Inflation

My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors

Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years.   Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors.   How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles.   How inflation affects returns on different asset classes.   Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles.   My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.   

Wages falling further behind inflation – government and RBA stoking, not attacking, inflation

So far this century, wages in Australia have grown comfortably AHEAD of inflation, with public sector wage growth leading private sector wage growth. However, since the start of 2020 in the post-Covid era of higher inflation, wages have LAGGED well behind inflation, with both private and public sectors suffering NEGATIVE real wage growth. The gap between inflation and wages has accelerated once again over the past year as inflation remains high. Here I look at the causes and solutions for the problems of declining real wages and living standards.

Australian gov debt hits A$1trillion, US gov debt hits US $40trillion, but how do we rate in the DEBT OLYMPICS?

Sensational headlines this week - Australian government debt hitting A$1 trillion and the US hitting $40 trillion! But how serious are they really? Here is an update on my ‘Debt Olympics’ chart of all levels of debt (government, corporate, household) since 2000. Australia has one of the LOWEST overall debt burdens in the world. Our Government and Corporate debt levels are relatively low, but our Household debt is the highest. The problem is not Debt per se, but how it is spent: paying for current spending, handouts & political pet projects, or building long-term productive capacity to generate future revenues, growth and prosperity?  

My webinar with Michael Yardney: INFLATION – who’s hit hardest, what’s driving inflation, implications for investors

Here’s a link to my latest webinar interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. It’s a deep dive into inflation – including How everyone’s inflation rate is different, Who's hit hardest,  What’s really driving the current bout of inflation,   How inflation works in cycles,  Where we are in the cycle, Why inflation in the next decade is going to be higher than the past three decades, Why inflation is critical for investment returns and asset allocation, and much more.

July 2026 snapshot: US/Iran quagmire continues; Inflation fears & bond yields rise; Cracks in Tech bubble?

Global share markets were flat in July, ending the rebound since March after the start of the US/Iran war. Three reasons for the pause: 1: US/Iran war stalemate leaving fuel prices high, flowing through to broad inflation numbers, consumer confidence, spending. 2: US Fed’s new Chair Kevin Warsh sounding too soft on inflation. 3: Widening fears about the ai boom deflating. Four key developments in July. Why I’m still relatively positive for share markets in the short term. Plus the latest news (and a dozen charts) on Australian & global share markets, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin. (+ 'I told you so' on SpaceX - sorry!)

Australian inflation well ABOVE target once again. Here’s how I rate the RBA’s record on inflation targeting

Yesterday, Australian CPI inflation came in at 3.8% for the 12 months to June 2026. Down from 4.6% in March, but still well above the RBA’s 2-3% target. ‘Trimmed mean’ CPI is also still well above target at 3.6%. Despite inflation remaining too high, real rates still too low, and Federal & State governments continuing on unconstrained inflationary deficit spending sprees, the RBA is reluctant to raise rates further, fearing the government will once again neutralise the rate hikes with even more ‘cost of living’ handouts and productivity-free wage rises which entrench the inflation spiral. Has this tarnished the RBA’s long-term record on inflation targeting? Here is an update on my 6 Feb 2026 article on the RBA’s long-term record on inflation.

Housing inflation much higher than CPI: Owners hit hard, but Renters have highest inflation. Governments (all 3 layers) the main culprits

Today’s chart shows inflation rates for the main components of housing relative to CPI since 2000. Overall Housing cost inflation averaged 4.0% pa - ie 1.0% ABOVE CPI inflation. But there are big differences in the components of Housing. The main problem with housing inflation is GOVERNMENT. The highest inflation items are those directly or indirectly controlled by governments – utilities, property taxes, construction (State taxes, government supply restrictions, centralised wage rises), and rents (tax policies on rental housing investment, government supply constraints). Renters suffer the highest inflation as they tend to be lower income earners, spend more of their income on high inflation items (utilities, food), and have less spare cash to spend on lower inflation items (cars, gadgets).

