Social & Environmental

Australia’s declining economic growth is mostly just POPULATION growth (immigration) – the lazy option instead of deep reforms to boost investment & PRODUCTIVITY

Yesterday’s national accounts confirm a disturbing reality for Australia: immigration-led population growth but flat-lined living standards.   Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on POPULATION growth rather than PRODUCTIVITY growth. Productivity growth (and overall economic growth) have been in steady DECLINE in Australia for several decades through ALL governments. The problem is that all sides of politics are now bowing to populist pressure to radically reduce immigration, which has been the primary source of economic growth this century. This lower growth future will challenge Australian investors’ long-held assumptions of steadily rising corporate revenues, profits and dividends that have been based primarily on high immigration.&

Wages falling further behind inflation – government and RBA stoking, not attacking, inflation

So far this century, wages in Australia have grown comfortably AHEAD of inflation, with public sector wage growth leading private sector wage growth. However, since the start of 2020 in the post-Covid era of higher inflation, wages have LAGGED well behind inflation, with both private and public sectors suffering NEGATIVE real wage growth. The gap between inflation and wages has accelerated once again over the past year as inflation remains high. Here I look at the causes and solutions for the problems of declining real wages and living standards.

Housing inflation much higher than CPI: Owners hit hard, but Renters have highest inflation. Governments (all 3 layers) the main culprits

Today’s chart shows inflation rates for the main components of housing relative to CPI since 2000. Overall Housing cost inflation averaged 4.0% pa - ie 1.0% ABOVE CPI inflation. But there are big differences in the components of Housing. The main problem with housing inflation is GOVERNMENT. The highest inflation items are those directly or indirectly controlled by governments – utilities, property taxes, construction (State taxes, government supply restrictions, centralised wage rises), and rents (tax policies on rental housing investment, government supply constraints). Renters suffer the highest inflation as they tend to be lower income earners, spend more of their income on high inflation items (utilities, food), and have less spare cash to spend on lower inflation items (cars, gadgets).

Happy 250th USA! What I learned first-hand from its 200th anniversary in 1976 and 50 years since

I had a front row seat at USA’s 200th anniversary year in 1976 as an Asian immigrant 16 year-old Aussie kid going to school in LA and Washington. This essay outlines how this experience changed my life and informed my understanding of some of the fundamental differences between Americans and Australians. 1976 was 50 years ago, so it is a good opportunity to reflect on changes since then to the 250th anniversary now.

Where are you on the inflation pyramid? Inflation differences by household type

The national CPI inflation rate is averaged across all types of spenders and households, but different types of households experience different inflation rates due to different spending habits. Working households have the lowest overall inflation rate, BELOW overall national average CPI inflation. Next are Self-funded retirees, with higher average inflation than working households, but still LOWER than national CPI. Government age pensioners on average suffer inflation ABOVE national CPI inflation. At the top of the inflation pyramid with the HIGHEST average inflation are recipients of government welfare other than age pensioners. Welfare payments including pensions are indexed at the ‘Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index’ or CPI, whichever is HIGHER, which entrenches higher inflation for us all.

My latest IFPA webinar: Still bullish short-term on shares, war/inflation, My take on SpaceX + more

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 12 June 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. My thoughts on SpaceX Are share markets over-priced? Is the end of the boom near? Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

Income tax: initially temporary tax on super-rich, now permanent tax on middle class: Bracket Creep

Australia’s top marginal tax rate of 47% is one of the highest in the world, but it was 92.5% during WW2. Federal income tax was introduced in 1915/6 as a temporary measure to fund WW1, but became a permanent tax with the top tax rate increasingly reaching down to ordinary middle class workers. The income level for the top tax rate has fallen dramatically over time (in real terms), catching more and more taxpayers, due to reductions in the income thresholds and also ‘bracket creep’ – inflation silently dragging taxpayers into higher tax brackets each year. Initially, income threshold for the top the Marginal Tax rate of 25% in 1915/6 was 48 times the average wage, so it only hit the super-high earners. But today the top the tax rate of 47%

Chemo Round 6 update: Game of Gloves!

Round 6 marks the half-way point through my 12-round (12-fortnight) chemo program following cancer surgery in January. Pretty much back to normal day-to-day life by about day 6 or 7 of each round. Most of my side effects have been similar from one round to the next, but three appear to be getting progressively worse. One is the intermittent tongue muscle disfunction. Another is a gradual loss of taste. The most annoying side effect that is getting worse is the ‘peripheral neuropathy’ – nerve sensitivity / pain / damage in fingers and toes from cold temperatures and/or touching cold surfaces. It’s impossible to get through a day without accidentally touching cold surfaces and doing nerve damage.   The solution? Gloves! Here are the seven different types of gloves I use to get through a day.

My latest IFPA webinar: Impacts of War on shares, bonds, gold, inflation: Rate HIKES or Rate CUTS?

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Plus audience questions. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Are we heading for rate CUTS or rate HIKES? The BIG picture on INFLATION and implications for long—term portfolios Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. PLUS – I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey.

1973-4 Oil Crisis - Fact Check: impacts on inflation, interest rates, shares, FX, gold. Then-v-Now?

