Saturday, September 19, 2026
Australia’s declining economic growth is mostly just POPULATION growth (immigration) – the lazy option instead of deep reforms to boost investment & PRODUCTIVITY
Yesterday’s national accounts confirm a disturbing reality for Australia: immigration-led population growth but flat-lined living standards. Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on POPULATION growth rather than PRODUCTIVITY growth. Productivity growth (and overall economic growth) have been in steady DECLINE in Australia for several decades through ALL governments. The problem is that all sides of politics are now bowing to populist pressure to radically reduce immigration, which has been the primary source of economic growth this century. This lower growth future will challenge Australian investors’ long-held assumptions of steadily rising corporate revenues, profits and dividends that have been based primarily on high immigration.&
Wages falling further behind inflation – government and RBA stoking, not attacking, inflation
So far this century, wages in Australia have grown comfortably AHEAD of inflation, with public sector wage growth leading private sector wage growth. However, since the start of 2020 in the post-Covid era of higher inflation, wages have LAGGED well behind inflation, with both private and public sectors suffering NEGATIVE real wage growth. The gap between inflation and wages has accelerated once again over the past year as inflation remains high. Here I look at the causes and solutions for the problems of declining real wages and living standards.
Housing inflation much higher than CPI: Owners hit hard, but Renters have highest inflation. Governments (all 3 layers) the main culprits
Today’s chart shows inflation rates for the main components of housing relative to CPI since 2000. Overall Housing cost inflation averaged 4.0% pa - ie 1.0% ABOVE CPI inflation. But there are big differences in the components of Housing. The main problem with housing inflation is GOVERNMENT. The highest inflation items are those directly or indirectly controlled by governments – utilities, property taxes, construction (State taxes, government supply restrictions, centralised wage rises), and rents (tax policies on rental housing investment, government supply constraints). Renters suffer the highest inflation as they tend to be lower income earners, spend more of their income on high inflation items (utilities, food), and have less spare cash to spend on lower inflation items (cars, gadgets).
Happy 250th USA! What I learned first-hand from its 200th anniversary in 1976 and 50 years since
I had a front row seat at USA’s 200th anniversary year in 1976 as an Asian immigrant 16 year-old Aussie kid going to school in LA and Washington. This essay outlines how this experience changed my life and informed my understanding of some of the fundamental differences between Americans and Australians. 1976 was 50 years ago, so it is a good opportunity to reflect on changes since then to the 250th anniversary now.
Where are you on the inflation pyramid? Inflation differences by household type
The national CPI inflation rate is averaged across all types of spenders and households, but different types of households experience different inflation rates due to different spending habits. Working households have the lowest overall inflation rate, BELOW overall national average CPI inflation. Next are Self-funded retirees, with higher average inflation than working households, but still LOWER than national CPI. Government age pensioners on average suffer inflation ABOVE national CPI inflation. At the top of the inflation pyramid with the HIGHEST average inflation are recipients of government welfare other than age pensioners. Welfare payments including pensions are indexed at the ‘Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index’ or CPI, whichever is HIGHER, which entrenches higher inflation for us all.
My Life in Weeks: 83% done but there’s a nasty new twist this year. Life’s like a box of chocolates!
It’s the start of another year, so it’s time to update ‘My Life in Weeks’. I have now lived 3,453 weeks, which is 83% of my estimated expected ‘useful life’. Will I make it to 80? or perhaps even longer, into ‘bonus time’? 99% of humans throughout history had much shorter lives than ours, but somehow they managed to build the modern world and prosperity we enjoy today. I have been thrown a curve ball this year that may upset my grand plans. Time to re-focus and make sure I make the most of every day.
Six things I learned about age/dementia care costs, and how they have shaped my own plans
This is a follow-up to my main story ‘10 things I learned about dementia & dementia care homes from close range’. That first story covered various aspects my experiences dealing with my mother’s dementia and dementia facilities in Sydney over the past three years. Today’s story is about the costs, how they were very different to what I expected, and how some of the lessons have shaped my own plans.
10 things I learned about dementia & dementia care homes from close range
This is a brief summary of some aspects my experiences dealing with my mother’s dementia and dementia facilities in Sydney over the past three years. Every case is different of course, so these are just my random anecdotal comments that may be of interest to others facing the prospect of parent(s) or family member(s) with, or developing, dementia. Topics I cover include - the pace and pattern of cognitive decline, the decision to ‘go in’, different types of facilities we went through, what its like inside, lessons in preparation, costs, and more.
Aussie house prices on the rise again, but rents are yet to catch up
House prices have been rising again since March 2025 with the RBA interest rate cuts, and prices are now set to accelerate with the new first home buyer lending rules. Since Covid, house prices have soared, but rents have risen by only half as much, so gross rental yields for landlords have halved while interest rates have risen. Given continued strong immigration and slow new construction activity, there will be enormous pressure (and scope) for landlords to raise rents further. Tenants will have to cope with rising rents, plus the nightmare seeing price rises take the dream of home ownership further out of reach. Why I have recently renewed my interest in housing markets.
Australia’s aging population - are age pensions, benefits, and tax breaks sustainable in future?
Many retirees live more frugally than necessary, and die with as much Super as they had at retirement. One possible reason may be a rising fear that the current government age pension system is not sustainable and may not be there for life. Despite our aging population, Australia is probably best placed of any country in the world to maintain its government age pension system. Fears of its demise are probably over-done. However, it is probably inevitable that the age pension, and/or the generous tax-breaks and benefits that go with it, will need to be scaled back in future. Future retirees should aim for financial independence, not welfare reliance, to be safe.
Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0 – Part 1: Shape & distribution of Economic Growth
In the 8 years since the start of Trump’s first term, the global economy has changed fundamentally. Part 1 looks at big changes in the shape and distribution of economic growth: There are 600 million more people in the world. That's more than the entire 19th century! Populations are aging everywhere. The global economic pie is US$10 trillion larger.
Report from the Big Apple on election eve 2024 - to the Barricades!
Having spent the past 18 days travelling around North America, here are my top-10 observations on the election race from New York. What are Americans saying about the election race and the campaigns? Barricades are being erected all over New York City – is it in anticipation of civil unrest following the election?
Paris Olympics – who were the real winners adjusted for population and wealth?
It was Australia's best ever medal haul based on a simple medal count. But who were the real winners when we adjust for the vast differences in population and wealth in each country? How do we really rate against our rivals and peers?
Australia's shrinking growth - mostly just population growth
Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on population rather than real reforms to improve productivity and living standards. It has been deteriorating for several decades through governments of all types. Here is the Big Picture you will not find anywhere else.
Residential Landlords v Tenants: Australia is 'Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell'
Australia has the fastest rising residential property prices and rents in the world, making it Residential ‘Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell’. The tide will turn one day, but when?
Australia's remarkable population-led growth
Australia’s population just hit 27 million, 18 years sooner than planned. Australia has the highest population growth rate outside of Africa, but it is still the sparsest country on earth.
Australia v US share markets – it’s our turn next!
Australia and the US have had the best share markets in the world for the past 100+ years, but: Why? Which market has generated higher returns? Which has had the bigger booms and busts? Who’s turn is it next?
Where are You on the Income Tax Pyramid? 42% of adults pay no tax!
It’s tax return time in Australia. As we fill in our tax returns and pay our taxes, we often wonder – Am I paying too much tax? Am I paying my ‘fair share?’ What is a ‘fair share’, anyway?
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