US 10-year yields ‘soar’ above 5%. Shock Horror! But actually they’re still rather LOW relative to history, logic, fundamentals, and inflation. Get used to it!

US 10-year Treasury yields ‘soared’ above 5% this week triggering countless shrill headlines and dire predictions of doom and gloom. Short-term market moves make for great ‘shock-horror!’ headlines but they are of little interest to serious investors. Turns out - even after the recent so-called dramatic ‘surge’ in yields on 10-year US Treasuries, they are actually still LOW relative to history, logic, fundamentals, and inflation. Here’s why.

I went 12 rounds with Mr Chemo. Came out pretty well, but some possible complications. Constant wait for the next step!

Here’s my report after the end of my 12 round chemo program following cancer surgery in January. 18 different side effects came and went from time to time, plus some still present. Side effects ranged from weird to annoying with only one really painful (but didn’t last long). Post-chemo scans revealed some possible complications, so having more tests and biopsies. Constantly waiting for the next step!

My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors

Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years.   Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors.   How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles.   How inflation affects returns on different asset classes.   Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles.   My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.   

Owen’s Market Pulse: 11 September 2026: Soaring oil prices & bond yields dent share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Two negative developments this week: (1) Oil prices surged as Trump’s war on Iran veered further out of control, and (2) bond yields soared on rising inflation fears, another failed intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stubbornly high inflation numbers, and now Trump’s desperate promise of a US$5k gift to every American adult citizen if the Republicans win the Senate and House, which will add another $1 trillion to the US debt pile to be serviced and repaid by taxpayers and their kids.   The latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities.

Company insolvency rate highest in 40 years, but we’re not even in recession. Things are about to get worse!

The business failure rate is currently running well above pre-Covid levels, and even above the deep and painful early-1990s recession. The problem is that business conditions are NOT even at crisis levels. Far from it. The overall economy is ticking along nicely – growing at more than 2% above inflation. Interest rates are not high, relative to history and relative to inflation. The RBA should, and now probably will raise rates further (as it should have done in 2025) Unemployment also not high, and still inflationary / expansionary. But things are about to get a lot worse, as the housing market and construction industry in particular are coming under increasing pressure from rising interest rates, rising costs of labour and materials, and government tax attacks.

Australia’s declining economic growth is mostly just POPULATION growth (immigration) – the lazy option instead of deep reforms to boost investment & PRODUCTIVITY

Yesterday’s national accounts confirm a disturbing reality for Australia: immigration-led population growth but flat-lined living standards.   Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on POPULATION growth rather than PRODUCTIVITY growth. Productivity growth (and overall economic growth) have been in steady DECLINE in Australia for several decades through ALL governments. The problem is that all sides of politics are now bowing to populist pressure to radically reduce immigration, which has been the primary source of economic growth this century. This lower growth future will challenge Australian investors’ long-held assumptions of steadily rising corporate revenues, profits and dividends that have been based primarily on high immigration.&

August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues

Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.

Wages falling further behind inflation – government and RBA stoking, not attacking, inflation

So far this century, wages in Australia have grown comfortably AHEAD of inflation, with public sector wage growth leading private sector wage growth. However, since the start of 2020 in the post-Covid era of higher inflation, wages have LAGGED well behind inflation, with both private and public sectors suffering NEGATIVE real wage growth. The gap between inflation and wages has accelerated once again over the past year as inflation remains high. Here I look at the causes and solutions for the problems of declining real wages and living standards.

Australian gov debt hits A$1trillion, US gov debt hits US $40trillion, but how do we rate in the DEBT OLYMPICS?

Sensational headlines this week - Australian government debt hitting A$1 trillion and the US hitting $40 trillion! But how serious are they really? Here is an update on my ‘Debt Olympics’ chart of all levels of debt (government, corporate, household) since 2000. Australia has one of the LOWEST overall debt burdens in the world. Our Government and Corporate debt levels are relatively low, but our Household debt is the highest. The problem is not Debt per se, but how it is spent: paying for current spending, handouts & political pet projects, or building long-term productive capacity to generate future revenues, growth and prosperity?  

