five simple reasons why Australia has the highest cash rate among its peers, and I warned that further rate hikes were needed to tackle inflation.  Today (5 May 2026), the RBA hiked rates for a third time this year, and of the course government blamed the war in Iran, but the fact is that inflation was already well above target BEFORE the war. Following the RBA’s third rate hike today, here is my updated story on why Australian cash rates are highest in the world, and will probably need to go even higher to tackle inflation.  

Why are Australian cash rates HIGHEST in the world? Five simple reasons.

This is one of the most common investor questions I receive from advisers, and it is one of the easiest to answer. It’s fairly simple. Australians suffer the highest cash rates amongst their rich country peers (chart A) because Australia has: The highest inflation rate (chart B), The highest medium-long-term inflation expectations ie highest treasury yields (C), The highest central bank inflation target (D) – for no good reason at all, The strongest jobs market eg lowest unemployment rate (E) (apart from Japan which has a declining population and workforce), and The loosest / most undisciplined monetary and fiscal policies during and since Covid. Bottom line = locked-in structurally higher inflation

My latest IFPA webinar: Impacts of War on shares, bonds, gold, inflation: Rate HIKES or Rate CUTS?

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Plus audience questions. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Are we heading for rate CUTS or rate HIKES? The BIG picture on INFLATION and implications for long—term portfolios Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. PLUS – I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey.

March 2026 snapshot: Not a dull month but I have two practical & logical reasons to be bullish

March 2026 was certainly one of the more eventful months for investment markets! Here’s my quick wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors, including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, cash rates, currencies, commodities, and more. I outline two practical and logical reasons to be bullish in the medium term – one is my take on Trump’s war agenda, the other is chronic fiscal diarrhoea.

Feb2026 snapshot: Just when I thought it was safe to issue a monthly report Trump starts another war

My essential wrap‑up of global markets for Aussie investors. Trump’s main domestic challenge is voters facing cost‑of‑living pressures. Any action that lifts oil prices risks pushing prices higher across the economy. Share markets rose globally — except in the US, where software stocks remain under pressure amid fears that AI could erode revenue streams. Investors are rotating from asset‑lite companies toward those with hard assets. Bond markets posted small gains as yields fell on concerns about slower global growth, potentially reflecting AI’s impact on jobs. Plus: inflation, interest rates, commodities, currencies, bitcoin and more.

My latest IFPA webinar: Rate hikes, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin. Has ‘ai’ killed the ‘ai' boom?

Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver. Plus audience questions on inflation targeting, gold, and shorting. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios – discretionary and non-discretionary. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. Enjoy!

How the RBA scores on its inflation goal? Somewhere between 3 & 10 out of 10. Overall 8 out of 10

Since the RBA gained ‘independence’ in pursuing its 2% to 3% target range, inflation has only been in the target range just 32% of quarters, and 36% of calendar years. It has missed its target TWO THIRDS of the time – so 3 out of 10 for short-term inflation outcomes. But it was never a short-term target. Overall inflation over the period has averaged 2.6% pa which is in the MIDDLE of its target range. 10 out of 10 for long-term inflation targeting. Measured by decade, inflation has been WITHIN its target range EACH decade. Inflation averaged 2.3% in the 1990s, 2.8% in the 2000s, and 2.1% in the 2010s. In the 2020s inflation has averaged 3.8% pa so far, but the decade is not over yet. Inflation over the past 10 years to December 2025 averaged 3%, which is within target. So, through a host of major global and local crises over the past 30+ years,&

January 2026 snapshot – essential wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors

Here’s my new, improved, slimmed-down monthly wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors. It’s a simpler format for my new more complex life (with this pesky cancer thingy) Covers key global events, share markets, inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto, and more. Where are we now? and where to next?

I wrote a year ago the RBA should not cut rates. It did, but now has to correct its mistake- again!

I give the RBA 4 crosses out of 4 for inflation control. More than a year ago (before the RBA rate cuts), I wrote that it had no reason to cut (aside from political pressure). Rates were already too low (inflationary), so when it cut rates, inflation rose as expected. The RBA now has to correct its mistake (again!) The problem was that the RBA raised cash rates later, slower, and lower than the rest of the world in 2022-3, leaving inflation stickier here. Plus we have our unique centralised wage fixing system, cozy monopoly / oligopoly structures in most domestic industries, and governments running inflationary deficit spending sprees. What it means for portfolios – and how I positioned for this. Will the RBA hike rates next week? Will that be the end of it?

2025 snapshot: Boom continues but backed by profits. Expensive, sure. But no more than a year ago

Here's my global markets wrap-up of 2025 for Aussie investors.   Contrary to popular media nonsense, the current boom is not just confined to just a few US tech giants. It has been a widespread boom across industry sectors, countries, and stocks.   Share markets are vastly over-priced of course, but the big share price gains in 2025 did NOT stretch pricing further as they were underpinned by strong growth in profits.   For bond markets it was the 4th straight year of poor returns. Why I have been out of bonds.   Plus inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, crypto, and more.  

My latest IFPA webinar - Winners & Losers in 2025, plus Opportunities & Risks for 2026

Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA* ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 16 December 2025.  Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, bonds, inflation, interest rates, commodities, crypto, and how typical diversified portfolio returns are shaping up. Plus I take a look at the winners and losers in 2025, and what to expect in 2026. Access to the webinar is FREE for IFPA members and non-members. No registration or login is required.

My latest webinar for IFPA– Shares, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold & more!

