Thursday, October 01, 2026
Australian inflation well ABOVE target once again. Here’s how I rate the RBA’s record on inflation targeting
Yesterday, Australian CPI inflation came in at 3.8% for the 12 months to June 2026. Down from 4.6% in March, but still well above the RBA’s 2-3% target. ‘Trimmed mean’ CPI is also still well above target at 3.6%. Despite inflation remaining too high, real rates still too low, and Federal & State governments continuing on unconstrained inflationary deficit spending sprees, the RBA is reluctant to raise rates further, fearing the government will once again neutralise the rate hikes with even more ‘cost of living’ handouts and productivity-free wage rises which entrench the inflation spiral. Has this tarnished the RBA’s long-term record on inflation targeting? Here is an update on my 6 Feb 2026 article on the RBA’s long-term record on inflation.
Owen’s Market Pulse- 25 July 2026: War escalation lifts oil, gold, bonds yields, hurts share markets
Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Oil prices surged as the US/Iran war escalated, sending gold prices and bond yields higher on rising outlooks for inflation and interest rates. These, plus Trump’s new tariff attacks and another “DeepSeek’ moment from China (this one called ‘MoonShot’), sent share markets further south. I am still relatively positive in the short-term (lower oil prices, which should support share markets) because Trump’s primary immediate goal must be to get fuel prices down in time to retain MAGA votes in the November mid-term elections. My latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities -
Housing inflation much higher than CPI: Owners hit hard, but Renters have highest inflation. Governments (all 3 layers) the main culprits
Today’s chart shows inflation rates for the main components of housing relative to CPI since 2000. Overall Housing cost inflation averaged 4.0% pa - ie 1.0% ABOVE CPI inflation. But there are big differences in the components of Housing. The main problem with housing inflation is GOVERNMENT. The highest inflation items are those directly or indirectly controlled by governments – utilities, property taxes, construction (State taxes, government supply restrictions, centralised wage rises), and rents (tax policies on rental housing investment, government supply constraints). Renters suffer the highest inflation as they tend to be lower income earners, spend more of their income on high inflation items (utilities, food), and have less spare cash to spend on lower inflation items (cars, gadgets).
My latest IFPA webinar: Inflation, Interest rates, war, oil, gold, bitcoin, Why ASX is lagging the world
Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 10 July 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates, currencies, crypto. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Featuring: Why the Australian share market is lagging the US and the world. Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.
What’s your personal inflation rate? How it affects your investment strategy & retirement planning
Today's chart shows Australian inflation since 2000 for the main categories of spending. The headline 'Consumer Price Index' inflation rate is a single number, averaged of a wide range of different goods & services with very different inflation rates. Some spending categories have inflation rates more than double CPI, while other items have actually fallen in price over the period (negative inflation). No household is 'average', so it is important to understand your own personal expense inflation rate in order to estimate how much CAPITAL you need per dollar of spending, and how much you can afford to SPEND given the level of CAPITAL, to ensure that your living standards are maintained and not eroded over time. The power of compounding magnifies even very small annual differ
My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ doing well after two busy/lazy years, beating Big Super again
My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ returned 30% for the two years since inception in June 2024 (14.5% in 2024/5 and 13.5% in 2025/6), beating its benchmark (VDGR: Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF) by 3.3%, and beating most ‘Big Super’ funds by even more. 30% is not bad given wars in Europe & the Middle-East, energy crisis, tariffs, rising inflation & interest rates, tax hikes in Australia, and political fracturing everywhere. The ETFs in the fund are the same as when I set it up in June 2024. I have not fiddled with or changed any allocations. I set it up in June 2024 with $1m of spare cash as a low-maintenance, ‘all-weather’ portfolio that would keep doing its job over the medium-long term re
Happy 250th USA! What I learned first-hand from its 200th anniversary in 1976 and 50 years since
I had a front row seat at USA’s 200th anniversary year in 1976 as an Asian immigrant 16 year-old Aussie kid going to school in LA and Washington. This essay outlines how this experience changed my life and informed my understanding of some of the fundamental differences between Americans and Australians. 1976 was 50 years ago, so it is a good opportunity to reflect on changes since then to the 250th anniversary now.
2025-6: – Fourth straight year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios. How did yours go?
Today's charts show total returns from the main asset classes & segments for the 2025-6 year to June (right chart), plus 2024-5 (left) for comparison. (All returns are in Aussie dollars before fees and taxes). ‘Diversified’ portfolios (like Big Super) should return around 10% for the 2025-6 year - the 4th straight year of double-digit returns. If yours didn’t return at least 10%, find out why! (as a simple 70/30 ETF portfolio mix returned 10% without any fuss or fiddling, with minimal fees). Returns for 2025-6 were a little below last year, due to lower returns on Australian shares and bond markets everywhere. I outline the main winners and losers for the year.
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