Australian Shares

My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors

Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years.   Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors.   How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles.   How inflation affects returns on different asset classes.   Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles.   My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.   

Owen’s Market Pulse: 11 September 2026: Soaring oil prices & bond yields dent share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Two negative developments this week: (1) Oil prices surged as Trump’s war on Iran veered further out of control, and (2) bond yields soared on rising inflation fears, another failed intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stubbornly high inflation numbers, and now Trump’s desperate promise of a US$5k gift to every American adult citizen if the Republicans win the Senate and House, which will add another $1 trillion to the US debt pile to be serviced and repaid by taxpayers and their kids.   The latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities.

August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues

Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.

Reason #2 for ASX’s 17-year Lag behind global share markets = chronically LOW RETURNS ON EQUITY

The right chart shows current aggregate ROEs for ASX companies versus major world share markets. The US has highest ROEs (even better than its historical average ROE) despite massive ‘ai’ capex spending. Australia has near lowest ROEs. The right chart shows the longer-term picture: aggregate ROEs in Australia versus the US since 1960. ASX aggregate ROEs have averaged nearly 4% LOWER than the US, which is a very large difference. American company ROEs are HIGHER than their cost of equity capital, so shareholders let them RETAIN most of their earnings to invest in future GROWTH. Australian company ROEs are LOWER than the cost of capital, so shareholders demand high dividend payouts rather than let management squander it. I look at reasons, implications, and whether this problem is temporary or more entrenched.

Reason 1 for the ASX’s 17-year lag behind global share market: SECTOR MIX

In a recent article I pointed out that the ASX has lagged the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS, with the lag ACCELERATING over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom.  It has not always been this way. The Australian and US share markets have been the best performing markets in the world for more than a century.  There are several reasons for the recent lag. The first is SECTOR MIX. It is the most obvious, but NOT most important difference.  More than half of our market is big Banks & Miners – but more than half the US market is the global tech giants. We also have a large Real Estate sector, but a tiny and troubled Tech sector, likewise Health Ca

Australian share market has LAGGED the rest of the world for the past 17 YEARS! Our ‘Home Bias’ is costing investors dearly

The ASX has lagged global share markets for the past 17 YEARS since mid-2009, and the lag has ACCELERATED over the past three years in the ‘ai’ boom. This is the second longest period of ASX lagging global markets in history, and it is costing investors dearly. Since mid-2009, the ASX has generated total returns of 8.9% pa compared to 12.1% pa for the overall international share market, which has compounded into a 65% difference in returns. Is it time to reduce allocations to the ASX and allocate more to international shares to chase the current global boom? If you do, it will probably turn out to be a classic case of ‘Buy High – Sell Low’ - the exact opposite of serious long-term investors who focus more on company fundamentals than price charts. However, th

Owen’s Market Pulse- 25 July 2026: War escalation lifts oil, gold, bonds yields, hurts share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Oil prices surged as the US/Iran war escalated, sending gold prices and bond yields higher on rising outlooks for inflation and interest rates. These, plus Trump’s new tariff attacks and another “DeepSeek’ moment from China (this one called ‘MoonShot’), sent share markets further south. I am still relatively positive in the short-term (lower oil prices, which should support share markets) because Trump’s primary immediate goal must be to get fuel prices down in time to retain MAGA votes in the November mid-term elections.  My latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities - 

My latest IFPA webinar: Inflation, Interest rates, war, oil, gold, bitcoin, Why ASX is lagging the world

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 10 July 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates, currencies, crypto. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Featuring: Why the Australian share market is lagging the US and the world. Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

2025-6: – Fourth straight year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios. How did yours go?

Today's charts show total returns from the main asset classes & segments for the 2025-6 year to June (right chart), plus 2024-5 (left) for comparison. (All returns are in Aussie dollars before fees and taxes). ‘Diversified’ portfolios (like Big Super) should return around 10% for the 2025-6 year - the 4th straight year of double-digit returns. If yours didn’t return at least 10%, find out why! (as a simple 70/30 ETF portfolio mix returned 10% without any fuss or fiddling, with minimal fees). Returns for 2025-6 were a little below last year, due to lower returns on Australian shares and bond markets everywhere. I outline the main winners and losers for the year.

