Tuesday, September 29, 2026
My latest IFPA webinar: Still bullish short-term on shares, war/inflation, My take on SpaceX + more
Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 12 June 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. My thoughts on SpaceX Are share markets over-priced? Is the end of the boom near? Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.
My latest IFPA webinar: Impacts of War on shares, bonds, gold, inflation: Rate HIKES or Rate CUTS?
Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Plus audience questions. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Are we heading for rate CUTS or rate HIKES? The BIG picture on INFLATION and implications for long—term portfolios Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. PLUS – I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey.
1973-4 Oil Crisis - Fact Check: impacts on inflation, interest rates, shares, FX, gold. Then-v-Now?
With the recent spike in oil prices there are a lot of myths about the 1973-4 oil shock causing the 1970s inflation, and also triggering the 1973-4 share market crashes. Here are the facts about what actually happened to shares, bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, oil, gold, and inflation before, during and after the 1973-4 crisis. SHARE MARKETS actually ROSE during the Yom Kippur War, OPEC production cuts and embargoes. The oil price spike was only part of a much larger 1973-4 share market crash where there were several other causes. INFLATION was already running at 7.4% in US and 10.1% in Australia BEFORE the crisis. Oil prices certainly added to inflation, but was not a primary cause. I outline many SIMILARITIES and DIFFERENCES between the 1973-4 crisis and today’s conditions.
My latest IFPA Webinar: Iran war impacts on shares, bonds, inflation, rates, oil, gold, bitcoin
Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. This edition is mainly about impacts of the war (and prior wars) on share markets, inflation, interest rates, oil, gold, bitcoin. Plus audience questions. Plus thoughts on the likely outcomes of the war, and some historical context behind oil and conflict in the Middle East. NB. I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey. Enjoy!
Impact of 31 wars & crises on share markets: mostly quick recoveries and ABOVE-average returns!
Three-quarters of the major wars and military flare-ups in the past century were accompanied by rising share markets (including the BIG ones in WW2). Each crisis is different of course, but wars generally create surges in demand and spending, flowing through to company profits and share prices, but also higher inflation. But even with higher inflation, in most cases the military crises triggered surges or rebounds in share markets. The initial shocks caused mostly sharp but short sell-offs, but two-thirds recovered within three months, and three-quarters were ahead by 12 months. More than half of cases, both US and Aussie share markets posted better than historical average returns from pre-crisis levels (and even higher from the crisis lows).
126 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?
It’s that time of year again – time to review threats and risks that might blow up our investments in the coming year. In the past we have had wars (including ‘World Wars’), revolutions, recessions, depressions, inflation spikes, deflation, pandemics, political crises, nuclear strikes, etc. They may have been devastating for human life and whole economic systems, but you would have trouble spotting their impacts on the chart. For 2026, we have Trump’s threats against Canada, Greenland, military actions in LatAm and Iran, ICE waging war on US soil, escalating US deficit/debts, Trump’s new Fed chair hired to cut rates, ‘ai’ destroying jobs, industries, and even destroying the ‘ai’ bubble itself! All scary stuff! Given the ‘uncertainty’ and expensive pricing, is it NOW time to sell up and wait for things to 'settle down' and become
World War II & share markets – Part 2 of 2: Through to the end of the War and aftermath
Key points: Australian and US share markets did well overall, despite heavy loss of life and attacks on our home soil. Volatile ride for shareholders, but patient holders ahead. Generally good for shares overall, limited only by war-time controls on profits and share prices.
World War II & share markets – Part 1 of 2: the Outbreak
War is scary, so it is tempting for investors to panic and race for the exits. It's important to look beyond the media headlines - knee-jerk, herd-following reactions are usually wrong. Usually positive for commodities demand, prices, mining shares.
Geopolitics case study - China: largest export customer + potential military threat - a problem?
Our largest export customer and source of wealth & prosperity - also a potential military threat - is this a problem? My answer is no, but for reasons you may not expect. Here is why I am bullish on Australia’s continued resource-based prosperity as global tensions escalate. Australians have been masters at turning geopolitical shifts and crises into economic advantage!
Political Risk case study: Bougainville - richest gold mine in the world - but you can't touch it
This company is sitting on the richest copper-gold mine in the world, but it has been locked up for 35 years and can't touch it. Political risk crippled what was once a highly profitable 'blue chip' stock. All investing involves political risk, but political risks can be the most volatile, hardest to quantify, and most wealth-destroying. Or perhaps wealth creating - in the right circumstances and at the right price!
124 Reasons NOT to invest! - This time is different - or is it?
Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issues. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).
“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”
Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
“Ashley has the rare ability to ground insightful analysis in solid data and to present it in readily understandable ways. His wry, detached style and focus on the long term is rare and willingness to share a lifetime of learning and thinking appreciated by all who come to know him.”
Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.