Investment & Wealth Mgmt

My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors

Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years.   Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors.   How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles.   How inflation affects returns on different asset classes.   Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles.   My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.   

What’s your personal inflation rate? How it affects your investment strategy & retirement planning

Today's chart shows Australian inflation since 2000 for the main categories of spending. The headline 'Consumer Price Index' inflation rate is a single number, averaged of a wide range of different goods & services with very different inflation rates. Some spending categories have inflation rates more than double CPI, while other items have actually fallen in price over the period (negative inflation). No household is 'average', so it is important to understand your own personal expense inflation rate in order to estimate how much CAPITAL you need per dollar of spending, and how much you can afford to SPEND given the level of CAPITAL, to ensure that your living standards are maintained and not eroded over time. The power of compounding magnifies even very small annual differ

My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ doing well after two busy/lazy years, beating Big Super again

My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ returned 30% for the two years since inception in June 2024 (14.5% in 2024/5 and 13.5% in 2025/6), beating its benchmark (VDGR: Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF) by 3.3%, and beating most ‘Big Super’ funds by even more. 30% is not bad given wars in Europe & the Middle-East, energy crisis, tariffs, rising inflation & interest rates, tax hikes in Australia, and political fracturing everywhere. The ETFs in the fund are the same as when I set it up in June 2024. I have not fiddled with or changed any allocations. I set it up in June 2024 with $1m of spare cash as a low-maintenance, ‘all-weather’ portfolio that would keep doing its job over the medium-long term re

2025-6: – Fourth straight year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios. How did yours go?

Today's charts show total returns from the main asset classes & segments for the 2025-6 year to June (right chart), plus 2024-5 (left) for comparison. (All returns are in Aussie dollars before fees and taxes). ‘Diversified’ portfolios (like Big Super) should return around 10% for the 2025-6 year - the 4th straight year of double-digit returns. If yours didn’t return at least 10%, find out why! (as a simple 70/30 ETF portfolio mix returned 10% without any fuss or fiddling, with minimal fees). Returns for 2025-6 were a little below last year, due to lower returns on Australian shares and bond markets everywhere. I outline the main winners and losers for the year.

My latest IFPA webinar: Still bullish short-term on shares, war/inflation, My take on SpaceX + more

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 12 June 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. My thoughts on SpaceX Are share markets over-priced? Is the end of the boom near? Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

May 2026 snapshot: Markets see-saw in Trump’s endless ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus

May was a tedious month watching markets predictably see-saw in Trump’s ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus. Every time Trump announces his latest ‘deal’, oil prices, bond yields and the US dollar fall, while share markets and risk currencies like the AUD rise. Then every time the latest ‘deal’ falters or gets delayed or deferred, they all reverse. This will probably carry on for some time as there are no clear signs of the end of the war nor the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the tech / ai / chip /data centre boom continues to inflate, but the local market continues to lag. Will I be jumping in on the SpaceX IPO? In Australia: another RBA rate hike, high inflation, rising unemployment, falling house prices, and the great tax grab debate.    Plus the latest for share markets, inflation, interest rates, com

Bitcoin is just a bet on the US tech hype cycle. Will it ever live up to its lofty ideals?

I do not own Bitcoin, but I do like the underlying utopian ideals of citizen-controlled digital currencies out of the reach of governments, banks, central banks, taxes, regulation, intermediaries, scrutiny, hackers, etc, and I have followed developments closely since the early 1980s. BTC is touted as a means of exchange, a store of value, and a hedge against inflation, political turmoil, US default. But in practice it has turned out to be the OPPOSITE. It is an extremely volatile tool for speculation and is only a currency of choice for drug dealers, arms traders, scammers, hackers and blackmailers. Bitcoin’s price actually just follows the US tech hype cycle (except it is seven times more volatile). When the tech boom bursts, will BTC fall with it, or will it magically start reflecting its true fundamental value (whatever that is)?

My latest IFPA Webinar: Iran war impacts on shares, bonds, inflation, rates, oil, gold, bitcoin

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. This edition is mainly about impacts of the war (and prior wars) on share markets, inflation, interest rates, oil, gold, bitcoin. Plus audience questions. Plus thoughts on the likely outcomes of the war, and some historical context behind oil and conflict in the Middle East. NB. I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey. Enjoy!

My latest IFPA webinar: Rate hikes, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin. Has ‘ai’ killed the ‘ai' boom?

Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver. Plus audience questions on inflation targeting, gold, and shorting. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios – discretionary and non-discretionary. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. Enjoy!