Well into 4th year of global share boom. NOT just the US, it’s everywhere (except Australia)

We are well into the fourth year of a global share boom despite wars, inflation, fuel crises, political fracturing, social unrest, plus increasingly astronomical pricing. Although US stocks hog the media headlines, the US share market is actually LAGGING most share markets again this year (as it did last year). It’s not just a US boom. It’s global. Dozens of share markets are beating the US S&P500 this year. AUATRALIA is once again LAGGING the US and the rest of the world by a big margin for a fourth straight year. I outline several reasons for this. Pricing is currently very expensive – not just US tech stocks but everywhere including and especially Australia. Four-year booms are not unusual. There have been plenty of longer booms before a crash. Over-priced booms can keep running up into even more over-priced ter

Happy King's Birthday, fellow British Colonial subjects! Here's my latest Market Pulse

Yep, a sorry reminder that in this day and age we are still a British colony, with a British Head of State, (a Germanic King!), who’s representative still officially must sign off every piece of ‘Australian’ federal and state legislation, and who’s head is still on ‘Australian’ currency notes and coins. Wake up Ostraya! Meanwhile, here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – shares down on US rate hike fears after another strong jobs report, bond yields up, oil up, gold down, AUD down, USD up. The ai boom shifted up another gear with the SpaceX IPO and plans for IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic to cash in on the crazy retail FOMO frenzy.

May 2026 snapshot: Markets see-saw in Trump’s endless ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus

May was a tedious month watching markets predictably see-saw in Trump’s ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus. Every time Trump announces his latest ‘deal’, oil prices, bond yields and the US dollar fall, while share markets and risk currencies like the AUD rise. Then every time the latest ‘deal’ falters or gets delayed or deferred, they all reverse. This will probably carry on for some time as there are no clear signs of the end of the war nor the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the tech / ai / chip /data centre boom continues to inflate, but the local market continues to lag. Will I be jumping in on the SpaceX IPO? In Australia: another RBA rate hike, high inflation, rising unemployment, falling house prices, and the great tax grab debate.    Plus the latest for share markets, inflation, interest rates, com

Owen’s Market Pulse: 23 May 2026 + Xi-Trump-Putin talks, Budget tax debate

Here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – US/global tech / ai / chip boom back in full swing (at bubble-like pricing levels) despite US/Iran war dragging on, high energy prices, and rising inflation. Primed and due for major correction, just waiting for the trigger/s. Share markets edge up a little, but bond yields on the rise on fears of inflationary government spending / debt, despite signs of slowdown as high energy prices blunt confidence and spending. Different world views from Xi with Trump and Putin, and the local budget tax debate in Oz.

Owen’s Market Pulse - 16 May 2026

Given rapidly changing markets in the current environment, and an increase in queries from advisers, portfolio managers, commentators and media, I have decided to share one of my regular tools to track key market barometers and drivers of global investment markets. This is something I do anyway in order to keep track of what’s going on and why. I track and analyse thousands of data points across all markets and asset classes, but the most important barometers and drivers of local and global markets for my purposes are: share markets (Aus & US), treasury bonds (Aus & US), currencies (AUD & USD), oil and gold.

1973-4 Oil Crisis - Fact Check: impacts on inflation, interest rates, shares, FX, gold. Then-v-Now?

With the recent spike in oil prices there are a lot of myths about the 1973-4 oil shock causing the 1970s inflation, and also triggering the 1973-4 share market crashes. Here are the facts about what actually happened to shares, bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, oil, gold, and inflation before, during and after the 1973-4 crisis. SHARE MARKETS actually ROSE during the Yom Kippur War, OPEC production cuts and embargoes. The oil price spike was only part of a much larger 1973-4 share market crash where there were several other causes. INFLATION was already running at 7.4% in US and 10.1% in Australia BEFORE the crisis. Oil prices certainly added to inflation, but was not a primary cause. I outline many SIMILARITIES and DIFFERENCES between the 1973-4 crisis and today’s conditions.

The Myth of rising Oil prices being bad for Share markets

Most years of RISING oil prices (even severe oil price spikes like 1979) were GOOD years for shares. Out of all four segments on the chart, the sector with the most years by far is the upper right segment ‘B’ which was when oil prices and shares were both UP. Many of the BEST years for Australian shares were when oil prices were RISING including 1978, 1979, 1985, 1989,  1995, 1996, 1999,  2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2013,  2019, and 2021. Conversely, some of the WORST years for shares were when oil prices were also FALLING (segment ‘C’ ), but these had little to do with oil - like 1930 (Great Depression) and 2008 (GFC). At most, oil prices have been a relatively minor contributing factor in share boom-bu

Impact of 31 wars & crises on share markets: mostly quick recoveries and ABOVE-average returns!

