Saturday, September 19, 2026
My latest podcast with Michael Yardney: Why Boomers got lucky, and why future returns will be very different for today’s investors
Here’s my latest podcast interview with Michael Yardney’s Property Insights. Timing is EVERYTHING - Why the next 20-30 years will be very different from the last 20-30 years. Boomers got lucky – favourable tailwinds produced unusually high returns from all asset classes in the great disinflation era. But those tailwinds have now all turned into headwinds facing today’s investors. How and why inflation works in 20-30 year cycles. How inflation affects returns on different asset classes. Three big LESSONS I learned about inflation cycles. My three big ‘Aha! Moments’ on investing through different inflation cycles.
August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues
Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.
July 2026 snapshot: US/Iran quagmire continues; Inflation fears & bond yields rise; Cracks in Tech bubble?
Global share markets were flat in July, ending the rebound since March after the start of the US/Iran war. Three reasons for the pause: 1: US/Iran war stalemate leaving fuel prices high, flowing through to broad inflation numbers, consumer confidence, spending. 2: US Fed’s new Chair Kevin Warsh sounding too soft on inflation. 3: Widening fears about the ai boom deflating. Four key developments in July. Why I’m still relatively positive for share markets in the short term. Plus the latest news (and a dozen charts) on Australian & global share markets, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin. (+ 'I told you so' on SpaceX - sorry!)
My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ doing well after two busy/lazy years, beating Big Super again
My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ returned 30% for the two years since inception in June 2024 (14.5% in 2024/5 and 13.5% in 2025/6), beating its benchmark (VDGR: Vanguard Diversified Growth ETF) by 3.3%, and beating most ‘Big Super’ funds by even more. 30% is not bad given wars in Europe & the Middle-East, energy crisis, tariffs, rising inflation & interest rates, tax hikes in Australia, and political fracturing everywhere. The ETFs in the fund are the same as when I set it up in June 2024. I have not fiddled with or changed any allocations. I set it up in June 2024 with $1m of spare cash as a low-maintenance, ‘all-weather’ portfolio that would keep doing its job over the medium-long term re
2025-6: – Fourth straight year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios. How did yours go?
Today's charts show total returns from the main asset classes & segments for the 2025-6 year to June (right chart), plus 2024-5 (left) for comparison. (All returns are in Aussie dollars before fees and taxes). ‘Diversified’ portfolios (like Big Super) should return around 10% for the 2025-6 year - the 4th straight year of double-digit returns. If yours didn’t return at least 10%, find out why! (as a simple 70/30 ETF portfolio mix returned 10% without any fuss or fiddling, with minimal fees). Returns for 2025-6 were a little below last year, due to lower returns on Australian shares and bond markets everywhere. I outline the main winners and losers for the year.
Inflation BIG Picture: Boomers got rich by lucky timing. Next Gen to get higher inflation & rates
Here’s my go-to chart on the BIG Picture on inflation over the past 150 years. Five BIG lessons: 1 - Inflation is global, because capital is global, and monetary theory/dogma/fads are global. 2 - Overall UPWARD trend in inflation over past 150 years as monetary systems moved from metal-backing, to exchange standards, then to unrestricted fiat paper money. 3 - Multi-decade inflation phases along the way as each monetary system is abandoned and replaced by the next. 4 - The big inflation spikes have been due to military buildups and war-time spending, same as past 2,000+ years. 5 - The recent 30-year golden era of declining/low inflation & interest rates, with high real returns for shares, bonds & property, is clearly over, as each of the drivers of disinflation have now ENDED and REVERSED, driving inflation a
My latest IFPA webinar - Winners & Losers in 2025, plus Opportunities & Risks for 2026
Here’s a link to my latest webinar for the IFPA* ‘Investment Insight’ series held on 16 December 2025. Topics covered in this episode include: share markets, bonds, inflation, interest rates, commodities, crypto, and how typical diversified portfolio returns are shaping up. Plus I take a look at the winners and losers in 2025, and what to expect in 2026. Access to the webinar is FREE for IFPA members and non-members. No registration or login is required.
How long and how high can the current boom go? 100 years of boom-bust cycles on the ASX
We all know we’re in a share market boom, but are we at the start, or the middle, or near the end? Here I put the current boom in context by looking at every boom-bust cycle on the Australian share market over the past 100 years. The pace of the current boom is actually quite moderate (although the US boom has been much stronger). There have been plenty of past booms that went a lot longer and a lot higher than the current boom. The longer and higher the boom, the deeper the bust, and the longer the recovery time. It’s not about pricing or valuations. Booms don’t end because or when markets become over-priced, or when reach a certain level of over-pricing. Over-priced booms can run on for many years. What ends booms is a trigger or series of triggers.
3/4-time score check on returns for asset classes & diversified portfolios in 2025. So far so good!