Inflation (even ‘low’ inflation) is the largest destroyer of wealth - worse than fraud, fees, taxes

Inflation is the largest destroyer of wealth – even greater than fraud, theft, fees, and taxes, but it often receives the least attention. Past generations of retirees didn’t need to worry about inflation or asset allocation because retirement lasted only a few short years. But for today’s investors and retirees facing several decades in retirement, inflation protection and asset allocation are now critical. Even with the RBA’s so-called 'low' inflation target -  we will still lose HALF of our wealth and spending power due to inflation during retirement. Worse still, if inflation over the next few decades is like it was in the last few ‘low-inflation’ decades, it will destroy up to TWO THIRDS of our wealth and spending power.

Inflation: wealth-destruction compounds over time – even in ‘low inflation’ years

This is one of my main ‘go-to’ charts to illustrate the destructive power of inflation compounded over time. Inflation has always been a silent, government-sponsored destroyer of citizens’ wealth, even in so-called ‘low inflation’ years. In the ‘low’ inflation 2000s and 2010s, investors became complacent, but inflation still managed to destroy one third to one half of the value of our money. Even if and when inflation is brought back down to ‘target’ levels, investors need to protect themselves against the destructive effects of inflation on their wealth and future lifestyles. Life’s a lottery – each of us will have different inflation experiences during our investing lifetimes (and different real returns from all asset classes), based on when we happen to have been born.  

My latest webinar for IFPA– Shares, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold & more!

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 14 November 2025.  Covers the latest on share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin & more. In particular I outline my rationale for the seemingly high pricing of the Mag-7 stocks in the current ai boom. Does it make sense? Do they stack up?

Six things I learned about age/dementia care costs, and how they have shaped my own plans

This is a follow-up to my main story ‘10 things I learned about dementia & dementia care homes from close range’. That first story covered various aspects my experiences dealing with my mother’s dementia and dementia facilities in Sydney over the past three years. Today’s story is about the costs, how they were very different to what I expected, and how some of the lessons have shaped my own plans. 

3/4-time score check on returns for asset classes & diversified portfolios in 2025. So far so good!

Despite Trump’s tariffs, rising political unrest across the world, wars, mounting deficits and debts everywhere, the ‘cost of living’ crisis, and endless tiresome predictions of imminent recessions and/or crashes, 2025 is shaping up to be one of the better years for diversified investors – for returns, and also for the consistency of positive returns across asset classes. Similar to 2004, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2023, when just about everything was positive. Typical ‘70/30’ diversified portfolio are heading for another great year of double-digit returns. This is one of my go-to charts to help illustrate the value of diversification and patience, rather than piling into last year’s winners, and/or trying to chase the latest hot themes / stocks / funds / fads.

Aussie house prices on the rise again, but rents are yet to catch up

  House prices have been rising again since March 2025 with the RBA interest rate cuts, and prices are now set to accelerate with the new first home buyer lending rules. Since Covid, house prices have soared, but rents have risen by only half as much, so gross rental yields for landlords have halved while interest rates have risen. Given continued strong immigration and slow new construction activity, there will be enormous pressure (and scope) for landlords to raise rents further. Tenants will have to cope with rising rents, plus the nightmare seeing price rises take the dream of home ownership further out of reach.  Why I have recently renewed my interest in housing markets.

My latest webinar for IFPA- inflation, interest rates, stablecoins, crypto, gold, and Trump’s plans

This episode covers: Update on investment markets,  The latest on inflation, unemployment, interest rates,  What's behind Trump's attacks on the Fed,  Does Trump have a grand plan? Does it make sense? Trump's stable-coin plan,   crypto, gold, and more.  

My top 10 take-aways from this week’s ‘Alternatives Symposium’ in the Blue Mountains NSW

The term ‘alternatives’ covers a wide and varying range of ‘non-traditional’ types of investment, including hedge funds, private equity, venture capital, currencies, commodities, and the current ‘hot’ sectors: ‘private credit’ and ‘crypto’. Here are my top 10 take-aways from The Inside Network’s symposium on Alternative Investments this week. For me there were several surprises - most of them positive.

The US stock market is the second LEAST concentrated stock market in the world! Why all the fuss?

Alarmist commentaries allege 'concentration' in the US stock market. Nvidia has shot up to 6% of total US market value. But this is actually the second SMALLEST 'largest stock weight per country' in the world. Only Japan has a less concentrated stock market. The 5 largest US stocks comprise 22% of total US market value, but there are 20 countries where more than 22% is in just ONE stock. The 10 largest US stocks comprise 31% of total US market value, but there are a dozen countries where more than that is in just ONE stock. In Australia there is also rising concern that CBA is now 12 % of total ASX market value. Actually, this is still relatively low. What concerns me is NOT concentrations, but excessive VALUATIONS, and over-confidence that earnings and dividends will rise to justify current prices. &

June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors

Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.

