What’s in your INCH Bag? One-in-a-million risks now seem more likely. Time to Prepare?

A decade I go I put together an ‘INCH’ Bag (INCH = ‘I’m Not Coming Home’). It it’s a bag I can grab in an emergency, with essential items for a post-apocalyptic world. Perhaps a nuclear winter, or massive earth quake or tidal wave or asteroid destroys infrastructure. No power, no internet, no phone networks, no water, no gas, no ATMs, no banks, no shops, no credit cards, no fresh food, no transport, no laws, or at least no police.   We have all seen this scenario in movies, but will it happen in my lifetime? I used to think probably not, but best to be prepared anyway. Sh*t happens!  But the world has changed, and suddenly the risk of major disruptions to critical infrastructure like supermarkets, transport networks, banks, etc have become much more real.  The big risk is no longer just natural disasters. It's humans (and/or ai bots built and let loose by humans). 

October 2026 Snapshot: Inflation troubles, Political interest rate decisions, ai wobbles

Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. So far this year I have remained bullish on shares and bearish on bonds. This has worked but share markets are facing increasingly stiff headwinds, despite economies humming along. Two big themes in October: 1) Run-up to US elections – why the outcome will probably make little difference to investment markets 2) Ai wobbles – with some ai / data centre flops, plus the Anthropic IPO

My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: “Why Australia’s Growth Engine is About to Stall” – the Politics of Productivity & Immigration

Australia’s economic growth rate has been DECLINING since WW2 – through ALL governments.  As Productivity stalled, growth via immigration became the lazy option for governments.  Why cutting immigration will cripple economic growth, create labour shortages, raise prices.  Why productivity-boosting reforms are urgently needed but have stalled and reversed.  The politics of the 1980s/90s reforms versus today.  Why I’m still bullish on property. 

My Cash Rate Barometer for the US says next Fed move is UP. Trump will not be happy! Here’s how it works

This model uses the same approach as my cash rate barometer for RBA cash rates that I have used for the past 20 years managing portfolios. It is not perfect, but I like it because it is not based on judgements or opinions, but on factual indicators of what the WEIGHT OF MONEY is saying - ie where institutions are putting their money. I place more faith in the weight of money than opinions. With the next Fed meeting on 28th October, here’s what the barometer is pointing to now for US cash rates. . .

My latest IFPA webinar: 5 hot topics for investors: Cash rates, Private Credit, Bond yields, Inflation, Return outlooks

Here’s my latest webinar for IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Covers 5 hot topics for advisors and investors: Cash rates – how high?   Private Credit – more problems ahead?   US bond yields – how high? Why they are important.   Inflation – why we’re into the next rising inflation cycle.   How inflation impacts asset and portfolio returns – why boomers got lucky, and why conditions and returns will be very different for today’s investors.   Plus audience Q&A

My Cash Rate Barometer says next RBA move is UP. I have used this reliable tool for 20 years. Here’s how it works

I have used this model for the past 20 years managing portfolios. It is not perfect, but I like it because it is not based on judgements or opinions, but on factual indicators of what the WEIGHT OF MONEY is saying - ie where institutions are putting their money. I place more faith in the weight of money than opinions. Here’s what the 5-step barometer is pointing to now.

3-Qtr time 2026: Heading for a 4th great year for global share markets. NOT just the US, it’s nearly everywhere (except here)

At 3-quarter time, we’re well on the way to a fourth great year for global shares despite wars, inflation, fuel crises, rate hikes, political fracturing, social unrest, and astronomical price levels. Although US stocks hog the media headlines, dozens of share markets across the world are BEATING the US S&P500 again this year (like last year). It’s not just a US boom. It’s global. Four-year booms are NOT unusual. There have been plenty of longer booms before a crash. Over-priced booms can keep running up into even more over-priced territory for up to a decade before crashing, eg the 1920s and 1990s. AUSTRALIA is once again LAGGING the US and the rest of the world by a big margin for a fourth straight year. For how I am making up for the ASX lag in my own ETF portfolio -  . . . 

Owen’s Market Pulse- 10 Oct 2026: Cracks in the a.i. hyper-hype?

