My latest IFPA webinar: Impacts of War on shares, bonds, gold, inflation: Rate HIKES or Rate CUTS?

• With the recent spike in oil prices there are a lot of myths about the 1973-4 oil shock causing the 1970s inflation, and also triggering the 1973-4 share market crashes.
• Here are the facts about what actually happened to shares, bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, oil, gold, and inflation before, during and after the 1973-4 crisis.
• SHARE MARKETS actually ROSE during the Yom Kippur War, OPEC production cuts and embargoes.
• The oil price spike was only part of a much larger 1973-4 share market crash where there were several other causes.
• INFLATION was already running at 7.4% in US and 10.1% in Australia BEFORE the crisis. Oil prices certainly added to inflation, but was not a primary cause.
• I outline many SIMILARITIES and DIFFERENCES between the 1973-4 crisis and today’s conditions.

• Most years of RISING oil prices (even severe oil price spikes like 1979) were GOOD years for shares.
• Out of all four segments on the chart, the sector with the most years by far is the upper right segment ‘B’ which was when oil prices and shares were both UP.
• Many of the BEST years for Australian shares were when oil prices were RISING including 1978, 1979, 1985, 1989,  1995, 1996, 1999,  2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2013,  2019, and 2021.
• Conversely, some of the WORST years for shares were when oil prices were also FALLING (segment ‘C’ ), but these had little to do with oil - like 1930 (Great Depression) and 2008 (GFC).
• At most, oil prices have been a relatively minor contributing factor in share boom-bu

• Three-quarters of the major wars and military flare-ups in the past century were accompanied by rising share markets (including the BIG ones in WW2).
• Each crisis is different of course, but wars generally create surges in demand and spending, flowing through to company profits and share prices, but also higher inflation.
• But even with higher inflation, in most cases the military crises triggered surges or rebounds in share markets.
• The initial shocks caused mostly sharp but short sell-offs, but two-thirds recovered within three months, and three-quarters were ahead by 12 months.
• More than half of cases, both US and Aussie share markets posted better than historical average returns from pre-crisis levels (and even higher from the crisis lows).

While you are in Singapore perhaps you should ask your hosts why Australia, the most RESOURCE RICH country on earth and a NET EXPORTER of fossil fuels/energy, has to beg for essential liquid fuels from Singapore, a country with ZERO oil or gas of its own, Zero mineral resources, Zero raw materials for industry, and has to IMPORT EVERYTHING from food, fuel, minerals, metals, manufacturing inputs, building materials, and even has to import drinking water for its citizens?

'Self-Reliance' is NOT about 'Made at Home'. It’s about doing the BEST with what you HAVE. 

My latest monthly report on global markets for Aussie investors

March 2026 was certainly one of the more eventful months for investment markets! Here’s my quick wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors, including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, cash rates, currencies, commodities, and more.

I outline two practical and logical reasons to be bullish in the medium term – one is my take on Trump’s war agenda, the other is chronic fiscal diarrhoea.