Saturday, September 19, 2026
My latest IFPA webinar - Winners & Losers in 2025, plus Opportunities & Risks for 2026
Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA* ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 16 December 2025. Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, bonds, inflation, interest rates, commodities, crypto, and how typical diversified portfolio returns are shaping up. Plus I take a look at the winners and losers in 2025, and what to expect in 2026. Access to the webinar is FREE for IFPA members and non-members. No registration or login is required.
Global share markets in 2025: third straight year of boom in most countries
Here’s my quick visual snapshot of global share markets in 2025, with data to 18 December (full report in early January). 2025 was the third straight year of good positive returns on most share markets. Australia lagged the US by a big margin again for a third year. Three-year booms are not unusual – there have been plenty of examples of longer booms before a bust. Pricing is currently very expensive – not just US tech stocks but everywhere including Australia. However, share markets do not collapse because or when they become expensive. Over-priced booms can keep running up into even more over-priced territory for several years before collapsing.
Inflation (even ‘low’ inflation) is the largest destroyer of wealth - worse than fraud, fees, taxes
Inflation is the largest destroyer of wealth – even greater than fraud, theft, fees, and taxes, but it often receives the least attention. Past generations of retirees didn’t need to worry about inflation or asset allocation because retirement lasted only a few short years. But for today’s investors and retirees facing several decades in retirement, inflation protection and asset allocation are now critical. Even with the RBA’s so-called 'low' inflation target - we will still lose HALF of our wealth and spending power due to inflation during retirement. Worse still, if inflation over the next few decades is like it was in the last few ‘low-inflation’ decades, it will destroy up to TWO THIRDS of our wealth and spending power.
Inflation: wealth-destruction compounds over time – even in ‘low inflation’ years
This is one of my main ‘go-to’ charts to illustrate the destructive power of inflation compounded over time. Inflation has always been a silent, government-sponsored destroyer of citizens’ wealth, even in so-called ‘low inflation’ years. In the ‘low’ inflation 2000s and 2010s, investors became complacent, but inflation still managed to destroy one third to one half of the value of our money. Even if and when inflation is brought back down to ‘target’ levels, investors need to protect themselves against the destructive effects of inflation on their wealth and future lifestyles. Life’s a lottery – each of us will have different inflation experiences during our investing lifetimes (and different real returns from all asset classes), based on when we happen to have been born.
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.
“Ashley has the rare ability to ground insightful analysis in solid data and to present it in readily understandable ways. His wry, detached style and focus on the long term is rare and willingness to share a lifetime of learning and thinking appreciated by all who come to know him.”
Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”
Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issues. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).