'Time-in-the-Market' -v- 'Timing the Market'. Which is better? US share market outcomes

Share market returns over all holding periods - even up to 10, 20, and 30 years - are little more than a coin toss. 'Time in the Market' only works if you get the Timing right, which is mostly luck. Finance textbooks and retirement calculators are based on nice, smooth, theoretical curves that assume constant 'median' returns over long periods. But in the real world, only ONE person in the population gets the median. Half will get MORE (sometimes a lot more), and half will get LESS (sometimes a lot less). There have been decade+ periods of zero or even negative real returns. By the time you realise you're in the unlucky wrong half, it may be too late to adjust your strategy.

Virgin IPO – My 3 simple rules for IPOs (or: ‘This stinking mess again?!’)

Rule 1: If Private Equity is selling - Run. In the other direction. Fast. You can be sure the accounts will be riddled with fudged numbers, hidden liabilities, non-existent 'assets', and a pandora's box of under-handed skullduggery. Rule 2: Any ai (automated idiot) bot will tell you that the 'i' in IPO stands for 'initial'. But this is no 'virgin'. It's been around the block a few times. (Misleading PR. Refer to Rule 1). Rule 3: Ignore the glossy PR, high pressure sales tactics, highly-polished accounts, and do your own research into the business and industry. In this case, why would I want to be part-owner of an under-capitalised, foreign-controlled player in a highly parochial market that has never profitably supported more than one dominant player, which is a government-protected, ex-gov department that wrote the book on political schmoozing?

Slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Association seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney

Here are the slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Accociation seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney. Highlights: 4 things about the future we can predict with certainty. 4 things about the future we can be reasonably certain about. Plus we cover - human nature - investor behaviour - bubbles & busts - inflation - longevity - what's behind Trump's agenda, and will it work?

March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?

  Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors -  Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.

‘Buying the dip?’ – ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’? – the Aussie share market experience

Following my story on US market dips, here is the same analysis for the ASX: The Aussie market has had 36 dips of -10% or more since 1920.  Buying the dips still resulted in more 'Knives' than 'Bargains', and below average returns overall, but the outcomes were significantly better than buying the dips in the US market. 83% of dips on our market were led by falls on the US market. Of the few dips that were due to local factors alone, most were 'Bargains'. Where are we now? Will I be buying the dip here as the US boom deflates?  

After the mini-correction, should I ‘Buy the dip?’ - Am I ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’?

The US stock market has had 31 'dips' of -10% or more since 1900. We look at what happened in each case if you 'bought the dip'. In most cases, a 10% dip turned out to be just the start of a much larger fall (further -15% fall on average), and for a much longer period (more than a year of further falls on average). Overall, buying the dip resulted in poor returns over subsequent 1, 3, and 5-year periods, but there were several times when 'buying the dip' led to high returns. Where are we now? How does today's market compare?

Australia’s aging population - are age pensions, benefits, and tax breaks sustainable in future?

  Many retirees live more frugally than necessary, and die with as much Super as they had at retirement. One possible reason may be a rising fear that the current government age pension system is not sustainable and may not be there for life. Despite our aging population, Australia is probably best placed of any country in the world to maintain its government age pension system. Fears of its demise are probably over-done. However, it is probably inevitable that the age pension, and/or the generous tax-breaks and benefits that go with it, will need to be scaled back in future. Future retirees should aim for financial independence, not welfare reliance, to be safe. 

Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?

Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?

What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!

This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start.  Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!) 

Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with minor differences explained

The impact of US inflation on US shares has been the same as for Australia in my last story.  Returns are consistently LOWER when inflation is RISING, and consistently HIGHER when inflation is FALLING.  This applies to Nominal returns and even more so to Real returns.  The favourable share market returns over the past 20-30 years were driven largely by declining inflation and interest rates (and the policies that drove them), but that phase is over.  What this means for retirement planning. 

Bring on the Trump ‘volatility’! - My Volatility Spike Index separates the calm from the storm

Trump's first term was certainly entertaining, but was it volatile for financial markets? Let's look at facts, not mindless media chatter warning of  'more Trump volatility!', or 'another bumby ride!'. My Volatility Spike Index highlights and compares all volatility spikes since 1970.