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors. Global headlines were dominated by rising bond yields in the US and France. Rising US yields threaten to prick the ai bubble, while rising French yields rekindled memories of the 2010-1 sovereign debt crisis. Neither was enough to prevent US share markets from hitting new highs. Aussie headlines were dominated by the opportunistic top-of-the-market float of Firmus, the vastly over-hyped, over-priced ai data centre start-up cooked up by jailbird insider trader Oliver Curtis. (He may have done his time, but would you trust him with your money?) There were at least a dozen other red flags besides that. Sanity prevailed and locals rejected it. The latest helicopter view on shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities.

Post-chemo prognosis – Fairly good news: No final ‘all clear’, but no further surgery or treatment at this stage, just monitoring

Quick update on my post-chemo scans & biopsies after the scheduled 12 rounds of chemotherapy (Feb to August) that followed ‘hemi-colectomy’ surgery in January. The post-chemo scans showed up three areas of potentially cancerous ‘mildly hot’ activity.  Today’s news: Biopsies on two of them appear benign. The third will be harder to biopsy, but the oncologist and radiolgist are happy just to monitor with follow-up scans and tests. Overall, its fairly good news: Not a definitive ‘all clear’ yet, but nothing serious enough to require immediate further surgery or treatment at this stage, just regular monitoring. PHEW!

September 2026 snapshot: Rate hikes + rising bond yields rattle markets

Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities,  and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. So far this year I have remained bullish on shares and bearish on bonds. This has worked but share markets are now facing more headwinds.

US 10-year yields ‘soar’ above 5%. Shock Horror! But actually they’re still rather LOW relative to history, logic, fundamentals, and inflation. Get used to it!

US 10-year Treasury yields ‘soared’ above 5% this week triggering countless shrill headlines and dire predictions of doom and gloom. Short-term market moves make for great ‘shock-horror!’ headlines but they are of little interest to serious investors. Turns out - even after the recent so-called dramatic ‘surge’ in yields on 10-year US Treasuries, they are actually still LOW relative to history, logic, fundamentals, and inflation. Here’s why.

I went 12 rounds with Mr Chemo. Came out pretty well, but some possible complications. Constant wait for the next step!

Here’s my report after the end of my 12 round chemo program following cancer surgery in January. 18 different side effects came and went from time to time, plus some still present. Side effects ranged from weird to annoying with only one really painful (but didn’t last long). Post-chemo scans revealed some possible complications, so having more tests and biopsies. Constantly waiting for the next step!

My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors

Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years.   Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors.   How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles.   How inflation affects returns on different asset classes.   Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles.   My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.   

Owen’s Market Pulse: 11 September 2026: Soaring oil prices & bond yields dent share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Two negative developments this week: (1) Oil prices surged as Trump’s war on Iran veered further out of control, and (2) bond yields soared on rising inflation fears, another failed intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stubbornly high inflation numbers, and now Trump’s desperate promise of a US$5k gift to every American adult citizen if the Republicans win the Senate and House, which will add another $1 trillion to the US debt pile to be serviced and repaid by taxpayers and their kids.   The latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities.

Company insolvency rate highest in 40 years, but we’re not even in recession. Things are about to get worse!

The business failure rate is currently running well above pre-Covid levels, and even above the deep and painful early-1990s recession. The problem is that business conditions are NOT even at crisis levels. Far from it. The overall economy is ticking along nicely – growing at more than 2% above inflation. Interest rates are not high, relative to history and relative to inflation. The RBA should, and now probably will raise rates further (as it should have done in 2025) Unemployment also not high, and still inflationary / expansionary. But things are about to get a lot worse, as the housing market and construction industry in particular are coming under increasing pressure from rising interest rates, rising costs of labour and materials, and government tax attacks.

Australia’s declining economic growth is mostly just POPULATION growth (immigration) – the lazy option instead of deep reforms to boost investment & PRODUCTIVITY

Yesterday’s national accounts confirm a disturbing reality for Australia: immigration-led population growth but flat-lined living standards.   Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on POPULATION growth rather than PRODUCTIVITY growth. Productivity growth (and overall economic growth) have been in steady DECLINE in Australia for several decades through ALL governments. The problem is that all sides of politics are now bowing to populist pressure to radically reduce immigration, which has been the primary source of economic growth this century. This lower growth future will challenge Australian investors’ long-held assumptions of steadily rising corporate revenues, profits and dividends that have been based primarily on high immigration.&

August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues

Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.

