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My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors

14 Sep 2026 13 day(s) ago

Yardney2-pic.jpg

Greetings fellow investors!

Here’s a link to my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yG3H23xAnY

 

Key points:

    • Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years
  •  
    • Boomers got lucky – favourable TAILWINDS produced unusually HIGH returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into HEADWINDS facing today’s investors
  •  
    • How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles
  •  
    • How inflation affects returns on different asset classes
  •  
    • Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles
  •  
    • My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on how to invest through different inflation cycles 

 

Here are the main topics with time-stamps:

0:00 – Intro by Michael Yardney

4:00 – Intro by Ashley Owen

5:20 – Why we need to look at long-term trends and cycles, not just extrapolate the last 10 years

7:50 – 150 years of inflation trends and cycles

8:50 – 1st big lesson: inflation cycles are global,  with only minor differences in each country

10:50 –2nd big lesson: overall inflation trend is UP – why?

12:50 – But will this upward trend continue in the future?

16:30 – 3rd big lesson – what is the common element that drives most inflation spikes?

18:00  – Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years?

21:00 – Boomers got lucky – favourable TAILWINDS produced unusually HIGH returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era – But those tailwinds have now all turned into HEADWINDS facing today’s investors

26:40 – Will ‘ai’ drive   down inflation?

29:20 – What does the new higher inflation environment mean for investors?

20:40 – Impact of inflation on share returns

32:15 – Returns on other asset classes in different inflation environments

34:30 – Aha! Moment #1: All asset classes do much better with low inflation, and all do much worse with high inflation

37:00 – Aha! Moment #2: ranking of returns is similar in all inflation environments

37:30 – Aha! Moment #3: Aust housing is the exception – moderately good real returns in high and low inflation environments

42:00 – My advice to 20-something year old investors starting out today

43:45 – Summary & wrap-up by Michael Yardney

The podcast interview was based on some recent articles of mine -

·        Inflation BIG Picture: Boomers got rich by lucky timing. Next Gen to get higher inflation & rates (25-May-2026)

·          Inflation Cycles & the Australian share market – the Big picture (10 Feb 2025)

·          Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with differences explained – (16 Feb 2025)

·          The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder! (16 Apr 2024)

For my prior podcast interview with Michael Yardney - https://www.owenanalytics.com.au/2026aug04-yardney1

For more of Michael Yardneys’ podcasts covering a wide range of topics for investors - https://propertyupdate.com.au/category/michael-yardney-podcast/

 

‘Till next time – happy investing and stay healthy!

 

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Ashley Owen

 

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Director/Principal, Owen Analytics Pty Ltd (current)

Investment Markets Research & Analytics, Portfolio Construction & Management, Corporate Finance, Venture Capital, M&A, and IPOs. Investment Committee membership, consulting to advice firms and financial institutions.

Co-founder & Regular Contributor, Firstlinks (current)

Co-founder of Australia's leading investment and superannuation newsletter and website for industry professionals and investors.

Non-exec Director, Third Link Investment Managers (current)

Leading Australian equities fund-of-funds that donates all management fees to Australian charities. The fund has donated in excess of $21m to a range of Australian chartities since inception in 2008. 

Chief Investment Officer, Stanford Brown (past)

Responsible for managing over $2 billion AUM in multi-asset class portfolios and discretionary accounts at a privately-owned advice practice.

Director & Joint CEO at Philo Capital Advisers Pty Ltd (past)

Specialises in investment portfolio construction & management, multi-asset class asset allocation, and global macro strategies.

Check out my full bio here

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The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.