Saturday, October 17, 2026
US 10-year yields ‘soar’ above 5%. Shock Horror! But actually they’re still rather LOW relative to history, logic, fundamentals, and inflation. Get used to it!
US 10-year Treasury yields ‘soared’ above 5% this week triggering countless shrill headlines and dire predictions of doom and gloom. Short-term market moves make for great ‘shock-horror!’ headlines but they are of little interest to serious investors. Turns out - even after the recent so-called dramatic ‘surge’ in yields on 10-year US Treasuries, they are actually still LOW relative to history, logic, fundamentals, and inflation. Here’s why.
I went 12 rounds with Mr Chemo. Came out pretty well, but some possible complications. Constant wait for the next step!
Here’s my report after the end of my 12 round chemo program following cancer surgery in January. 18 different side effects came and went from time to time, plus some still present. Side effects ranged from weird to annoying with only one really painful (but didn’t last long). Post-chemo scans revealed some possible complications, so having more tests and biopsies. Constantly waiting for the next step!
My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors
Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years. Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors. How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles. How inflation affects returns on different asset classes. Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles. My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.
Owen’s Market Pulse: 11 September 2026: Soaring oil prices & bond yields dent share markets
Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Two negative developments this week: (1) Oil prices surged as Trump’s war on Iran veered further out of control, and (2) bond yields soared on rising inflation fears, another failed intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stubbornly high inflation numbers, and now Trump’s desperate promise of a US$5k gift to every American adult citizen if the Republicans win the Senate and House, which will add another $1 trillion to the US debt pile to be serviced and repaid by taxpayers and their kids. The latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities.
Company insolvency rate highest in 40 years, but we’re not even in recession. Things are about to get worse!
The business failure rate is currently running well above pre-Covid levels, and even above the deep and painful early-1990s recession. The problem is that business conditions are NOT even at crisis levels. Far from it. The overall economy is ticking along nicely – growing at more than 2% above inflation. Interest rates are not high, relative to history and relative to inflation. The RBA should, and now probably will raise rates further (as it should have done in 2025) Unemployment also not high, and still inflationary / expansionary. But things are about to get a lot worse, as the housing market and construction industry in particular are coming under increasing pressure from rising interest rates, rising costs of labour and materials, and government tax attacks.
Australia’s declining economic growth is mostly just POPULATION growth (immigration) – the lazy option instead of deep reforms to boost investment & PRODUCTIVITY
Yesterday’s national accounts confirm a disturbing reality for Australia: immigration-led population growth but flat-lined living standards. Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on POPULATION growth rather than PRODUCTIVITY growth. Productivity growth (and overall economic growth) have been in steady DECLINE in Australia for several decades through ALL governments. The problem is that all sides of politics are now bowing to populist pressure to radically reduce immigration, which has been the primary source of economic growth this century. This lower growth future will challenge Australian investors’ long-held assumptions of steadily rising corporate revenues, profits and dividends that have been based primarily on high immigration.&
August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues
Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.
“Ashley has the rare ability to ground insightful analysis in solid data and to present it in readily understandable ways. His wry, detached style and focus on the long term is rare and willingness to share a lifetime of learning and thinking appreciated by all who come to know him.”
Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
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Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issues. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
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Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.