Saturday, October 17, 2026
Where are you on the inflation pyramid? Inflation differences by household type
The national CPI inflation rate is averaged across all types of spenders and households, but different types of households experience different inflation rates due to different spending habits. Working households have the lowest overall inflation rate, BELOW overall national average CPI inflation. Next are Self-funded retirees, with higher average inflation than working households, but still LOWER than national CPI. Government age pensioners on average suffer inflation ABOVE national CPI inflation. At the top of the inflation pyramid with the HIGHEST average inflation are recipients of government welfare other than age pensioners. Welfare payments including pensions are indexed at the ‘Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index’ or CPI, whichever is HIGHER, which entrenches higher inflation for us all.
My latest IFPA webinar: Still bullish short-term on shares, war/inflation, My take on SpaceX + more
Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 12 June 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. My thoughts on SpaceX Are share markets over-priced? Is the end of the boom near? Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.
Well into 4th year of global share boom. NOT just the US, it’s everywhere (except Australia)
We are well into the fourth year of a global share boom despite wars, inflation, fuel crises, political fracturing, social unrest, plus increasingly astronomical pricing. Although US stocks hog the media headlines, the US share market is actually LAGGING most share markets again this year (as it did last year). It’s not just a US boom. It’s global. Dozens of share markets are beating the US S&P500 this year. AUATRALIA is once again LAGGING the US and the rest of the world by a big margin for a fourth straight year. I outline several reasons for this. Pricing is currently very expensive – not just US tech stocks but everywhere including and especially Australia. Four-year booms are not unusual. There have been plenty of longer booms before a crash. Over-priced booms can keep running up into even more over-priced ter
SpaceX: am I a buyer? How it compares to my only ‘1,000 bagger’
As SpaceX is priced at crazy multiples of profits, dividends, cash flows and assets, and based on outlandish growth assumptions, it is not an ‘investment’ but a speculative bet. I would look at it only as a potential ‘10-bagger’ or ‘100-bagger’ (bought with ‘play money’, not serious money I or my family will be relying on in future). Here is my summary of how SpaceX compares to my only 1,000-bagger, FMG bought in 2003. The problem is that SpaceX fails 7 out of the 9 tests (3 to 9). Bottom line = If I were to buy SpaceX, I may ride the current FOMO boom a little higher, but it will fall heavily when (not if) the current boom ends. Unless Musk can grow profits to $1 trillion or so per year. Anything is possible, I guess! TIMING is just as important as PRICING – and both are lousy for SpaceX.
Happy King's Birthday, fellow British Colonial subjects! Here's my latest Market Pulse
Yep, a sorry reminder that in this day and age we are still a British colony, with a British Head of State, (a Germanic King!), who’s representative still officially must sign off every piece of ‘Australian’ federal and state legislation, and who’s head is still on ‘Australian’ currency notes and coins. Wake up Ostraya! Meanwhile, here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – shares down on US rate hike fears after another strong jobs report, bond yields up, oil up, gold down, AUD down, USD up. The ai boom shifted up another gear with the SpaceX IPO and plans for IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic to cash in on the crazy retail FOMO frenzy.
Income tax: initially temporary tax on super-rich, now permanent tax on middle class: Bracket Creep
Australia’s top marginal tax rate of 47% is one of the highest in the world, but it was 92.5% during WW2. Federal income tax was introduced in 1915/6 as a temporary measure to fund WW1, but became a permanent tax with the top tax rate increasingly reaching down to ordinary middle class workers. The income level for the top tax rate has fallen dramatically over time (in real terms), catching more and more taxpayers, due to reductions in the income thresholds and also ‘bracket creep’ – inflation silently dragging taxpayers into higher tax brackets each year. Initially, income threshold for the top the Marginal Tax rate of 25% in 1915/6 was 48 times the average wage, so it only hit the super-high earners. But today the top the tax rate of 47%
May 2026 snapshot: Markets see-saw in Trump’s endless ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus
May was a tedious month watching markets predictably see-saw in Trump’s ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus. Every time Trump announces his latest ‘deal’, oil prices, bond yields and the US dollar fall, while share markets and risk currencies like the AUD rise. Then every time the latest ‘deal’ falters or gets delayed or deferred, they all reverse. This will probably carry on for some time as there are no clear signs of the end of the war nor the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the tech / ai / chip /data centre boom continues to inflate, but the local market continues to lag. Will I be jumping in on the SpaceX IPO? In Australia: another RBA rate hike, high inflation, rising unemployment, falling house prices, and the great tax grab debate. Plus the latest for share markets, inflation, interest rates, com
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