Monday, September 21, 2026
Reason 1 for the ASX’s 17-year lag behind global share market: SECTOR MIX
In a recent article I pointed out that the ASX has lagged the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS, with the lag ACCELERATING over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom. It has not always been this way. The Australian and US share markets have been the best performing markets in the world for more than a century. There are several reasons for the recent lag. The first is SECTOR MIX. It is the most obvious, but NOT most important difference. More than half of our market is big Banks & Miners – but more than half the US market is the global tech giants. We also have a large Real Estate sector, but a tiny and troubled Tech sector, likewise Health Ca
Australian share market has LAGGED the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS! Our ‘Home Bias’ is costing investors dearly
The ASX has lagged global share markets for the past 17 YEARS since mid-2009, and the lag has ACCELERATED over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom. This is the second longest period of ASX lagging global markets in history, and it is costing investors dearly. Since mid-2009, the ASX has generated total returns of 8.9% pa compared to 12.1% pa for the overall international share market, which has compounded into a 65% difference in returns. Is it time to reduce allocations to the ASX and allocate more to international shares to chase the current global boom? If you do, it will probably turn out to be a classic case of ‘Buy High – Sell Low’ - the exact opposite of serious long-term investors who focus more on company fundamentals than price charts. However, th
My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ doing well after two busy/lazy years, beating Big Super again
My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ returned 30% for the two years since inception in June 2024 (14.5% in 2024/5 and 13.5% in 2025/6), beating its benchmark (VDGR: Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF) by 3.3%, and beating most ‘Big Super’ funds by even more. 30% is not bad given wars in Europe & the Middle-East, energy crisis, tariffs, rising inflation & interest rates, tax hikes in Australia, and political fracturing everywhere. The ETFs in the fund are the same as when I set it up in June 2024. I have not fiddled with or changed any allocations. I set it up in June 2024 with $1m of spare cash as a low-maintenance, ‘all-weather’ portfolio that would keep doing its job over the medium-long term re
2025-6: – Fourth straight year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios. How did yours go?
Today's charts show total returns from the main asset classes & segments for the 2025-6 year to June (right chart), plus 2024-5 (left) for comparison. (All returns are in Aussie dollars before fees and taxes). ‘Diversified’ portfolios (like Big Super) should return around 10% for the 2025-6 year - the 4th straight year of double-digit returns. If yours didn’t return at least 10%, find out why! (as a simple 70/30 ETF portfolio mix returned 10% without any fuss or fiddling, with minimal fees). Returns for 2025-6 were a little below last year, due to lower returns on Australian shares and bond markets everywhere. I outline the main winners and losers for the year.
April 2026 snapshot: Shares rebound on hopes of war ending, but stalemate the likely outcome
Share markets around the world rebounded in April after a very brief war / inflation scare in March, but the ASX remains a global laggard. Investors have two positives to support their bullishness. The first is hope that Trump retreats (dressed up as an epic ‘win’ of course) because his most urgent goal is to get fuel prices down in order to retain MAGA voters in the November mid-term elections. The second positive is strong US profits, thanks to tech / ai, and the bonanza for fossil fuel producers like the US. The war continues, but is increasingly looking like a stalemate, probably with higher energy prices and inflation for a while yet. Rate cuts or rate hikes? Share markets everywhere (not just US tech) are still vastly over-priced on numerous measures – including and especially in Australia. A major global correction is due
My latest IFPA Webinar: Iran war impacts on shares, bonds, inflation, rates, oil, gold, bitcoin
Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. This edition is mainly about impacts of the war (and prior wars) on share markets, inflation, interest rates, oil, gold, bitcoin. Plus audience questions. Plus thoughts on the likely outcomes of the war, and some historical context behind oil and conflict in the Middle East. NB. I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey. Enjoy!
My latest IFPA webinar: Rate hikes, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin. Has ‘ai’ killed the ‘ai' boom?
Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver. Plus audience questions on inflation targeting, gold, and shorting. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios – discretionary and non-discretionary. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. Enjoy!