Three-quarters of the major wars and military flare-ups in the past century were accompanied by rising share markets (including the BIG ones in WW2). Each crisis is different of course, but wars generally create surges in demand and spending, flowing through to company profits and share prices, but also higher inflation. But even with higher inflation, in most cases the military crises triggered surges or rebounds in share markets. The initial shocks caused mostly sharp but short sell-offs, but two-thirds recovered within three months, and three-quarters were ahead by 12 months. More than half of cases, both US and Aussie share markets posted better than historical average returns from pre-crisis levels (and even higher from the crisis lows).

Feb2026 snapshot: Just when I thought it was safe to issue a monthly report Trump starts another war

My essential wrap‑up of global markets for Aussie investors. Trump’s main domestic challenge is voters facing cost‑of‑living pressures. Any action that lifts oil prices risks pushing prices higher across the economy. Share markets rose globally — except in the US, where software stocks remain under pressure amid fears that AI could erode revenue streams. Investors are rotating from asset‑lite companies toward those with hard assets. Bond markets posted small gains as yields fell on concerns about slower global growth, potentially reflecting AI’s impact on jobs. Plus: inflation, interest rates, commodities, currencies, bitcoin and more.

126 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?

It’s that time of year again – time to review threats and risks that might blow up our investments in the coming year. In the past we have had wars (including ‘World Wars’), revolutions, recessions, depressions, inflation spikes, deflation, pandemics, political crises, nuclear strikes, etc. They may have been devastating for human life and whole economic systems, but you would have trouble spotting their impacts on the chart. For 2026, we have Trump’s threats against Canada, Greenland, military actions in LatAm and Iran, ICE waging war on US soil, escalating US deficit/debts, Trump’s new Fed chair hired to cut rates, ‘ai’ destroying jobs, industries, and even destroying the ‘ai’ bubble itself!  All scary stuff! Given the ‘uncertainty’ and expensive pricing, is it NOW time to sell up and wait for things to 'settle down' and become

January 2026 snapshot – essential wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors

Here’s my new, improved, slimmed-down monthly wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors. It’s a simpler format for my new more complex life (with this pesky cancer thingy) Covers key global events, share markets, inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto, and more. Where are we now? and where to next?

Annual Return Pyramid for US Share market. Leads Australia, but US will lose lead when boom ends

By popular demand, following my recent ‘annual return pyramids’ for the Australian share market, here are the equivalent annual return pyramids for the US market. 2025 was another very good year of well above average nominal and real returns from the US market. Five out of the past six years have been well above average for the US market – higher than Australia. US has posted lower overall average Nominal returns than Australia, but higher average Real returns, because inflation has been higher in Australia than the US. US real return pyramid is much ‘lumpier’ than Australia because of higher volatility in the US market. The US market is currently ahead of Australia, but that will reverse when (not if) the current tech boom ends.

REAL Return Pyramid for Aussie Shares. Longest period of consistent historical average CPI+ Returns

Here’s my annual Real return pyramid for the Australian share market to go with the Nominal return pyramid in my last story. Real returns are even more important than Nominal returns because we need our wealth and withdrawals for living expenses to keep growing ahead of inflation. As with Nominal returns, 2025 was another good year of spot-on historical average Real returns from the broad Aussie share market, despite endless scare mongering from media and so-called ‘experts’. That's three years in a row of historical average Real returns – the longest period of consistent historical average real returns. So much for all the nonsense about ‘volatility’. The broad Australian share market has been one of the best inflation hedges.