Reason #2 for ASX’s 17-year Lag behind global share markets = chronically LOW RETURNS ON EQUITY

The right chart shows current aggregate ROEs for ASX companies versus major world share markets. The US has highest ROEs (even better than its historical average ROE) despite massive ‘ai’ capex spending. Australia has near lowest ROEs. The right chart shows the longer-term picture: aggregate ROEs in Australia versus the US since 1960. ASX aggregate ROEs have averaged nearly 4% LOWER than the US, which is a very large difference. American company ROEs are HIGHER than their cost of equity capital, so shareholders let them RETAIN most of their earnings to invest in future GROWTH. Australian company ROEs are LOWER than the cost of capital, so shareholders demand high dividend payouts rather than let management squander it. I look at reasons, implications, and whether this problem is temporary or more entrenched.

Reason 1 for the ASX’s 17-year lag behind global share market: SECTOR MIX

In a recent article I pointed out that the ASX has lagged the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS, with the lag ACCELERATING over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom.  It has not always been this way. The Australian and US share markets have been the best performing markets in the world for more than a century.  There are several reasons for the recent lag. The first is SECTOR MIX. It is the most obvious, but NOT most important difference.  More than half of our market is big Banks & Miners – but more than half the US market is the global tech giants. We also have a large Real Estate sector, but a tiny and troubled Tech sector, likewise Health Ca

Australian share market has LAGGED the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS! Our ‘Home Bias’ is costing investors dearly

The ASX has lagged global share markets for the past 17 YEARS since mid-2009, and the lag has ACCELERATED over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom. This is the second longest period of ASX lagging global markets in history, and it is costing investors dearly. Since mid-2009, the ASX has generated total returns of 8.9% pa compared to 12.1% pa for the overall international share market, which has compounded into a 65% difference in returns. Is it time to reduce allocations to the ASX and allocate more to international shares to chase the current global boom? If you do, it will probably turn out to be a classic case of ‘Buy High – Sell Low’ - the exact opposite of serious long-term investors who focus more on company fundamentals than price charts. However, th

My webinar with Michael Yardney: INFLATION – who’s hit hardest, what’s driving inflation, implications for investors

Here’s a link to my latest webinar interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. It’s a deep dive into inflation – including How everyone’s inflation rate is different, Who's hit hardest,  What’s really driving the current bout of inflation,   How inflation works in cycles,  Where we are in the cycle, Why inflation in the next decade is going to be higher than the past three decades, Why inflation is critical for investment returns and asset allocation, and much more.

July 2026 snapshot: US/Iran quagmire continues; Inflation fears & bond yields rise; Cracks in Tech bubble?

Global share markets were flat in July, ending the rebound since March after the start of the US/Iran war. Three reasons for the pause: 1: US/Iran war stalemate leaving fuel prices high, flowing through to broad inflation numbers, consumer confidence, spending. 2: US Fed’s new Chair Kevin Warsh sounding too soft on inflation. 3: Widening fears about the ai boom deflating. Four key developments in July. Why I’m still relatively positive for share markets in the short term. Plus the latest news (and a dozen charts) on Australian & global share markets, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin. (+ 'I told you so' on SpaceX - sorry!)

Australian inflation well ABOVE target once again. Here’s how I rate the RBA’s record on inflation targeting

Yesterday, Australian CPI inflation came in at 3.8% for the 12 months to June 2026. Down from 4.6% in March, but still well above the RBA’s 2-3% target. ‘Trimmed mean’ CPI is also still well above target at 3.6%. Despite inflation remaining too high, real rates still too low, and Federal & State governments continuing on unconstrained inflationary deficit spending sprees, the RBA is reluctant to raise rates further, fearing the government will once again neutralise the rate hikes with even more ‘cost of living’ handouts and productivity-free wage rises which entrench the inflation spiral. Has this tarnished the RBA’s long-term record on inflation targeting? Here is an update on my 6 Feb 2026 article on the RBA’s long-term record on inflation.