Inflation (even ‘low’ inflation) is the largest destroyer of wealth - worse than fraud, fees, taxes
Inflation is the largest destroyer of wealth – even greater than fraud, theft, fees, and taxes, but it often receives the least attention. Past generations of retirees didn’t need to worry about inflation or asset allocation because retirement lasted only a few short years. But for today’s investors and retirees facing several decades in retirement, inflation protection and asset allocation are now critical. Even with the RBA’s so-called 'low' inflation target - we will still lose HALF of our wealth and spending power due to inflation during retirement. Worse still, if inflation over the next few decades is like it was in the last few ‘low-inflation’ decades, it will destroy up to TWO THIRDS of our wealth and spending power.
3/4-time score check on returns for asset classes & diversified portfolios in 2025. So far so good!
Despite Trump’s tariffs, rising political unrest across the world, wars, mounting deficits and debts everywhere, the ‘cost of living’ crisis, and endless tiresome predictions of imminent recessions and/or crashes, 2025 is shaping up to be one of the better years for diversified investors – for returns, and also for the consistency of positive returns across asset classes. Similar to 2004, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2023, when just about everything was positive. Typical ‘70/30’ diversified portfolio are heading for another great year of double-digit returns. This is one of my go-to charts to help illustrate the value of diversification and patience, rather than piling into last year’s winners, and/or trying to chase the latest hot themes / stocks / funds / fads.
My top 10 take-aways from this week’s ‘Alternatives Symposium’ in the Blue Mountains NSW
The term ‘alternatives’ covers a wide and varying range of ‘non-traditional’ types of investment, including hedge funds, private equity, venture capital, currencies, commodities, and the current ‘hot’ sectors: ‘private credit’ and ‘crypto’. Here are my top 10 take-aways from The Inside Network’s symposium on Alternative Investments this week. For me there were several surprises - most of them positive.
Are we living in ’volatile times?’ No. ASX volatility in the 2020s is no higher than recent decades
The media love shock-horror headlines about ‘volatility’ and ‘uncertainty’ about the future – but it is just mindless clickbait. We are not living in ‘volatile’ or ‘uncertain’ times any more than we were 10 or 20 or 40 even years ago. When was the future ever ‘certain’ (except in hindsight)? The only certainty about the future is that it is completely uncertain and unknowable, so the future, by definition, cannot somehow now be more uncertain! Today’s chart shows ASX volatility by decade since the 1920s, on three volatility measures. ASX volatility has been running at similar level since the 1980s. The 2020s decade is similar, despite Covid, inflation spikes, Trump, tariffs, the ‘US dollar crisis’, escalating wars and military tensions, and constant warnings of imminent recessions.
World share market pricing- Part 5: Growth in Profits & Dividends – Why USA leads & Australia lags
Today’s article looks at running rates for growth in earnings and dividends in each market as a context for assessing over-pricing on traditional metrics like P/Es, div yields, and price/book ratios. The stand-outs are Sweden (Spotify), Netherlands (ASML), Japan (macro & micro reforms), and the US (strong earnings & dividend growth engine). The Aussie share market has done poorly on earnings and dividend growth, not just relative to other countries, but in absolute terms. Why? Two words – Banks. Miners. Both sectors peaked a decade ago. Earnings and dividends per share have not even kept pace with inflation. Share prices have risen well head of earnings and dividends. The US market may appear very expensive on some metrics, but this is mostly underpinned by much stronger earnings & dividends.
World share market pricing- Part 4: Profit Margins & Returns on Equity– US highest, but sustainable?
This instalment delves deeper into pricing and valuations for the 20 largest share markets in the world. It goes behind initial pricing metrics like p/e ratios, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios, to look at underlying corporate profitability. The US market appears on the surface to be more expensive than other countries (higher p/e, lower div. yields, higher price/book, etc), but US companies are the most profitable in the world, which justifies higher pricing. However, US company profitability is currently running at very high – and probably unsustainable - levels, similar to the 1990s ‘dot-com’ boom which collapsed in the ‘tech-wreck’ crash & US/global recession. Company profitability has been much lower in Australia than in the US for many decades (aside from one brief period). Why?