Visual snapshot of 60+ share markets over 35 years. 2025 = third year into broad global boom

2025 was the third straight year of good returns on most share markets. Although the US had another above-average year, most other countries did even better than the US in 2025, busting the common myth that this is a narrow US-led boom. Australia lagged the US by a big margin again for a third year running. I outline the reasons why. Three-year booms are not unusual. There have been plenty of examples of longer booms before a bust. The higher and longer the boom, the deeper and longer the bust. The US is beating Australia in the current boom, but will suffer worse in the bust to follow. Pricing is currently very expensive – not just US tech stocks but everywhere including and especially Australia. Share markets do not collapse because or when they become expensive. Over-priced booms can keep running

Global share markets in 2025: third straight year of boom in most countries

Here’s my quick visual snapshot of global share markets in 2025, with data to 18 December (full report in early January).   2025 was the third straight year of good positive returns on most share markets.   Australia lagged the US by a big margin again for a third year.   Three-year booms are not unusual – there have been plenty of examples of longer booms before a bust.   Pricing is currently very expensive – not just US tech stocks but everywhere including Australia.   However, share markets do not collapse because or when they become expensive. Over-priced booms can keep running up into even more over-priced territory for several years before collapsing.   

My latest webinar for IFPA– Shares, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin, Gold & more!

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 14 November 2025.  Covers the latest on share markets, inflation, interest rates, Mag-7 pricing, Bitcoin & more. In particular I outline my rationale for the seemingly high pricing of the Mag-7 stocks in the current ai boom. Does it make sense? Do they stack up?

How long and how high can the current boom go? 100 years of boom-bust cycles on the ASX

We all know we’re in a share market boom, but are we at the start, or the middle, or near the end? Here I put the current boom in context by looking at every boom-bust cycle on the Australian share market over the past 100 years. The pace of the current boom is actually quite moderate (although the US boom has been much stronger). There have been plenty of past booms that went a lot longer and a lot higher than the current boom. The longer and higher the boom, the deeper the bust, and the longer the recovery time. It’s not about pricing or valuations. Booms don’t end because or when markets become over-priced, or when reach a certain level of over-pricing. Over-priced booms can run on for many years. What ends booms is a trigger or series of triggers.

Whitlam, Nixon, the 1973-4 crash, and how the 1970s inflation crisis changed the world

The 1973-4 share market crashes in Australia and the US featured major political crises – Nixon/Watergate in the US and the Whitlam dismissal in Australia. But the main causes of the crashes were the battle against inflation, started in the mid-1960s but worsened under Nixon and Whitlam. The 1970s inflation crisis triggered three seismic policy shifts: 1) monetary policy; 2) central bank independence / inflation targeting; and 3) the shift to a whole new economic orthodoxy which delivered four decades of declining inflation and interest rates, plus high returns. That post-1970s golden era of declining inflation & interest rates, globalisation, free-trade and hands-off government are over. Now we are into a new era – with the return of inflation, big government, protectionism. Today we have several similarities with the 1970s. <

1987 Crash Part 3: How it shaped my investment philosophy

How I ended up on the right side of both the mid-1980s share market boom and the October 1987 crash. How I came across and put to work the 4 Rules that work in all market cycles. How the real world is the exact opposite of what academic finance theory teaches. How one-off extreme ‘outlier’ events like the 1987 crash are ignored by finance theory, but they are what define our lives, and determine our future wealth. This is the story of my experiences before, during, and after the Crash

1987 Crash Part 2: what happened, why was it much worse in Australia, and what is similar today?

For the US stock market, the October 1987 crash featured its largest ever one-day fall, but it turned out to be a relatively minor hiccup. The US market started rebounding the next day and recovered its pre-crash high in less than two years. But in Australia the crash was much deeper (-50%) and took more than eight years to recover. Although most of the problems and trigger events were in the US, I provide ten reasons why the Australian crash was much worse than the US. The current US tech boom has several similar underlying conditions as in 1987 - over-pricing, speculative fever, inflation, mounting government deficits & debts, trade & current account deficits, falling US dollar, trade/currency wars. However the trigger for the correction is different in every crash, and may be years away. Meanwhile it pays to be vigilant.&

‘Price/Earnings’ ratios are meaningless – Exhibit A: the 1987 crash

The 1987 crash was a prime example of how the most widely used measure of pricing for shares and share markets – the ‘price/earnings’ ratio - can give investors a false sense of security, and fail to warn of massive levels of hidden over-pricing. At the top of the market before the 1987 crash the Australian share market had a lower (cheaper) p/e ratio than the US, but our crash turned out to be much sharper & deeper, and took 5 times as long to recover.  The low p/e ratios for companies, and for the whole market, masked enormous underlying problems because much of the reported 'profits' were due to accounting trickery, fudged valuations, related-party deals, circular transactions, and straight-out fraud.  It is the same in every boom - and we are seeing increasing evidence of this in the current ai/ data centre / private credit boom.