Wages falling further behind inflation – government and RBA stoking, not attacking, inflation

So far this century, wages in Australia have grown comfortably AHEAD of inflation, with public sector wage growth leading private sector wage growth. However, since the start of 2020 in the post-Covid era of higher inflation, wages have LAGGED well behind inflation, with both private and public sectors suffering NEGATIVE real wage growth. The gap between inflation and wages has accelerated once again over the past year as inflation remains high. Here I look at the causes and solutions for the problems of declining real wages and living standards.

Australian gov debt hits A$1trillion, US gov debt hits US $40trillion, but how do we rate in the DEBT OLYMPICS?

Sensational headlines this week - Australian government debt hitting A$1 trillion and the US hitting $40 trillion! But how serious are they really? Here is an update on my ‘Debt Olympics’ chart of all levels of debt (government, corporate, household) since 2000. Australia has one of the LOWEST overall debt burdens in the world. Our Government and Corporate debt levels are relatively low, but our Household debt is the highest. The problem is not Debt per se, but how it is spent: paying for current spending, handouts & political pet projects, or building long-term productive capacity to generate future revenues, growth and prosperity?  

Reason #2 for ASX’s 17-year Lag behind global share markets = chronically LOW RETURNS ON EQUITY

The right chart shows current aggregate ROEs for ASX companies versus major world share markets. The US has highest ROEs (even better than its historical average ROE) despite massive ‘ai’ capex spending. Australia has near lowest ROEs. The right chart shows the longer-term picture: aggregate ROEs in Australia versus the US since 1960. ASX aggregate ROEs have averaged nearly 4% LOWER than the US, which is a very large difference. American company ROEs are HIGHER than their cost of equity capital, so shareholders let them RETAIN most of their earnings to invest in future GROWTH. Australian company ROEs are LOWER than the cost of capital, so shareholders demand high dividend payouts rather than let management squander it. I look at reasons, implications, and whether this problem is temporary or more entrenched.

Reason 1 for the ASX’s 17-year lag behind global share market: SECTOR MIX

In a recent article I pointed out that the ASX has lagged the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS, with the lag ACCELERATING over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom.  It has not always been this way. The Australian and US share markets have been the best performing markets in the world for more than a century.  There are several reasons for the recent lag. The first is SECTOR MIX. It is the most obvious, but NOT most important difference.  More than half of our market is big Banks & Miners – but more than half the US market is the global tech giants. We also have a large Real Estate sector, but a tiny and troubled Tech sector, likewise Health Ca

Australian share market has LAGGED the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS! Our ‘Home Bias’ is costing investors dearly

The ASX has lagged global share markets for the past 17 YEARS since mid-2009, and the lag has ACCELERATED over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom. This is the second longest period of ASX lagging global markets in history, and it is costing investors dearly. Since mid-2009, the ASX has generated total returns of 8.9% pa compared to 12.1% pa for the overall international share market, which has compounded into a 65% difference in returns. Is it time to reduce allocations to the ASX and allocate more to international shares to chase the current global boom? If you do, it will probably turn out to be a classic case of ‘Buy High – Sell Low’ - the exact opposite of serious long-term investors who focus more on company fundamentals than price charts. However, th

My webinar with Michael Yardney: INFLATION – who’s hit hardest, what’s driving inflation, implications for investors

Here’s a link to my latest webinar interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. It’s a deep dive into inflation – including How everyone’s inflation rate is different, Who's hit hardest,  What’s really driving the current bout of inflation,   How inflation works in cycles,  Where we are in the cycle, Why inflation in the next decade is going to be higher than the past three decades, Why inflation is critical for investment returns and asset allocation, and much more.

July 2026 snapshot: US/Iran quagmire continues; Inflation fears & bond yields rise; Cracks in Tech bubble?

