Commodities

Owen’s Market Pulse: 11 September 2026: Soaring oil prices & bond yields dent share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Two negative developments this week: (1) Oil prices surged as Trump’s war on Iran veered further out of control, and (2) bond yields soared on rising inflation fears, another failed intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stubbornly high inflation numbers, and now Trump’s desperate promise of a US$5k gift to every American adult citizen if the Republicans win the Senate and House, which will add another $1 trillion to the US debt pile to be serviced and repaid by taxpayers and their kids.   The latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities.

August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues

Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.

July 2026 snapshot: US/Iran quagmire continues; Inflation fears & bond yields rise; Cracks in Tech bubble?

Global share markets were flat in July, ending the rebound since March after the start of the US/Iran war. Three reasons for the pause: 1: US/Iran war stalemate leaving fuel prices high, flowing through to broad inflation numbers, consumer confidence, spending. 2: US Fed’s new Chair Kevin Warsh sounding too soft on inflation. 3: Widening fears about the ai boom deflating. Four key developments in July. Why I’m still relatively positive for share markets in the short term. Plus the latest news (and a dozen charts) on Australian & global share markets, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin. (+ 'I told you so' on SpaceX - sorry!)

Owen’s Market Pulse- 25 July 2026: War escalation lifts oil, gold, bonds yields, hurts share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Oil prices surged as the US/Iran war escalated, sending gold prices and bond yields higher on rising outlooks for inflation and interest rates. These, plus Trump’s new tariff attacks and another “DeepSeek’ moment from China (this one called ‘MoonShot’), sent share markets further south. I am still relatively positive in the short-term (lower oil prices, which should support share markets) because Trump’s primary immediate goal must be to get fuel prices down in time to retain MAGA votes in the November mid-term elections.  My latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities - 

My latest IFPA webinar: Inflation, Interest rates, war, oil, gold, bitcoin, Why ASX is lagging the world

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 10 July 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates, currencies, crypto. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Featuring: Why the Australian share market is lagging the US and the world. Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

Happy King's Birthday, fellow British Colonial subjects! Here's my latest Market Pulse

Yep, a sorry reminder that in this day and age we are still a British colony, with a British Head of State, (a Germanic King!), who’s representative still officially must sign off every piece of ‘Australian’ federal and state legislation, and who’s head is still on ‘Australian’ currency notes and coins. Wake up Ostraya! Meanwhile, here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – shares down on US rate hike fears after another strong jobs report, bond yields up, oil up, gold down, AUD down, USD up. The ai boom shifted up another gear with the SpaceX IPO and plans for IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic to cash in on the crazy retail FOMO frenzy.

May 2026 snapshot: Markets see-saw in Trump’s endless ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus

May was a tedious month watching markets predictably see-saw in Trump’s ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus. Every time Trump announces his latest ‘deal’, oil prices, bond yields and the US dollar fall, while share markets and risk currencies like the AUD rise. Then every time the latest ‘deal’ falters or gets delayed or deferred, they all reverse. This will probably carry on for some time as there are no clear signs of the end of the war nor the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the tech / ai / chip /data centre boom continues to inflate, but the local market continues to lag. Will I be jumping in on the SpaceX IPO? In Australia: another RBA rate hike, high inflation, rising unemployment, falling house prices, and the great tax grab debate.    Plus the latest for share markets, inflation, interest rates, com

Owen’s Market Pulse: 23 May 2026 + Xi-Trump-Putin talks, Budget tax debate

Here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – US/global tech / ai / chip boom back in full swing (at bubble-like pricing levels) despite US/Iran war dragging on, high energy prices, and rising inflation. Primed and due for major correction, just waiting for the trigger/s. Share markets edge up a little, but bond yields on the rise on fears of inflationary government spending / debt, despite signs of slowdown as high energy prices blunt confidence and spending. Different world views from Xi with Trump and Putin, and the local budget tax debate in Oz.

Owen’s Market Pulse - 16 May 2026

Given rapidly changing markets in the current environment, and an increase in queries from advisers, portfolio managers, commentators and media, I have decided to share one of my regular tools to track key market barometers and drivers of global investment markets. This is something I do anyway in order to keep track of what’s going on and why. I track and analyse thousands of data points across all markets and asset classes, but the most important barometers and drivers of local and global markets for my purposes are: share markets (Aus & US), treasury bonds (Aus & US), currencies (AUD & USD), oil and gold.

My latest IFPA webinar: Impacts of War on shares, bonds, gold, inflation: Rate HIKES or Rate CUTS?

