Friday, September 18, 2026
The Myth of rising Oil prices being bad for Share markets
Most years of RISING oil prices (even severe oil price spikes like 1979) were GOOD years for shares. Out of all four segments on the chart, the sector with the most years by far is the upper right segment ‘B’ which was when oil prices and shares were both UP. Many of the BEST years for Australian shares were when oil prices were RISING including 1978, 1979, 1985, 1989, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2013, 2019, and 2021. Conversely, some of the WORST years for shares were when oil prices were also FALLING (segment ‘C’ ), but these had little to do with oil - like 1930 (Great Depression) and 2008 (GFC). At most, oil prices have been a relatively minor contributing factor in share boom-bu
My latest IFPA Webinar: Iran war impacts on shares, bonds, inflation, rates, oil, gold, bitcoin
Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. This edition is mainly about impacts of the war (and prior wars) on share markets, inflation, interest rates, oil, gold, bitcoin. Plus audience questions. Plus thoughts on the likely outcomes of the war, and some historical context behind oil and conflict in the Middle East. NB. I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey. Enjoy!
Chemo Round 2: similar overall impact, but the mix of side effects is different each time. Weird!
Round 2 has been similar overall to Round 1 – ie nothing debilitating, life-changing, or permanent - and back to normal day-to-day life by about day 7 (ie 4 days recovery after 3 days of chemo). Still about a dozen side effects, but the mix is different each time! I put my chemo side effects into 5 columns: – ‘Gone’, ‘Less’, ‘Same’, ‘Worse’, and ‘New’. The ‘Worse’ and ‘New’ side effects are the ones to watch because chemo is cumulative - the body doesn’t ‘get used it’. It builds up over time, and side effects can become permanent. So far, the whole cancer surgery/chemo journey has been much better than I had been expecting. Very lucky that I have been having a pretty good run compared to many or most chemo experiences. It is still early days yet, but so far so good!
Impact of 31 wars & crises on share markets: mostly quick recoveries and ABOVE-average returns!
Three-quarters of the major wars and military flare-ups in the past century were accompanied by rising share markets (including the BIG ones in WW2). Each crisis is different of course, but wars generally create surges in demand and spending, flowing through to company profits and share prices, but also higher inflation. But even with higher inflation, in most cases the military crises triggered surges or rebounds in share markets. The initial shocks caused mostly sharp but short sell-offs, but two-thirds recovered within three months, and three-quarters were ahead by 12 months. More than half of cases, both US and Aussie share markets posted better than historical average returns from pre-crisis levels (and even higher from the crisis lows).
Iran war hands politicians another free ticket to blame oil prices for inflation & rate hikes!
Politicians of all flavours to this day still universally blame the 1970s inflation and stagflation on the oil shocks in 1973-4 and 1979. They also routinely cite rising energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as a main cause of the post-Covid stimulus inflation. The problem is that inflation was ALREADY high and rising well BEFORE each of these oil shocks. It is the same today, with inflation running above target even with oil prices falling over the prior year. Get ready for another barrage of lies blaming the war in Iran for inflation, rate hikes, and rising mortgage repayments. Once again diverting attention from the real causes: uncontrolled, largely ill-directed, productivity-sapping government deficit spending sprees, plus loose monetary policies (low nominal & real rates).
Chemo Round 1 – Much better than I had expected. So far, so good! - but it's early days yet
Round 1 of my chemo program turned out a thousand percent better than I was expecting. Seems I have been very lucky. I had a bunch of minor (and some very whacky) side effects, but none of the major problems that are common with chemo. Essentially back to feeling 100% after day seven of the cycle, and back to normal day-to-day activities. The only big changes have been with my dramatic weight changes. It’s early days yet of course, but so far so good! Round 2 starts in a couple of days (11 March) so wish me luck!
Feb2026 snapshot: Just when I thought it was safe to issue a monthly report Trump starts another war
My essential wrap‑up of global markets for Aussie investors. Trump’s main domestic challenge is voters facing cost‑of‑living pressures. Any action that lifts oil prices risks pushing prices higher across the economy. Share markets rose globally — except in the US, where software stocks remain under pressure amid fears that AI could erode revenue streams. Investors are rotating from asset‑lite companies toward those with hard assets. Bond markets posted small gains as yields fell on concerns about slower global growth, potentially reflecting AI’s impact on jobs. Plus: inflation, interest rates, commodities, currencies, bitcoin and more.
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Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.
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Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.
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Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
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Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
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Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).