My latest IFPA webinar: Inflation, Interest rates, war, oil, gold, bitcoin, Why ASX is lagging the world

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 10 July 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates, currencies, crypto. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Featuring: Why the Australian share market is lagging the US and the world. Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

What’s your personal inflation rate? How it affects your investment strategy & retirement planning

Today's chart shows Australian inflation since 2000 for the main categories of spending. The headline 'Consumer Price Index' inflation rate is a single number, averaged of a wide range of different goods & services with very different inflation rates. Some spending categories have inflation rates more than double CPI, while other items have actually fallen in price over the period (negative inflation). No household is 'average', so it is important to understand your own personal expense inflation rate in order to estimate how much CAPITAL you need per dollar of spending, and how much you can afford to SPEND given the level of CAPITAL, to ensure that your living standards are maintained and not eroded over time. The power of compounding magnifies even very small annual differ

Where are you on the inflation pyramid? Inflation differences by household type

The national CPI inflation rate is averaged across all types of spenders and households, but different types of households experience different inflation rates due to different spending habits. Working households have the lowest overall inflation rate, BELOW overall national average CPI inflation. Next are Self-funded retirees, with higher average inflation than working households, but still LOWER than national CPI. Government age pensioners on average suffer inflation ABOVE national CPI inflation. At the top of the inflation pyramid with the HIGHEST average inflation are recipients of government welfare other than age pensioners. Welfare payments including pensions are indexed at the ‘Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index’ or CPI, whichever is HIGHER, which entrenches higher inflation for us all.

My latest IFPA webinar: Still bullish short-term on shares, war/inflation, My take on SpaceX + more

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 12 June 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. My thoughts on SpaceX Are share markets over-priced? Is the end of the boom near? Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

Income tax: initially temporary tax on super-rich, now permanent tax on middle class: Bracket Creep

Australia’s top marginal tax rate of 47% is one of the highest in the world, but it was 92.5% during WW2. Federal income tax was introduced in 1915/6 as a temporary measure to fund WW1, but became a permanent tax with the top tax rate increasingly reaching down to ordinary middle class workers. The income level for the top tax rate has fallen dramatically over time (in real terms), catching more and more taxpayers, due to reductions in the income thresholds and also ‘bracket creep’ – inflation silently dragging taxpayers into higher tax brackets each year. Initially, income threshold for the top the Marginal Tax rate of 25% in 1915/6 was 48 times the average wage, so it only hit the super-high earners. But today the top the tax rate of 47%

May 2026 snapshot: Markets see-saw in Trump’s endless ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus

May was a tedious month watching markets predictably see-saw in Trump’s ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus. Every time Trump announces his latest ‘deal’, oil prices, bond yields and the US dollar fall, while share markets and risk currencies like the AUD rise. Then every time the latest ‘deal’ falters or gets delayed or deferred, they all reverse. This will probably carry on for some time as there are no clear signs of the end of the war nor the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the tech / ai / chip /data centre boom continues to inflate, but the local market continues to lag. Will I be jumping in on the SpaceX IPO? In Australia: another RBA rate hike, high inflation, rising unemployment, falling house prices, and the great tax grab debate.    Plus the latest for share markets, inflation, interest rates, com

Inflation BIG Picture: Boomers got rich by lucky timing. Next Gen to get higher inflation & rates

Here’s my go-to chart on the BIG Picture on inflation over the past 150 years. Five BIG lessons: 1 - Inflation is global, because capital is global, and monetary theory/dogma/fads are global. 2 - Overall UPWARD trend in inflation over past 150 years as monetary systems moved from metal-backing, to exchange standards, then to unrestricted fiat paper money. 3 - Multi-decade inflation phases along the way as each monetary system is abandoned and replaced by the next. 4 - The big inflation spikes have been due to military buildups and war-time spending, same as past 2,000+ years. 5 - The recent 30-year golden era of declining/low inflation & interest rates, with high real returns for shares, bonds & property, is clearly over, as each of the drivers of disinflation have now ENDED and REVERSED, driving inflation a

Bitcoin is just a bet on the US tech hype cycle. Will it ever live up to its lofty ideals?

I do not own Bitcoin, but I do like the underlying utopian ideals of citizen-controlled digital currencies out of the reach of governments, banks, central banks, taxes, regulation, intermediaries, scrutiny, hackers, etc, and I have followed developments closely since the early 1980s. BTC is touted as a means of exchange, a store of value, and a hedge against inflation, political turmoil, US default. But in practice it has turned out to be the OPPOSITE. It is an extremely volatile tool for speculation and is only a currency of choice for drug dealers, arms traders, scammers, hackers and blackmailers. Bitcoin’s price actually just follows the US tech hype cycle (except it is seven times more volatile). When the tech boom bursts, will BTC fall with it, or will it magically start reflecting its true fundamental value (whatever that is)?

