Saturday, September 19, 2026
Wages Growth -v- Inflation: Are wages lagging inflation, or driving it? Public -v- Private sector?
There has been much media commentary around public sector wages driving inflation. Here are the facts. It is true that public sector wages growth is currently running head of the private sector, but only this year. In the prior 4 years, public sector wages lagged the private sector. Over the past 10 years, wages in both public and private sectors have lagged inflation by similar margins. Both are yet to catch up to the 2021-3 inflation surge. Prior to Covid, public and private sector wages both grew well AHEAD of inflation, with public beating private. Productivity matters! In previous decades, we had rising real wages plus declining inflation, thanks to productivity gains. But in the current era of zero productivity gains, wage growth ahead of inflation is likely to keep upward pressure on inflation and
My latest webinar for IFPA- inflation, interest rates, stablecoins, crypto, gold, and Trump’s plans
This episode covers: Update on investment markets, The latest on inflation, unemployment, interest rates, What's behind Trump's attacks on the Fed, Does Trump have a grand plan? Does it make sense? Trump's stable-coin plan, crypto, gold, and more.
My top 10 take-aways from this week’s ‘Alternatives Symposium’ in the Blue Mountains NSW
The term ‘alternatives’ covers a wide and varying range of ‘non-traditional’ types of investment, including hedge funds, private equity, venture capital, currencies, commodities, and the current ‘hot’ sectors: ‘private credit’ and ‘crypto’. Here are my top 10 take-aways from The Inside Network’s symposium on Alternative Investments this week. For me there were several surprises - most of them positive.
Are we living in ’volatile times?’ No. ASX volatility in the 2020s is no higher than recent decades
The media love shock-horror headlines about ‘volatility’ and ‘uncertainty’ about the future – but it is just mindless clickbait. We are not living in ‘volatile’ or ‘uncertain’ times any more than we were 10 or 20 or 40 even years ago. When was the future ever ‘certain’ (except in hindsight)? The only certainty about the future is that it is completely uncertain and unknowable, so the future, by definition, cannot somehow now be more uncertain! Today’s chart shows ASX volatility by decade since the 1920s, on three volatility measures. ASX volatility has been running at similar level since the 1980s. The 2020s decade is similar, despite Covid, inflation spikes, Trump, tariffs, the ‘US dollar crisis’, escalating wars and military tensions, and constant warnings of imminent recessions.
World share market pricing- Part 6: What price growth? Ben Graham’s ‘PEG’ ratio and ‘8.5 Rule’
Most share markets appear over-priced on traditional metrics like P/E, dividend yields, price/book. Here are two valuation methods that take account of different growth rates to estimate a fair price for growth. Australia has the 2nd highest (dearest) PEG ratio in the world. US PEG ratios are better, but still too high, even with the its higher profitability, ROE, earnings & div growth. On Ben Graham's 8.5 Rule, the US is around fair price for its higher rates of profitability and growth. Australia is much more expensive relative to growth, due to its poor earnings per share growth, low profit margins, and high div payouts. There are supply-side limits to growth that not even US Exceptionalism has overcome.
“Ashley has the rare ability to ground insightful analysis in solid data and to present it in readily understandable ways. His wry, detached style and focus on the long term is rare and willingness to share a lifetime of learning and thinking appreciated by all who come to know him.”
Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”
Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issues. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).