Wednesday, December 11, 2024
Key points: Australian and US share markets did well overall, despite heavy loss of life and attacks on our home soil. Volatile ride for shareholders, but patient holders ahead. Generally good for shares overall, limited only by war-time controls on profits and share prices.
War is scary, so it is tempting for investors to panic and race for the exits. It's important to look beyond the media headlines - knee-jerk, herd-following reactions are usually wrong. Usually positive for commodities demand, prices, mining shares.
Our largest export customer and source of wealth & prosperity - also a potential military threat - is this a problem? My answer is no, but for reasons you may not expect. Here is why I am bullish on Australia’s continued resource-based prosperity as global tensions escalate. Australians have been masters at turning geopolitical shifts and crises into economic advantage!
This company is sitting on the richest copper-gold mine in the world, but it has been locked up for 35 years and can't touch it. Political risk crippled what was once a highly profitable 'blue chip' stock. All investing involves political risk, but political risks can be the most volatile, hardest to quantify, and most wealth-destroying. Or perhaps wealth creating - in the right circumstances and at the right price!
Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?
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“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more