World share market pricing- Part 3: Forward P/E ratios & earnings growth assumptions
Not only do global share markets appear expensive relative to reported profits, dividends, and book values (Parts 1&2), the ‘forward’ price/earnings ratios are even higher, as they assume outlandishly high profit growth for the coming year. This is a double-layer of over-pricing – ambitious pricing of current profits, plus ambitious assumptions of future profit growth. It is not just the US – in fact, US profit outlooks are probably more achievable than most other countries, including Australia, where pricing is off with the pixies! I also take a look at the positive and negative forces driving global profits. The media always focus on the negatives, but actually there are quite a few positives. What are the risks and were are the cracks likely to appear?
Share Market Pricing per Country – how does your country rate?
Here’s an update on share market pricing around the world, based on the two most widely used measures - price/earnings ratios and dividend yields. USA and India are way out in 'expensive' territory. Are these justified? Australia appears less expensive – but still over-priced given its market structure and sector mix. At the 'cheap' end are Italy, Brazil, Hong Kong, and Saudi Arabia – does ‘cheap’ mean ‘good value’? Is global share market over-pricing a problem? Is a crash imminent? Why have I remained reasonably bullish on global/US shares despite increasingly expensive pricing?
My latest webinar for IFPA- Elections, inflation, rate cuts, shares, Trump: is there a grand plan?
Here's my latest webinar for the IFPA's Investment Insight series from 9 May 2025. It's a rollicking romp through some critical issues facing long-term investors in these exciting times. Topics include - elections - productivity - inflation - rate cuts - share market action & valuation levels - and the dreaded 'T' word! Is there a grand plan behind Trump's frenzy of policies?
Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?
Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?
What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!
This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start. Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!)
Australia: Highest dividend yields in the world, so why the endless chase for even higher yields?
Australia has, and has had for decades, the highest dividend yielding share market in the world. This delivers enormous benefits to Aussie investors and retirees by eliminating many of the portfolio planning issues and risks faced in other countries. So why the endless yield chase - where so many people fall victim to high-yield traps and scams?
Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!
How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all
3/4 time score check: 2024 - Great returns despite constant 'recession' fear mongering
Here's my 3/4 time score check on asset class returns to September 2024. Almost all are positive and ahead of inflation. Most are doing better than their long term average returns. Which are the best and worst? How is the end of year shaping up?
CBA in 7 charts – the ‘Steven Bradbury’ of Australian banking – now suddenly a ‘growth stock’?
I am neither a buyer nor a seller - so why does it matter? Why CBA is the 'Steven Bradbury' of the banking world? Its share price is soaring but its fundamentals stalled a decade ago. What sort of returns can we expect in future? Here's my quick take in 7 charts.
My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ – Part 2: What’s in it?
Here is my '10-4' all-weather ETF portfolio. out of the 348 ETFs on the ASX, which 30 are in the 'squad'? which 9 am I using right now? why it's actually not about the ETFs - it's about the game plan.
Another good financial year for lazy investors! How did your returns stack up?
Today's chart shows returns from the main asset classes and sectors for Aussie investors for 2022-3 and 2023-4, including returns from a standard, passive 70/30 'growth' portfolio mix. How did your returns stack up?
My '10-4' all-weather ETF portfolio - Intro
This is my '10-4' all-weather ETF portfolio. It's a simple, low-maintenance, low-cost, long-term diversified ETF-based portfolio that I use for my own long-term money, and as a template for discretionary portfolios for thousands of investors over the past 2 decades. It's simple, effective, and it works.
Active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money - Why?
Active fund managers are almost universally useless. Here is my updated report on how much wealth they destroy for Aussie investors. Are they getting any better? Why do we let them take $4.5b from our pockets every year? Where does the money go? How much do they pocket? How much do they just throw away through incompetence?
Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again!
Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again! In 2023, almost all asset classes posted positive returns, most were above average, and most beat inflation, despite doom & gloom from the so-called ‘experts’. Here is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly asset classes for 2023.
Inflation is not the same for all. What is your own personal inflation rate? And why it matters when
The official inflation figures measure price inflation for a sample basket of items across the whole urban population of Australia. But this is just an average. Inflation is different for everyone.
Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive
Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive and ahead of inflation.
Case study: CSL – growth superstar at a rare bargain, or over-priced mature low-growth behemoth?
“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”
Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
“Ashley has the rare ability to ground insightful analysis in solid data and to present it in readily understandable ways. His wry, detached style and focus on the long term is rare and willingness to share a lifetime of learning and thinking appreciated by all who come to know him.”
Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issues. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.