Friday, September 18, 2026
My latest webinar for IFPA– Shares, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold & more!
Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 14 November 2025. Covers the latest on share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin & more. In particular I outline my rationale for the seemingly high pricing of the Mag-7 stocks in the current ai boom. Does it make sense? Do they stack up?
100 years of boom-bust cycles on the US share market – where are we now?
This is the US version of my recent story on 100 years of boom-bust cycles on the Australian share market. It is clear that the current US boom has been rather LOW, MILD and SHORT compared to most prior US booms. The US has had virtually the same boom-bust cycles as Australia because the ASX follows US cycles very closely. But the extent of booms and busts varies based on "who's turn is it to have the bigger boom and bust". In the current tech/ai boom the US is leading, but the bust will also be bigger. It is not a question of pricing or valuations. Booms don't end because or when markets are over-priced. Over-priced booms can run up for many years before the final trigger for the bust.
How long and how high can the current boom go? 100 years of boom-bust cycles on the ASX
We all know we’re in a share market boom, but are we at the start, or the middle, or near the end? Here I put the current boom in context by looking at every boom-bust cycle on the Australian share market over the past 100 years. The pace of the current boom is actually quite moderate (although the US boom has been much stronger). There have been plenty of past booms that went a lot longer and a lot higher than the current boom. The longer and higher the boom, the deeper the bust, and the longer the recovery time. It’s not about pricing or valuations. Booms don’t end because or when markets become over-priced, or when reach a certain level of over-pricing. Over-priced booms can run on for many years. What ends booms is a trigger or series of triggers.
Whitlam, Nixon, the 1973-4 crash, and how the 1970s inflation crisis changed the world
The 1973-4 share market crashes in Australia and the US featured major political crises – Nixon/Watergate in the US and the Whitlam dismissal in Australia. But the main causes of the crashes were the battle against inflation, started in the mid-1960s but worsened under Nixon and Whitlam. The 1970s inflation crisis triggered three seismic policy shifts: 1) monetary policy; 2) central bank independence / inflation targeting; and 3) the shift to a whole new economic orthodoxy which delivered four decades of declining inflation and interest rates, plus high returns. That post-1970s golden era of declining inflation & interest rates, globalisation, free-trade and hands-off government are over. Now we are into a new era – with the return of inflation, big government, protectionism. Today we have several similarities with the 1970s. <
1987 Crash Part 3: How it shaped my investment philosophy
How I ended up on the right side of both the mid-1980s share market boom and the October 1987 crash. How I came across and put to work the 4 Rules that work in all market cycles. How the real world is the exact opposite of what academic finance theory teaches. How one-off extreme ‘outlier’ events like the 1987 crash are ignored by finance theory, but they are what define our lives, and determine our future wealth. This is the story of my experiences before, during, and after the Crash
October 2025 snapshot: Global shares up, US rates down, Gold at fever pitch
Global share markets posted a seventh straight month of gains, through yet another US debt ceiling / government shut-down crisis. Wrap-up of shares here and around the world - what were the winners, losers, and why? The US Fed's 5th rate cut despite still-high inflation, but the RBA is not cutting rates here. Gold enters retail silly-season. Plus I cover currencies, commodities, interest rates, inflation, crypto, and more.
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.
“Ashley has the rare ability to ground insightful analysis in solid data and to present it in readily understandable ways. His wry, detached style and focus on the long term is rare and willingness to share a lifetime of learning and thinking appreciated by all who come to know him.”
Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”
Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issues. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).