Despite Trump’s tariffs, rising political unrest across the world, wars, mounting deficits and debts everywhere, the ‘cost of living’ crisis, and endless tiresome predictions of imminent recessions and/or crashes, 2025 is shaping up to be one of the better years for diversified investors – for returns, and also for the consistency of positive returns across asset classes. Similar to 2004, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2023, when just about everything was positive. Typical ‘70/30’ diversified portfolio are heading for another great year of double-digit returns. This is one of my go-to charts to help illustrate the value of diversification and patience, rather than piling into last year’s winners, and/or trying to chase the latest hot themes / stocks / funds / fads.
My top 10 take-aways from this week’s ‘Alternatives Symposium’ in the Blue Mountains NSW
The term ‘alternatives’ covers a wide and varying range of ‘non-traditional’ types of investment, including hedge funds, private equity, venture capital, currencies, commodities, and the current ‘hot’ sectors: ‘private credit’ and ‘crypto’. Here are my top 10 take-aways from The Inside Network’s symposium on Alternative Investments this week. For me there were several surprises - most of them positive.
March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?
Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors - Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.
Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?
Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?
What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!
This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start. Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!)
Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!
How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all
125 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?
It's that time of year again - time to review a whole new year of possible threats, risks, and crises that might blow up share markets. What are the big risks that might spook investors in 2025? How share markets power through even the greatest crises the world has ever faced.
We're half-way through the 2020s decade! Here's the half-time score check on Aussie shares
The decade half-time score check for the Aussie share market is not that good: Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far (and below other markets eg the US). It has been below average all decade – after a poor start with the 2020 Covid lockdowns. But all is not lost – some past decades also started out slow but ended up with good full decade returns. There is plenty of time left this decade for the next big speculative boom to lift the share market – history is on our side!
November 2024 snapshot: Trump, Gold, & Bitcoin!
Here is my essential snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors. The Trump circus continues - and a new era of crony capitalism. Share market up - heading for another cracking year. Interest rates & inflation - down everywhere but here. Gold & Bitcoin shine - but which is better?
October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls
Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets? Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year? Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?
3/4 time score check: 2024 - Great returns despite constant 'recession' fear mongering
Here's my 3/4 time score check on asset class returns to September 2024. Almost all are positive and ahead of inflation. Most are doing better than their long term average returns. Which are the best and worst? How is the end of year shaping up?
Another good financial year for lazy investors! How did your returns stack up?
Today's chart shows returns from the main asset classes and sectors for Aussie investors for 2022-3 and 2023-4, including returns from a standard, passive 70/30 'growth' portfolio mix. How did your returns stack up?
May 2024 Snapshot: Inflation, trade wars, but shares stronger. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?
May 2024 Snapshot: inflation sticky, trade wars escalate, but shares heading for another good year. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?
Active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money - Why?
Active fund managers are almost universally useless. Here is my updated report on how much wealth they destroy for Aussie investors. Are they getting any better? Why do we let them take $4.5b from our pockets every year? Where does the money go? How much do they pocket? How much do they just throw away through incompetence?
April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?
Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast. 'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?
Margin Lending boom-bust signal of share market over-confidence - Not flashing red yet
I have never used or recommended margin lending, but margin lending volumes are a great barometer of boom-bust cycles. Where are we now in the cycle? Are we near the top of the market?
US Shares vastly over-priced + primed to fall - What will the trigger be?
The US share market hit new record highs at the end of March but has retreated a little in April. is this enough of a correction? Is the market still expensive? Is it the start of the next big correction? Here is my update on the US 'CAPE' ratio and what it means for returns
The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!
Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well! But that era of great returns from low inflation is over. What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?
March 2024 Snapshot - Shares keep rising despite strong economy + sticky inflation
March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – What is happening in local and global investment markets and Why.
US Shares: 'double-whammy' of over-pricing, but how serious is it?
The US share market is soaring, but bullish profit forecasts, plus bullish multiples give us a 'double-whammy' of over-pricing. Current p/e ratios - expensive but extreme yet? Profit outlooks - also bullish, but how stretched are they? Why short and long term interest rates are both relatively low given the inflation task Why pricing is different from timing or triggers
Feb 2024 Snapshot - early rate cut hopes dashed but shares surge on confidence from US profits
He's my quick wrap-up of key developments in investment markets in Feb 2024.
Share Market Pricing per Country - how do we rate?
The US dominates world markets and is the sole reason why the global share market as a whole appears very expensive. On the other hand, Australia appears much better value – but is it?
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.
“Ashley has the rare ability to ground insightful analysis in solid data and to present it in readily understandable ways. His wry, detached style and focus on the long term is rare and willingness to share a lifetime of learning and thinking appreciated by all who come to know him.”
Toby Potter - Chair, Institute of Managed Account Professionals (‘IMAP’), the peak industry body for the discretionary managed accounts industry in Australia, representing investment managers, advisers, Managed Account providers, and technology companies. It is the primary thought-leader for the industry in Australia, and provides training and industry events and conferences.
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”
Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issues. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).