With the recent spike in oil prices there are a lot of myths about the 1973-4 oil shock causing the 1970s inflation, and also triggering the 1973-4 share market crashes. Here are the facts about what actually happened to shares, bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, oil, gold, and inflation before, during and after the 1973-4 crisis. SHARE MARKETS actually ROSE during the Yom Kippur War, OPEC production cuts and embargoes. The oil price spike was only part of a much larger 1973-4 share market crash where there were several other causes. INFLATION was already running at 7.4% in US and 10.1% in Australia BEFORE the crisis. Oil prices certainly added to inflation, but was not a primary cause. I outline many SIMILARITIES and DIFFERENCES between the 1973-4 crisis and today’s conditions.

My latest IFPA Webinar: Iran war impacts on shares, bonds, inflation, rates, oil, gold, bitcoin

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. This edition is mainly about impacts of the war (and prior wars) on share markets, inflation, interest rates, oil, gold, bitcoin. Plus audience questions. Plus thoughts on the likely outcomes of the war, and some historical context behind oil and conflict in the Middle East. NB. I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey. Enjoy!

Chemo Round 2: similar overall impact, but the mix of side effects is different each time. Weird!

Round 2 has been similar overall to Round 1 – ie nothing debilitating, life-changing, or permanent - and back to normal day-to-day life by about day 7 (ie 4 days recovery after 3 days of chemo). Still about a dozen side effects, but the mix is different each time! I put my chemo side effects into 5 columns: – ‘Gone’, ‘Less’, ‘Same’, ‘Worse’, and ‘New’. The ‘Worse’ and ‘New’ side effects are the ones to watch because chemo is cumulative - the body doesn’t ‘get used it’. It builds up over time, and side effects can become permanent. So far, the whole cancer surgery/chemo journey has been much better than I had been expecting. Very lucky that I have been having a pretty good run compared to many or most chemo experiences. It is still early days yet, but so far so good!

Impact of 31 wars & crises on share markets: mostly quick recoveries and ABOVE-average returns!

Three-quarters of the major wars and military flare-ups in the past century were accompanied by rising share markets (including the BIG ones in WW2). Each crisis is different of course, but wars generally create surges in demand and spending, flowing through to company profits and share prices, but also higher inflation. But even with higher inflation, in most cases the military crises triggered surges or rebounds in share markets. The initial shocks caused mostly sharp but short sell-offs, but two-thirds recovered within three months, and three-quarters were ahead by 12 months. More than half of cases, both US and Aussie share markets posted better than historical average returns from pre-crisis levels (and even higher from the crisis lows).

Chemo Round 1 – Much better than I had expected. So far, so good! - but it's early days yet

Round 1 of my chemo program turned out a thousand percent better than I was expecting. Seems I have been very lucky. I had a bunch of minor (and some very whacky) side effects, but none of the major problems that are common with chemo. Essentially back to feeling 100% after day seven of the cycle, and back to normal day-to-day activities. The only big changes have been with my dramatic weight changes. It’s early days yet of course, but so far so good! Round 2 starts in a couple of days (11 March) so wish me luck!

My cancer journey: First 2 months of costs – steep learning curve for me, plus some surprises

The two months since my positive bowel cancer scan result in December has been a wild ride – tests, scans, colonoscopy, surgery, oncology, and now prepping for chemotherapy. All of this over the Christmas-New Year break! I cannot imagine this would have been possible in any other country. Total cost for first two months was $29,000. Sounds like a lot, but I had no idea what to expect. Private health insurance covered 51% – much less than I had expected. Medicare covered 13%, so I was out of pocket $10k, or 36% of the total. Private health insurance is a lot CHEAPER than the Medicare Levy/Tax. I found at least eight different ways in which medical costs are paid - very confusing (for me anyway!) I’m lucky to live in a country with a vast array of world-class public and private health facilities and professionals.

126 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?

It’s that time of year again – time to review threats and risks that might blow up our investments in the coming year. In the past we have had wars (including ‘World Wars’), revolutions, recessions, depressions, inflation spikes, deflation, pandemics, political crises, nuclear strikes, etc. They may have been devastating for human life and whole economic systems, but you would have trouble spotting their impacts on the chart. For 2026, we have Trump’s threats against Canada, Greenland, military actions in LatAm and Iran, ICE waging war on US soil, escalating US deficit/debts, Trump’s new Fed chair hired to cut rates, ‘ai’ destroying jobs, industries, and even destroying the ‘ai’ bubble itself!  All scary stuff! Given the ‘uncertainty’ and expensive pricing, is it NOW time to sell up and wait for things to 'settle down' and become

4 out of 5 on my Cancer Surgery goals. Could have been worse, but could have been better!

I went in for colorectal cancer surgery on 8 January after receiving a positive cancer screen a month earlier and tests/scans/colonoscopy in December. 4 out of 5 of my surgery goals were achieved, but post-surgery tests revealed the cancer was ‘Stage 3’ (‘Advanced Localised’), meaning it has progressed at ‘advanced’ levels into surrounding areas. With Stage 3 cancer, the initial surgery is not the end of the problem, but probably just the beginning of a whole new journey. It will certainly mean big changes to how I prioritise my time, energy, focus.

