Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast. 'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?
I have never used or recommended margin lending, but margin lending volumes are a great barometer of boom-bust cycles. Where are we now in the cycle? Are we near the top of the market?
The US share market hit new record highs at the end of March but has retreated a little in April. is this enough of a correction? Is the market still expensive? Is it the start of the next big correction? Here is my update on the US 'CAPE' ratio and what it means for returns
Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well! But that era of great returns from low inflation is over. What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?
March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – What is happening in local and global investment markets and Why.
The US share market is soaring, but bullish profit forecasts, plus bullish multiples give us a 'double-whammy' of over-pricing. Current p/e ratios - expensive but extreme yet? Profit outlooks - also bullish, but how stretched are they? Why short and long term interest rates are both relatively low given the inflation task Why pricing is different from timing or triggers
He's my quick wrap-up of key developments in investment markets in Feb 2024.
The US dominates world markets and is the sole reason why the global share market as a whole appears very expensive. On the other hand, Australia appears much better value – but is it?
Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?
2023 was a good year for the Australian share market, but where does it sit in historical terms? The past five years were actually rather boring and ho-hum for the share market – despite a host of extreme events like the Covid lockdowns, steep recessions, inflation spikes, aggressive rate hikes, wars, rising military tensions, bank collapses, etc.
Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again! In 2023, almost all asset classes posted positive returns, most were above average, and most beat inflation, despite doom & gloom from the so-called ‘experts’. Here is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly asset classes for 2023.
The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why? Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? Is it time to give up on the local share market and look elsewhere?
Welcome to the Monthly Market Monitor for October 2023. First, here is our quick snapshot of Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the AUD since the start of 2020
Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive and ahead of inflation.
What is the best or ideal asset allocation for long term investment funds, including retirement/pension funds?
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“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
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