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Plus audience questions. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Are we heading for rate CUTS or rate HIKES? The BIG picture on INFLATION and implications for long—term portfolios Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. PLUS – I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey.

Open Letter to Albo in Singapore begging for fuel

While you are in Singapore perhaps you should ask your hosts why Australia, the most RESOURCE RICH country on earth and a NET EXPORTER of fossil fuels/energy, has to beg for essential liquid fuels from Singapore, a country with ZERO oil or gas of its own, Zero mineral resources, Zero raw materials for industry, and has to IMPORT EVERYTHING from food, fuel, minerals, metals, manufacturing inputs, building materials, and even has to import drinking water for its citizens? 'Self-Reliance' is NOT about 'Made at Home'. It’s about doing the BEST with what you HAVE. 

1973-4 Oil Crisis - Fact Check: impacts on inflation, interest rates, shares, FX, gold. Then-v-Now?

With the recent spike in oil prices there are a lot of myths about the 1973-4 oil shock causing the 1970s inflation, and also triggering the 1973-4 share market crashes. Here are the facts about what actually happened to shares, bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, oil, gold, and inflation before, during and after the 1973-4 crisis. SHARE MARKETS actually ROSE during the Yom Kippur War, OPEC production cuts and embargoes. The oil price spike was only part of a much larger 1973-4 share market crash where there were several other causes. INFLATION was already running at 7.4% in US and 10.1% in Australia BEFORE the crisis. Oil prices certainly added to inflation, but was not a primary cause. I outline many SIMILARITIES and DIFFERENCES between the 1973-4 crisis and today’s conditions.

March 2026 snapshot: Not a dull month but I have two practical & logical reasons to be bullish

March 2026 was certainly one of the more eventful months for investment markets! Here’s my quick wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors, including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, cash rates, currencies, commodities, and more. I outline two practical and logical reasons to be bullish in the medium term – one is my take on Trump’s war agenda, the other is chronic fiscal diarrhoea.

The Myth of rising Oil prices being bad for Share markets

Most years of RISING oil prices (even severe oil price spikes like 1979) were GOOD years for shares. Out of all four segments on the chart, the sector with the most years by far is the upper right segment ‘B’ which was when oil prices and shares were both UP. Many of the BEST years for Australian shares were when oil prices were RISING including 1978, 1979, 1985, 1989,  1995, 1996, 1999,  2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2013,  2019, and 2021. Conversely, some of the WORST years for shares were when oil prices were also FALLING (segment ‘C’ ), but these had little to do with oil - like 1930 (Great Depression) and 2008 (GFC). At most, oil prices have been a relatively minor contributing factor in share boom-bu

My latest IFPA Webinar: Iran war impacts on shares, bonds, inflation, rates, oil, gold, bitcoin

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. This edition is mainly about impacts of the war (and prior wars) on share markets, inflation, interest rates, oil, gold, bitcoin. Plus audience questions. Plus thoughts on the likely outcomes of the war, and some historical context behind oil and conflict in the Middle East. NB. I recorded this session while on a Chemo drip, so I provide a quick update on my cancer / chemo journey. Enjoy!

Iran war hands politicians another free ticket to blame oil prices for inflation & rate hikes!

  Politicians of all flavours to this day still universally blame the 1970s inflation and stagflation on the oil shocks in 1973-4 and 1979. They also routinely cite rising energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as a main cause of the post-Covid stimulus inflation. The problem is that inflation was ALREADY high and rising well BEFORE each of these oil shocks. It is the same today, with inflation running above target even with oil prices falling over the prior year. Get ready for another barrage of lies blaming the war in Iran for inflation, rate hikes, and rising mortgage repayments. Once again diverting attention from the real causes: uncontrolled, largely ill-directed, productivity-sapping government deficit spending sprees, plus loose monetary policies (low nominal & real rates).

Feb2026 snapshot: Just when I thought it was safe to issue a monthly report Trump starts another war

My essential wrap‑up of global markets for Aussie investors. Trump’s main domestic challenge is voters facing cost‑of‑living pressures. Any action that lifts oil prices risks pushing prices higher across the economy. Share markets rose globally — except in the US, where software stocks remain under pressure amid fears that AI could erode revenue streams. Investors are rotating from asset‑lite companies toward those with hard assets. Bond markets posted small gains as yields fell on concerns about slower global growth, potentially reflecting AI’s impact on jobs. Plus: inflation, interest rates, commodities, currencies, bitcoin and more.

My latest IFPA webinar: Rate hikes, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin. Has ‘ai’ killed the ‘ai' boom?

Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series. Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver. Plus audience questions on inflation targeting, gold, and shorting. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios – discretionary and non-discretionary. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns. Enjoy!