Owen’s Market Pulse- 25 July 2026: War escalation lifts oil, gold, bonds yields, hurts share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Oil prices surged as the US/Iran war escalated, sending gold prices and bond yields higher on rising outlooks for inflation and interest rates. These, plus Trump’s new tariff attacks and another “DeepSeek’ moment from China (this one called ‘MoonShot’), sent share markets further south. I am still relatively positive in the short-term (lower oil prices, which should support share markets) because Trump’s primary immediate goal must be to get fuel prices down in time to retain MAGA votes in the November mid-term elections.  My latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities - 

Housing inflation much higher than CPI: Owners hit hard, but Renters have highest inflation. Governments (all 3 layers) the main culprits

Today’s chart shows inflation rates for the main components of housing relative to CPI since 2000. Overall Housing cost inflation averaged 4.0% pa - ie 1.0% ABOVE CPI inflation. But there are big differences in the components of Housing. The main problem with housing inflation is GOVERNMENT. The highest inflation items are those directly or indirectly controlled by governments – utilities, property taxes, construction (State taxes, government supply restrictions, centralised wage rises), and rents (tax policies on rental housing investment, government supply constraints). Renters suffer the highest inflation as they tend to be lower income earners, spend more of their income on high inflation items (utilities, food), and have less spare cash to spend on lower inflation items (cars, gadgets).

My latest IFPA webinar: Inflation, Interest rates, war, oil, gold, bitcoin, Why ASX is lagging the world

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 10 July 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates, currencies, crypto. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Featuring: Why the Australian share market is lagging the US and the world. Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

What’s your personal inflation rate? How it affects your investment strategy & retirement planning

Today's chart shows Australian inflation since 2000 for the main categories of spending. The headline 'Consumer Price Index' inflation rate is a single number, averaged of a wide range of different goods & services with very different inflation rates. Some spending categories have inflation rates more than double CPI, while other items have actually fallen in price over the period (negative inflation). No household is 'average', so it is important to understand your own personal expense inflation rate in order to estimate how much CAPITAL you need per dollar of spending, and how much you can afford to SPEND given the level of CAPITAL, to ensure that your living standards are maintained and not eroded over time. The power of compounding magnifies even very small annual differ

My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ doing well after two busy/lazy years, beating Big Super again

My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ returned 30% for the two years since inception in June 2024 (14.5% in 2024/5 and 13.5% in 2025/6), beating its benchmark (VDGR: Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF) by 3.3%, and beating most ‘Big Super’ funds by even more. 30% is not bad given wars in Europe & the Middle-East, energy crisis, tariffs, rising inflation & interest rates, tax hikes in Australia, and political fracturing everywhere. The ETFs in the fund are the same as when I set it up in June 2024. I have not fiddled with or changed any allocations. I set it up in June 2024 with $1m of spare cash as a low-maintenance, ‘all-weather’ portfolio that would keep doing its job over the medium-long term re

Happy 250th USA! What I learned first-hand from its 200th anniversary in 1976 and 50 years since

I had a front row seat at USA’s 200th anniversary year in 1976 as an Asian immigrant 16 year-old Aussie kid going to school in LA and Washington. This essay outlines how this experience changed my life and informed my understanding of some of the fundamental differences between Americans and Australians. 1976 was 50 years ago, so it is a good opportunity to reflect on changes since then to the 250th anniversary now.

2025-6: – Fourth straight year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios. How did yours go?

Today's charts show total returns from the main asset classes & segments for the 2025-6 year to June (right chart), plus 2024-5 (left) for comparison. (All returns are in Aussie dollars before fees and taxes). ‘Diversified’ portfolios (like Big Super) should return around 10% for the 2025-6 year - the 4th straight year of double-digit returns. If yours didn’t return at least 10%, find out why! (as a simple 70/30 ETF portfolio mix returned 10% without any fuss or fiddling, with minimal fees). Returns for 2025-6 were a little below last year, due to lower returns on Australian shares and bond markets everywhere. I outline the main winners and losers for the year.

Where are you on the inflation pyramid? Inflation differences by household type

The national CPI inflation rate is averaged across all types of spenders and households, but different types of households experience different inflation rates due to different spending habits. Working households have the lowest overall inflation rate, BELOW overall national average CPI inflation. Next are Self-funded retirees, with higher average inflation than working households, but still LOWER than national CPI. Government age pensioners on average suffer inflation ABOVE national CPI inflation. At the top of the inflation pyramid with the HIGHEST average inflation are recipients of government welfare other than age pensioners. Welfare payments including pensions are indexed at the ‘Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index’ or CPI, whichever is HIGHER, which entrenches higher inflation for us all.