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 14 November 2025.  Covers the latest on share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin & more. In particular I outline my rationale for the seemingly high pricing of the Mag-7 stocks in the current ai boom. Does it make sense? Do they stack up?

Whitlam, Nixon, the 1973-4 crash, and how the 1970s inflation crisis changed the world

The 1973-4 share market crashes in Australia and the US featured major political crises – Nixon/Watergate in the US and the Whitlam dismissal in Australia. But the main causes of the crashes were the battle against inflation, started in the mid-1960s but worsened under Nixon and Whitlam. The 1970s inflation crisis triggered three seismic policy shifts: 1) monetary policy; 2) central bank independence / inflation targeting; and 3) the shift to a whole new economic orthodoxy which delivered four decades of declining inflation and interest rates, plus high returns. That post-1970s golden era of declining inflation & interest rates, globalisation, free-trade and hands-off government are over. Now we are into a new era – with the return of inflation, big government, protectionism. Today we have several similarities with the 1970s. <

October 2025 snapshot: Global shares up, US rates down, Gold at fever pitch

Global share markets posted a seventh straight month of gains, through yet another US debt ceiling / government shut-down crisis. Wrap-up of shares here and around the world - what were the winners, losers, and why? The US Fed's 5th rate cut despite still-high inflation, but the RBA is not cutting rates here. Gold enters retail silly-season. Plus I cover currencies, commodities, interest rates, inflation, crypto, and more. 

1987 Crash Part 2: what happened, why was it much worse in Australia, and what is similar today?

For the US stock market, the October 1987 crash featured its largest ever one-day fall, but it turned out to be a relatively minor hiccup. The US market started rebounding the next day and recovered its pre-crash high in less than two years. But in Australia the crash was much deeper (-50%) and took more than eight years to recover. Although most of the problems and trigger events were in the US, I provide ten reasons why the Australian crash was much worse than the US. The current US tech boom has several similar underlying conditions as in 1987 - over-pricing, speculative fever, inflation, mounting government deficits & debts, trade & current account deficits, falling US dollar, trade/currency wars. However the trigger for the correction is different in every crash, and may be years away. Meanwhile it pays to be vigilant.&

My latest webinar for IFPA– share markets, inflation, rate cuts, private credit, housing, Ai & more

Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, inflation, interest rates, wages growth, housing, private credit, plus audience questions on ‘ai’, productivity, Bitcoin, and housing. (On Private Credit – note that this was recorded before the recent collapses in the US, and before Jamie Dimon’s famous ‘cockroaches’ warning on private credit funds. I have been warning of looming problems for the  past couple of years).

September 2025 snapshot: Shares keep rising as ‘ai’ goes full bubble

Global share markets post a 6th straight month of gains despite Trump's ongoing frenzy of tariffs, deals, backflips, side-deals, and yet another US debt ceiling / government shut-down crisis. Wrap-up of US, global, and Aussie share markets - what were the winners, losers, and why? The US Fed's 4th rate cut confirmed its shift to jobs and stability, not inflation. Why the RBA is not rushing to cut rates here. Plus I cover currencies, commodities, interest rates, inflation, and more.

Wages Growth -v- Inflation: Are wages lagging inflation, or driving it? Public -v- Private sector?

There has been much media commentary around public sector wages driving inflation. Here are the facts.  It is true that public sector wages growth is currently running head of the private sector, but only this year.  In the prior 4 years, public sector wages lagged the private sector. Over the past 10 years, wages in both public and private sectors have lagged inflation by similar margins. Both are yet to catch up to the 2021-3 inflation surge.  Prior to Covid, public and private sector wages both grew well AHEAD of inflation, with public beating private.  Productivity matters! In previous decades, we had rising real wages plus declining inflation, thanks to productivity gains.  But in the current era of zero productivity gains, wage growth ahead of inflation is likely to keep upward pressure on inflation and

My latest webinar for IFPA- inflation, interest rates, stablecoins, crypto, gold, and Trump’s plans

This episode covers: Update on investment markets,  The latest on inflation, unemployment, interest rates,  What's behind Trump's attacks on the Fed,  Does Trump have a grand plan? Does it make sense? Trump's stable-coin plan,   crypto, gold, and more.  

August 2025 snapshot: Shares keep rising, little tariff impacts yet on inflation, profits, jobs

Share markets posted a fifth straight month of gains, despite Trump’s frenzy of deals, adjustments, backflips, side-deals. The US market posted another five all-time record highs in August, and the ASX did even better with seven. One key driver was the US Fed shifting its main concern from sticky inflation to weakening jobs markets, which boosted hopes of more US rate cuts soon. To date we have seen little impact of Trump’s tariffs on trade, inflation, profits, or jobs, but it is still early days yet. The US had a relatively strong profit reporting season, but it was a rather wild ride in Australia. I outline the winners and losers in each market. I also cover currencies, commodities, interest rates, inflation, and more.

July 2025 snapshot: Share markets up for 4th month, inflation easing, more rate cuts soon

Another month of good gains on global share markets across almost all industry sectors and countries, despite Trump’s frenzy of deals, adjustments, backflips, side-deals. Inflation continues to ease, but central banks remain cautious and reluctant to cut rates further for now. But bond yields rose at the long end, reflecting fears of higher inflation ahead. Global growth, spending, and employment all remain reasonably strong – defying wide-spread predictions of slowdowns & recessions. On commodities markets, oil and gold kept rising on inflation and Middle East troubles. Iron ore was finally boosted by much-awaited Chinese stimulus.

June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors

Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.