January 2026 snapshot – essential wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors

Here’s my new, improved, slimmed-down monthly wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors. It’s a simpler format for my new more complex life (with this pesky cancer thingy) Covers key global events, share markets, inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto, and more. Where are we now? and where to next?

2025 snapshot: Boom continues but backed by profits. Expensive, sure. But no more than a year ago

Here's my global markets wrap-up of 2025 for Aussie investors.   Contrary to popular media nonsense, the current boom is not just confined to just a few US tech giants. It has been a widespread boom across industry sectors, countries, and stocks.   Share markets are vastly over-priced of course, but the big share price gains in 2025 did NOT stretch pricing further as they were underpinned by strong growth in profits.   For bond markets it was the 4th straight year of poor returns. Why I have been out of bonds.   Plus inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, crypto, and more.  

My latest IFPA webinar - Winners & Losers in 2025, plus Opportunities & Risks for 2026

Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA* ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 16 December 2025.  Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, bonds, inflation, interest rates, commodities, crypto, and how typical diversified portfolio returns are shaping up. Plus I take a look at the winners and losers in 2025, and what to expect in 2026. Access to the webinar is FREE for IFPA members and non-members. No registration or login is required.

My latest webinar for IFPA– Shares, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold & more!

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 14 November 2025.  Covers the latest on share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin & more. In particular I outline my rationale for the seemingly high pricing of the Mag-7 stocks in the current ai boom. Does it make sense? Do they stack up?

October 2025 snapshot: Global shares up, US rates down, Gold at fever pitch

Global share markets posted a seventh straight month of gains, through yet another US debt ceiling / government shut-down crisis. Wrap-up of shares here and around the world - what were the winners, losers, and why? The US Fed's 5th rate cut despite still-high inflation, but the RBA is not cutting rates here. Gold enters retail silly-season. Plus I cover currencies, commodities, interest rates, inflation, crypto, and more. 

July 2025 snapshot: Share markets up for 4th month, inflation easing, more rate cuts soon

Another month of good gains on global share markets across almost all industry sectors and countries, despite Trump’s frenzy of deals, adjustments, backflips, side-deals. Inflation continues to ease, but central banks remain cautious and reluctant to cut rates further for now. But bond yields rose at the long end, reflecting fears of higher inflation ahead. Global growth, spending, and employment all remain reasonably strong – defying wide-spread predictions of slowdowns & recessions. On commodities markets, oil and gold kept rising on inflation and Middle East troubles. Iron ore was finally boosted by much-awaited Chinese stimulus.

Chinese steel production – the ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge’ Index’ – how is it holding up?

China builds another Sydney Harbour Bridge worth of steel every 10 minutes! (with iron ore and coal mainly imported from Australia). China’s steel production has been the largest single factor that has driven Australia’s economic growth, prosperity, living standards, tax revenues, share market returns, and even house pieces, so far this century. But with China’s property / construction market collapsed, its economic growth virtually stagnant, and population now declining, has this slowed China’s steel production? - and Australia’s economic growth engine? My ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge Index’ is a simple way of keeping track of this key activity. It measures the number of ‘Sydney Harbour Bridges’ worth of steel China producers per hour. Where are we now? The growth era is behind us, but steel production is holding up remarkably well

June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors

Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.

Woodside case study Part 2: Since 1980 – struggling producer to global giant to fossil fuel pariah!

How Woodside went from cash-strapped explorer to global giant and one of Australia’s biggest export earners. Still a wild ride for investors – as a leveraged bet on commodities prices, plus political risks. Despite huge profits and becoming a top-10 ASX company, still struggles to beat the overall market.

Woodside case study Part 1: 1954 to 1980 – volatile speculative survivor to national hero

Good case study representing the vast majority of ASX listed companies – as a volatile speculative hopeful with no revenues or assets to underpin value. Eventually defied the odds and the elements by actually finding something of enormous value.  But it required extreme patience and perseverance – it holds the record for longest wait for first revenue, first profit, and first dividend of any ASX listed co

World War II & share markets – Part 2 of 2: Through to the end of the War and aftermath

Key points: Australian and US share markets did well overall, despite heavy loss of life and attacks on our home soil. Volatile ride for shareholders, but patient holders ahead. Generally good for shares overall, limited only by war-time controls on profits and share prices.  

World War II & share markets – Part 1 of 2: the Outbreak

War is scary, so it is tempting for investors to panic and race for the exits.  It's important to look beyond the media headlines - knee-jerk, herd-following reactions are usually wrong.  Usually positive for commodities demand, prices, mining shares.