My latest IFPA webinar: Still bullish short-term on shares, war/inflation, My take on SpaceX + more

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 12 June 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. My thoughts on SpaceX Are share markets over-priced? Is the end of the boom near? Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

Well into 4th year of global share boom. NOT just the US, it’s everywhere (except Australia)

We are well into the fourth year of a global share boom despite wars, inflation, fuel crises, political fracturing, social unrest, plus increasingly astronomical pricing. Although US stocks hog the media headlines, the US share market is actually LAGGING most share markets again this year (as it did last year). It’s not just a US boom. It’s global. Dozens of share markets are beating the US S&P500 this year. AUATRALIA is once again LAGGING the US and the rest of the world by a big margin for a fourth straight year. I outline several reasons for this. Pricing is currently very expensive – not just US tech stocks but everywhere including and especially Australia. Four-year booms are not unusual. There have been plenty of longer booms before a crash. Over-priced booms can keep running up into even more over-priced ter

SpaceX: am I a buyer? How it compares to my only ‘1,000 bagger’

As SpaceX is priced at crazy multiples of profits, dividends, cash flows and assets, and based on outlandish growth assumptions, it is not an ‘investment’ but a speculative bet. I would look at it only as a potential ‘10-bagger’ or ‘100-bagger’ (bought with ‘play money’, not serious money I or my family will be relying on in future). Here is my summary of how SpaceX compares to my only 1,000-bagger, FMG bought in 2003. The problem is that SpaceX fails 7 out of the 9 tests (3 to 9). Bottom line = If I were to buy SpaceX, I may ride the current FOMO boom a little higher, but it will fall heavily when (not if) the current boom ends. Unless Musk can grow profits to $1 trillion or so per year. Anything is possible, I guess! TIMING is just as important as PRICING – and both are lousy for SpaceX.

Happy King's Birthday, fellow British Colonial subjects! Here's my latest Market Pulse

Yep, a sorry reminder that in this day and age we are still a British colony, with a British Head of State, (a Germanic King!), who’s representative still officially must sign off every piece of ‘Australian’ federal and state legislation, and who’s head is still on ‘Australian’ currency notes and coins. Wake up Ostraya! Meanwhile, here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – shares down on US rate hike fears after another strong jobs report, bond yields up, oil up, gold down, AUD down, USD up. The ai boom shifted up another gear with the SpaceX IPO and plans for IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic to cash in on the crazy retail FOMO frenzy.

Income tax: initially temporary tax on super-rich, now permanent tax on middle class: Bracket Creep

Australia’s top marginal tax rate of 47% is one of the highest in the world, but it was 92.5% during WW2. Federal income tax was introduced in 1915/6 as a temporary measure to fund WW1, but became a permanent tax with the top tax rate increasingly reaching down to ordinary middle class workers. The income level for the top tax rate has fallen dramatically over time (in real terms), catching more and more taxpayers, due to reductions in the income thresholds and also ‘bracket creep’ – inflation silently dragging taxpayers into higher tax brackets each year. Initially, income threshold for the top the Marginal Tax rate of 25% in 1915/6 was 48 times the average wage, so it only hit the super-high earners. But today the top the tax rate of 47%

May 2026 snapshot: Markets see-saw in Trump’s endless ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus

May was a tedious month watching markets predictably see-saw in Trump’s ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus. Every time Trump announces his latest ‘deal’, oil prices, bond yields and the US dollar fall, while share markets and risk currencies like the AUD rise. Then every time the latest ‘deal’ falters or gets delayed or deferred, they all reverse. This will probably carry on for some time as there are no clear signs of the end of the war nor the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the tech / ai / chip /data centre boom continues to inflate, but the local market continues to lag. Will I be jumping in on the SpaceX IPO? In Australia: another RBA rate hike, high inflation, rising unemployment, falling house prices, and the great tax grab debate.    Plus the latest for share markets, inflation, interest rates, com

Chemo Round 6 update: Game of Gloves!

Round 6 marks the half-way point through my 12-round (12-fortnight) chemo program following cancer surgery in January. Pretty much back to normal day-to-day life by about day 6 or 7 of each round. Most of my side effects have been similar from one round to the next, but three appear to be getting progressively worse. One is the intermittent tongue muscle disfunction. Another is a gradual loss of taste. The most annoying side effect that is getting worse is the ‘peripheral neuropathy’ – nerve sensitivity / pain / damage in fingers and toes from cold temperatures and/or touching cold surfaces. It’s impossible to get through a day without accidentally touching cold surfaces and doing nerve damage.   The solution? Gloves! Here are the seven different types of gloves I use to get through a day.