Thursday, July 31, 2025
ASX down 8 days in a row - Ouch! Do sustained down-runs point to a market correction?
Runs of 8 straight down days are not that uncommon. In fact they occur about 50% more frequently than they statistically should if the market was 'random'. Long runs of down days were much more common in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. The market has been much smoother (less susceptible to sustained negative sentiment) in recent decades. Some long down runs were at the start of major corrections, some were in the middle, and some were at the end. But almost all long down runs on the ASX were part of a major market correction.
What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!
This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start. Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!)
Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with minor differences explained
The impact of US inflation on US shares has been the same as for Australia in my last story. Returns are consistently LOWER when inflation is RISING, and consistently HIGHER when inflation is FALLING. This applies to Nominal returns and even more so to Real returns. The favourable share market returns over the past 20-30 years were driven largely by declining inflation and interest rates (and the policies that drove them), but that phase is over. What this means for retirement planning.
Inflation Cycles & the Australian share market - the Big picture
Share market returns vary greatly in different inflation conditions. Returns are consistently lower (and below average) when inflation is rising, and consistently higher (and above average) when inflation is falling. This applies to nominal returns and even more so to 'real' returns after inflation. If the recent era of declining inflation is over, what comes next?
Australia: Highest dividend yields in the world, so why the endless chase for even higher yields?
Australia has, and has had for decades, the highest dividend yielding share market in the world. This delivers enormous benefits to Aussie investors and retirees by eliminating many of the portfolio planning issues and risks faced in other countries. So why the endless yield chase - where so many people fall victim to high-yield traps and scams?
January 2025 snapshot: Trump’s pro-growth agenda boosts shares + ChatGPT’s effort- which is better?
Here's my monthly wrap-up of financial markets for Australian global investors. What moved markets and why? plus I get ChatGPT to write the same report - let me know which is better! OpenAI founder Sam Altman says ai will replace humans in 868 days time - am I worried?
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