Owen Analytics

Hello and welcome!

I started this web site in late 2023 to post my random scribblings on investing and investment markets based on my 40+ years of experience as a practioner and principal in financial markets. All my work is original, fact-based, and non-conflicted.

It is not ‘monetised’ in any way, and there is no ‘revenue model’. The newsletters are free, and contain no ads or marketing material, or sponsored material at all. I do not receive any direct or indirect financial or non-financial benefit from any company or provider of products or services referred to in the content.

I use my data, analyses, insights, and ideas to invest my own money, and also in my roles on Investment Committees, consulting to advisory firms, and providing data and analysis to institutions (like major bank economics departments, and the RBA, Australia's central bank).

Where I write about specific companies or investments, I will always make it very clear whether I am, or have been, an investor or not, and that is usually the point of the story – to talk about lessons learned along the way. Enjoy!

I have had the privilege of living through, participating in, and learning first-hand from, the best and worst of financial markets over the past 40 years

These experiences - plus degrees in law, economic history, finance, and a CFA charter along the way - have enabled me to develop a unique, multi-disciplinary, multi-dimensional view of financial markets, booms & busts, crashes & and rebounds - what drives them, and how to navigate them, from macro vision to micro execution as a hands-on practitioner, investor, adviser, and portfolio manager.

You can check out my bio here. Please subscribe to my Newsletter, connect on LinkedIn, or follow me on (Twitter) X

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Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years. Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors. How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles. How inflation affects returns on different asset classes. Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles. My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.

Owen’s Market Pulse: 11 September 2026: Soaring oil prices & bond yields dent share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Two negative developments this week: (1) Oil prices surged as Trump’s war on Iran veered further out of control, and (2) bond yields soared on rising inflation fears, another failed intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stubbornly high inflation numbers, and now Trump’s desperate promise of a US$5k gift to every American adult citizen if the Republicans win the Senate and House, which will add another $1 trillion to the US debt pile to be serviced and repaid by taxpayers and their kids. The latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities.

Sep 12, 2026

Company insolvency rate highest in 40 years, but we’re not even in recession. Things are about to get worse!

The business failure rate is currently running well above pre-Covid levels, and even above the deep and painful early-1990s recession. The problem is that business conditions are NOT even at crisis levels. Far from it. The overall economy is ticking along nicely – growing at more than 2% above inflation. Interest rates are not high, relative to history and relative to inflation. The RBA should, and now probably will raise rates further (as it should have done in 2025) Unemployment also not high, and still inflationary / expansionary. But things are about to get a lot worse, as the housing market and construction industry in particular are coming under increasing pressure from rising interest rates, rising costs of labour and materials, and government tax attacks.

Sep 10, 2026

Australia’s declining economic growth is mostly just POPULATION growth (immigration) – the lazy option instead of deep reforms to boost investment & PRODUCTIVITY

Yesterday’s national accounts confirm a disturbing reality for Australia: immigration-led population growth but flat-lined living standards. Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on POPULATION growth rather than PRODUCTIVITY growth. Productivity growth (and overall economic growth) have been in steady DECLINE in Australia for several decades through ALL governments. The problem is that all sides of politics are now bowing to populist pressure to radically reduce immigration, which has been the primary source of economic growth this century. This lower growth future will challenge Australian investors’ long-held assumptions of steadily rising corporate revenues, profits and dividends that have been based primarily on high immigration.&

Sep 04, 2026 4

August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues

Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.

Sep 01, 2026 8

Additionally featured in - no sponsorship involved.

In first half of 2025 - 80% of world share markets are up, and 57% are up by more than 10%. A good start to another good year despite a constant chorus of wrong predictions of imminent recessions and corrections by economists and ‘expert’ commentators. It’s been a broad global rally, NOT just ‘US big-tech’ lifting the world. Can the rally continue? There have been plenty of longer rallies in the past!

Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.

“Ashley has the rare ability to ground insightful analysis in solid data and to present it in readily understandable ways. His wry, detached style and focus on the long term is rare and willingness to share a lifetime of learning and thinking appreciated by all who come to know him.”

Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issues. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."

Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.

Hello and welcome!

I have had the privilege of living through, participating in, and learning first-hand from, the best and worst of financial markets over the past 40 years

My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors

Owen’s Market Pulse: 11 September 2026: Soaring oil prices & bond yields dent share markets

Company insolvency rate highest in 40 years, but we’re not even in recession. Things are about to get worse!

Australia’s declining economic growth is mostly just POPULATION growth (immigration) – the lazy option instead of deep reforms to boost investment & PRODUCTIVITY

August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues

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Half-time 2025: Good start for 80% of share markets. Defying tariffs, turmoil, tiresome predictions

June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors

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