Australia’s highest cash rate in the world just got even higher – and the job’s not done yet!

Last month I outlined five simple reasons why Australia has the highest cash rate among its peers, and I warned that further rate hikes were needed to tackle inflation.  Today (5 May 2026), the RBA hiked rates for a third time this year, and of the course government blamed the war in Iran, but the fact is that inflation was already well above target BEFORE the war. Following the RBA’s third rate hike today, here is my updated story on why Australian cash rates are highest in the world, and will probably need to go even higher to tackle inflation.  

April 2026 snapshot: Shares rebound on hopes of war ending, but stalemate the likely outcome

Share markets around the world rebounded in April after a very brief war / inflation scare in March, but the ASX remains a global laggard. Investors have two positives to support their bullishness. The first is hope that Trump retreats (dressed up as an epic ‘win’ of course) because his most urgent goal is to get fuel prices down in order to retain MAGA voters in the November mid-term elections. The second positive is strong US profits, thanks to tech / ai, and the bonanza for fossil fuel producers like the US. The war continues, but is increasingly looking like a stalemate, probably with higher energy prices and inflation for a while yet. Rate cuts or rate hikes? Share markets everywhere (not just US tech) are still vastly over-priced on numerous measures – including and especially in Australia. A major global correction is due

Why are Australian cash rates HIGHEST in the world? Five simple reasons.

This is one of the most common investor questions I receive from advisers, and it is one of the easiest to answer. It’s fairly simple. Australians suffer the highest cash rates amongst their rich country peers (chart A) because Australia has: The highest inflation rate (chart B), The highest medium-long-term inflation expectations ie highest treasury yields (C), The highest central bank inflation target (D) – for no good reason at all, The strongest jobs market eg lowest unemployment rate (E) (apart from Japan which has a declining population and workforce), and The loosest / most undisciplined monetary and fiscal policies during and since Covid. Bottom line = locked-in structurally higher inflation

My latest IFPA webinar: Impacts of War on shares, bonds, gold, inflation: Rate HIKES or Rate CUTS?

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Plus audience questions. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Are we heading for rate CUTS or rate HIKES? The BIG picture on INFLATION and implications for long—term portfolios Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. PLUS – I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey.

1973-4 Oil Crisis - Fact Check: impacts on inflation, interest rates, shares, FX, gold. Then-v-Now?

With the recent spike in oil prices there are a lot of myths about the 1973-4 oil shock causing the 1970s inflation, and also triggering the 1973-4 share market crashes. Here are the facts about what actually happened to shares, bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, oil, gold, and inflation before, during and after the 1973-4 crisis. SHARE MARKETS actually ROSE during the Yom Kippur War, OPEC production cuts and embargoes. The oil price spike was only part of a much larger 1973-4 share market crash where there were several other causes. INFLATION was already running at 7.4% in US and 10.1% in Australia BEFORE the crisis. Oil prices certainly added to inflation, but was not a primary cause. I outline many SIMILARITIES and DIFFERENCES between the 1973-4 crisis and today’s conditions.

March 2026 snapshot: Not a dull month but I have two practical & logical reasons to be bullish

March 2026 was certainly one of the more eventful months for investment markets! Here’s my quick wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors, including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, cash rates, currencies, commodities, and more. I outline two practical and logical reasons to be bullish in the medium term – one is my take on Trump’s war agenda, the other is chronic fiscal diarrhoea.

My latest IFPA Webinar: Iran war impacts on shares, bonds, inflation, rates, oil, gold, bitcoin

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. This edition is mainly about impacts of the war (and prior wars) on share markets, inflation, interest rates, oil, gold, bitcoin. Plus audience questions. Plus thoughts on the likely outcomes of the war, and some historical context behind oil and conflict in the Middle East. NB. I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey. Enjoy!

Iran war hands politicians another free ticket to blame oil prices for inflation & rate hikes!