My Life in Weeks: 83% done but there’s a nasty new twist this year. Life’s like a box of chocolates!

It’s the start of another year, so it’s time to update ‘My Life in Weeks’. I have now lived 3,453 weeks, which is 83% of my estimated expected ‘useful life’. Will I make it to 80? or perhaps even longer, into ‘bonus time’? 99% of humans throughout history had much shorter lives than ours, but somehow they managed to build the modern world and prosperity we enjoy today. I have been thrown a curve ball this year that may upset my grand plans. Time to re-focus and make sure I make the most of every day.  

Six things I learned about age/dementia care costs, and how they have shaped my own plans

This is a follow-up to my main story ‘10 things I learned about dementia & dementia care homes from close range’. That first story covered various aspects my experiences dealing with my mother’s dementia and dementia facilities in Sydney over the past three years. Today’s story is about the costs, how they were very different to what I expected, and how some of the lessons have shaped my own plans. 

10 things I learned about dementia & dementia care homes from close range

This is a brief summary of some aspects my experiences dealing with my mother’s dementia and dementia facilities in Sydney over the past three years. Every case is different of course, so these are just my random anecdotal comments that may be of interest to others facing the prospect of parent(s) or family member(s) with, or developing, dementia. Topics I cover include - the pace and pattern of cognitive decline, the decision to ‘go in’, different types of facilities we went through, what its like inside, lessons in preparation, costs, and more.

Aussie house prices on the rise again, but rents are yet to catch up

  House prices have been rising again since March 2025 with the RBA interest rate cuts, and prices are now set to accelerate with the new first home buyer lending rules. Since Covid, house prices have soared, but rents have risen by only half as much, so gross rental yields for landlords have halved while interest rates have risen. Given continued strong immigration and slow new construction activity, there will be enormous pressure (and scope) for landlords to raise rents further. Tenants will have to cope with rising rents, plus the nightmare seeing price rises take the dream of home ownership further out of reach.  Why I have recently renewed my interest in housing markets.

Australia’s aging population - are age pensions, benefits, and tax breaks sustainable in future?

  Many retirees live more frugally than necessary, and die with as much Super as they had at retirement. One possible reason may be a rising fear that the current government age pension system is not sustainable and may not be there for life. Despite our aging population, Australia is probably best placed of any country in the world to maintain its government age pension system. Fears of its demise are probably over-done. However, it is probably inevitable that the age pension, and/or the generous tax-breaks and benefits that go with it, will need to be scaled back in future. Future retirees should aim for financial independence, not welfare reliance, to be safe. 

Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0 – Part 1: Shape & distribution of Economic Growth

In the 8 years since the start of Trump’s first term, the global economy has changed fundamentally. Part 1 looks at big changes in the shape and distribution of economic growth: There are 600 million more people in the world. That's more than the entire 19th century! Populations are aging everywhere. The global economic pie is US$10 trillion larger. 

Report from the Big Apple on election eve 2024 - to the Barricades!

Having spent the past 18 days travelling around North America, here are my top-10 observations on the election race from New York.  What are Americans saying about the election race and the campaigns?  Barricades are being erected all over New York City – is it in anticipation of civil unrest following the election?

Woodside case study Part 2: Since 1980 – struggling producer to global giant to fossil fuel pariah!

How Woodside went from cash-strapped explorer to global giant and one of Australia’s biggest export earners. Still a wild ride for investors – as a leveraged bet on commodities prices, plus political risks. Despite huge profits and becoming a top-10 ASX company, still struggles to beat the overall market.

Woodside case study Part 1: 1954 to 1980 – volatile speculative survivor to national hero

Good case study representing the vast majority of ASX listed companies – as a volatile speculative hopeful with no revenues or assets to underpin value. Eventually defied the odds and the elements by actually finding something of enormous value.  But it required extreme patience and perseverance – it holds the record for longest wait for first revenue, first profit, and first dividend of any ASX listed co

World War II & share markets – Part 2 of 2: Through to the end of the War and aftermath

Key points: Australian and US share markets did well overall, despite heavy loss of life and attacks on our home soil. Volatile ride for shareholders, but patient holders ahead. Generally good for shares overall, limited only by war-time controls on profits and share prices.  

World War II & share markets – Part 1 of 2: the Outbreak

War is scary, so it is tempting for investors to panic and race for the exits.  It's important to look beyond the media headlines - knee-jerk, herd-following reactions are usually wrong.  Usually positive for commodities demand, prices, mining shares.

Australia: Most listed stocks per capita, and biggest gamblers in the world - Is there a link?

Australia has more listed companies per head of population than just about any other country on earth – and many times more than the US. Why? Is it because we have many times more viable business opportunities to pursue? Or is it because we have the wiliest stock promoters and spruikers, and we are the biggest gamblers in the world? Actually it is both!

Paris Olympics – who were the real winners adjusted for population and wealth?

It was Australia's best ever medal haul based on a simple medal count. But who were the real winners when we adjust for the vast differences in  population and wealth in each country? How do we really rate against our rivals and peers?