Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Recessions

1-8 out of 8 results.
InflationInterest ratesInternational sharesRecessions
Let the US rate cuts begin! Usually good for shares, but it will NOT be plain sailing!

In rate cut cycles, shares have usually posted higher returns, but also higher volatility The big issue is inflation - has it been solved or will it revive like in past cycles? With monetary policy now being eased, can we rely on Trump or Harris for fiscal restraint to contain inflation?

Ashley Owen Sep 18, 2024
RecessionsAustralian economyInterest rates
Company insolvencies up 100%! - 3 reasons not to panic

Yes, company failures are up 100% - but here are three reasons not to panic Insolvency rates tell us about the Business Cycle - Where are we now? Where to next? Which industries are under most pressure? Why the next recession will see fewer company failures than past recessions Why I'm bullish on Aussie companies as a whole, recession or not

Ashley Owen Mar 21, 2024
RecessionsInflationAustralian economySocial & EnvironmentalEconomics
Australia's 'Misery Index': Inflation + Unemployment

  Australia's Misery Index: Unemployment + Inflation. Where are we now?

Ashley Owen Feb 16, 2024
Stock market crashesWars & military conflictsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsRecessionsRetirement planning
124 Reasons NOT to invest! - This time is different - or is it?

Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?

Ashley Owen Jan 17, 2024
Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesRecessionsAustralian economyFinancial MarketsEconomics
Why do share markets crash? – Part B: Update on Australia

The simple answer is that the Australian share market crashes (and rebounds) because, and when, the US market does. The US is the largest and most influential market that affects all global markets, asset classes, and investors. What happens on our local market is almost always driven by what happens on Wall Street (with rare exceptions like 1907 and 1951), regardless of local conditions, events, or pricing.

Ashley Owen Nov 27, 2023
Australian shares RecessionsAustralian economyFinancial MarketsEconomicsStock market crashes
Why do share markets crash? – A: Update on the US

Recessions do NOT cause or trigger share market sell-offs. Nor do share markets crash because, or when, they become expensive. Share markets fall when shareholders en masse suddenly start to expect imminent big cuts to profits and dividends.

Ashley Owen Nov 23, 2023
Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian shares Recessions
ASX reporting season in 4 charts - $40b wiped off profits! - where did it go, and why?

August is the main full-year reporting season for Australian listed companies, as most companies have June reporting years. For ASX100 companies that reported their June full-year results in August, total profits fell by one third from $116b to $76b.

Ashley Owen Sep 01, 2023
RecessionsInflationInterest rates
Last time we had an inflation-busting rate-hike Recession – shares surged! This time is Different –

Nothing scares investors more than news of a ‘recession!’ But why? Recessions have mostly been good for Australian shares! That’s right. Contrary to the popular myth that recessions are bad for share markets, in the vast majority of economic ‘recessions’ in Australia over the past 150 years, the local share market has actually risen!

Ashley Owen Aug 28, 2023

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The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.