  Politicians of all flavours to this day still universally blame the 1970s inflation and stagflation on the oil shocks in 1973-4 and 1979. They also routinely cite rising energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as a main cause of the post-Covid stimulus inflation. The problem is that inflation was ALREADY high and rising well BEFORE each of these oil shocks. It is the same today, with inflation running above target even with oil prices falling over the prior year. Get ready for another barrage of lies blaming the war in Iran for inflation, rate hikes, and rising mortgage repayments. Once again diverting attention from the real causes: uncontrolled, largely ill-directed, productivity-sapping government deficit spending sprees, plus loose monetary policies (low nominal & real rates).

Feb2026 snapshot: Just when I thought it was safe to issue a monthly report Trump starts another war

My essential wrap‑up of global markets for Aussie investors. Trump’s main domestic challenge is voters facing cost‑of‑living pressures. Any action that lifts oil prices risks pushing prices higher across the economy. Share markets rose globally — except in the US, where software stocks remain under pressure amid fears that AI could erode revenue streams. Investors are rotating from asset‑lite companies toward those with hard assets. Bond markets posted small gains as yields fell on concerns about slower global growth, potentially reflecting AI’s impact on jobs. Plus: inflation, interest rates, commodities, currencies, bitcoin and more.

My latest IFPA webinar: Rate hikes, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin. Has ‘ai’ killed the ‘ai' boom?

Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver. Plus audience questions on inflation targeting, gold, and shorting. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios – discretionary and non-discretionary. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. Enjoy!

How the RBA scores on its inflation goal? Somewhere between 3 & 10 out of 10. Overall 8 out of 10

Since the RBA gained ‘independence’ in pursuing its 2% to 3% target range, inflation has only been in the target range just 32% of quarters, and 36% of calendar years. It has missed its target TWO THIRDS of the time – so 3 out of 10 for short-term inflation outcomes. But it was never a short-term target. Overall inflation over the period has averaged 2.6% pa which is in the MIDDLE of its target range. 10 out of 10 for long-term inflation targeting. Measured by decade, inflation has been WITHIN its target range EACH decade. Inflation averaged 2.3% in the 1990s, 2.8% in the 2000s, and 2.1% in the 2010s. In the 2020s inflation has averaged 3.8% pa so far, but the decade is not over yet. Inflation over the past 10 years to December 2025 averaged 3%, which is within target. So, through a host of major global and local crises over the past 30+ years,&

January 2026 snapshot – essential wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors

Here’s my new, improved, slimmed-down monthly wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors. It’s a simpler format for my new more complex life (with this pesky cancer thingy) Covers key global events, share markets, inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto, and more. Where are we now? and where to next?

I wrote a year ago the RBA should not cut rates. It did, but now has to correct its mistake- again!

I give the RBA 4 crosses out of 4 for inflation control. More than a year ago (before the RBA rate cuts), I wrote that it had no reason to cut (aside from political pressure). Rates were already too low (inflationary), so when it cut rates, inflation rose as expected. The RBA now has to correct its mistake (again!) The problem was that the RBA raised cash rates later, slower, and lower than the rest of the world in 2022-3, leaving inflation stickier here. Plus we have our unique centralised wage fixing system, cozy monopoly / oligopoly structures in most domestic industries, and governments running inflationary deficit spending sprees. What it means for portfolios – and how I positioned for this. Will the RBA hike rates next week? Will that be the end of it?

2025 snapshot: Boom continues but backed by profits. Expensive, sure. But no more than a year ago

Here's my global markets wrap-up of 2025 for Aussie investors.   Contrary to popular media nonsense, the current boom is not just confined to just a few US tech giants. It has been a widespread boom across industry sectors, countries, and stocks.   Share markets are vastly over-priced of course, but the big share price gains in 2025 did NOT stretch pricing further as they were underpinned by strong growth in profits.   For bond markets it was the 4th straight year of poor returns. Why I have been out of bonds.   Plus inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, crypto, and more.  

My latest IFPA webinar - Winners & Losers in 2025, plus Opportunities & Risks for 2026

Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA* ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 16 December 2025.  Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, bonds, inflation, interest rates, commodities, crypto, and how typical diversified portfolio returns are shaping up. Plus I take a look at the winners and losers in 2025, and what to expect in 2026. Access to the webinar is FREE for IFPA members and non-members. No registration or login is required.