Global share markets were flat in July, ending the rebound since March after the start of the US/Iran war. Three reasons for the pause: 1: US/Iran war stalemate leaving fuel prices high, flowing through to broad inflation numbers, consumer confidence, spending. 2: US Fed’s new Chair Kevin Warsh sounding too soft on inflation. 3: Widening fears about the ai boom deflating. Four key developments in July. Why I’m still relatively positive for share markets in the short term. Plus the latest news (and a dozen charts) on Australian & global share markets, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin. (+ 'I told you so' on SpaceX - sorry!)

Australian inflation well ABOVE target once again. Here’s how I rate the RBA’s record on inflation targeting

Yesterday, Australian CPI inflation came in at 3.8% for the 12 months to June 2026. Down from 4.6% in March, but still well above the RBA’s 2-3% target. ‘Trimmed mean’ CPI is also still well above target at 3.6%. Despite inflation remaining too high, real rates still too low, and Federal & State governments continuing on unconstrained inflationary deficit spending sprees, the RBA is reluctant to raise rates further, fearing the government will once again neutralise the rate hikes with even more ‘cost of living’ handouts and productivity-free wage rises which entrench the inflation spiral. Has this tarnished the RBA’s long-term record on inflation targeting? Here is an update on my 6 Feb 2026 article on the RBA’s long-term record on inflation.

Owen’s Market Pulse- 25 July 2026: War escalation lifts oil, gold, bonds yields, hurts share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Oil prices surged as the US/Iran war escalated, sending gold prices and bond yields higher on rising outlooks for inflation and interest rates. These, plus Trump’s new tariff attacks and another “DeepSeek’ moment from China (this one called ‘MoonShot’), sent share markets further south. I am still relatively positive in the short-term (lower oil prices, which should support share markets) because Trump’s primary immediate goal must be to get fuel prices down in time to retain MAGA votes in the November mid-term elections.  My latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities - 

Housing inflation much higher than CPI: Owners hit hard, but Renters have highest inflation. Governments (all 3 layers) the main culprits

Today’s chart shows inflation rates for the main components of housing relative to CPI since 2000. Overall Housing cost inflation averaged 4.0% pa - ie 1.0% ABOVE CPI inflation. But there are big differences in the components of Housing. The main problem with housing inflation is GOVERNMENT. The highest inflation items are those directly or indirectly controlled by governments – utilities, property taxes, construction (State taxes, government supply restrictions, centralised wage rises), and rents (tax policies on rental housing investment, government supply constraints). Renters suffer the highest inflation as they tend to be lower income earners, spend more of their income on high inflation items (utilities, food), and have less spare cash to spend on lower inflation items (cars, gadgets).

My latest IFPA webinar: Inflation, Interest rates, war, oil, gold, bitcoin, Why ASX is lagging the world

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 10 July 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates, currencies, crypto. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Featuring: Why the Australian share market is lagging the US and the world. Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

What’s your personal inflation rate? How it affects your investment strategy & retirement planning

Today's chart shows Australian inflation since 2000 for the main categories of spending. The headline 'Consumer Price Index' inflation rate is a single number, averaged of a wide range of different goods & services with very different inflation rates. Some spending categories have inflation rates more than double CPI, while other items have actually fallen in price over the period (negative inflation). No household is 'average', so it is important to understand your own personal expense inflation rate in order to estimate how much CAPITAL you need per dollar of spending, and how much you can afford to SPEND given the level of CAPITAL, to ensure that your living standards are maintained and not eroded over time. The power of compounding magnifies even very small annual differ

My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ doing well after two busy/lazy years, beating Big Super again

My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ returned 30% for the two years since inception in June 2024 (14.5% in 2024/5 and 13.5% in 2025/6), beating its benchmark (VDGR: Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF) by 3.3%, and beating most ‘Big Super’ funds by even more. 30% is not bad given wars in Europe & the Middle-East, energy crisis, tariffs, rising inflation & interest rates, tax hikes in Australia, and political fracturing everywhere. The ETFs in the fund are the same as when I set it up in June 2024. I have not fiddled with or changed any allocations. I set it up in June 2024 with $1m of spare cash as a low-maintenance, ‘all-weather’ portfolio that would keep doing its job over the medium-long term re