Friday, October 02, 2026
August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues
Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.
July 2026 snapshot: US/Iran quagmire continues; Inflation fears & bond yields rise; Cracks in Tech bubble?
Global share markets were flat in July, ending the rebound since March after the start of the US/Iran war. Three reasons for the pause: 1: US/Iran war stalemate leaving fuel prices high, flowing through to broad inflation numbers, consumer confidence, spending. 2: US Fed’s new Chair Kevin Warsh sounding too soft on inflation. 3: Widening fears about the ai boom deflating. Four key developments in July. Why I’m still relatively positive for share markets in the short term. Plus the latest news (and a dozen charts) on Australian & global share markets, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin. (+ 'I told you so' on SpaceX - sorry!)
Owen’s Market Pulse- 25 July 2026: War escalation lifts oil, gold, bonds yields, hurts share markets
Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Oil prices surged as the US/Iran war escalated, sending gold prices and bond yields higher on rising outlooks for inflation and interest rates. These, plus Trump’s new tariff attacks and another “DeepSeek’ moment from China (this one called ‘MoonShot’), sent share markets further south. I am still relatively positive in the short-term (lower oil prices, which should support share markets) because Trump’s primary immediate goal must be to get fuel prices down in time to retain MAGA votes in the November mid-term elections. My latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities -
My latest IFPA webinar: Inflation, Interest rates, war, oil, gold, bitcoin, Why ASX is lagging the world
Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 10 July 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates, currencies, crypto. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. Featuring: Why the Australian share market is lagging the US and the world. Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.
Happy King's Birthday, fellow British Colonial subjects! Here's my latest Market Pulse
Yep, a sorry reminder that in this day and age we are still a British colony, with a British Head of State, (a Germanic King!), who’s representative still officially must sign off every piece of ‘Australian’ federal and state legislation, and who’s head is still on ‘Australian’ currency notes and coins. Wake up Ostraya! Meanwhile, here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – shares down on US rate hike fears after another strong jobs report, bond yields up, oil up, gold down, AUD down, USD up. The ai boom shifted up another gear with the SpaceX IPO and plans for IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic to cash in on the crazy retail FOMO frenzy.
May 2026 snapshot: Markets see-saw in Trump’s endless ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus
May was a tedious month watching markets predictably see-saw in Trump’s ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus. Every time Trump announces his latest ‘deal’, oil prices, bond yields and the US dollar fall, while share markets and risk currencies like the AUD rise. Then every time the latest ‘deal’ falters or gets delayed or deferred, they all reverse. This will probably carry on for some time as there are no clear signs of the end of the war nor the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the tech / ai / chip /data centre boom continues to inflate, but the local market continues to lag. Will I be jumping in on the SpaceX IPO? In Australia: another RBA rate hike, high inflation, rising unemployment, falling house prices, and the great tax grab debate. Plus the latest for share markets, inflation, interest rates, com
Owen’s Market Pulse: 23 May 2026 + Xi-Trump-Putin talks, Budget tax debate
Here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – US/global tech / ai / chip boom back in full swing (at bubble-like pricing levels) despite US/Iran war dragging on, high energy prices, and rising inflation. Primed and due for major correction, just waiting for the trigger/s. Share markets edge up a little, but bond yields on the rise on fears of inflationary government spending / debt, despite signs of slowdown as high energy prices blunt confidence and spending. Different world views from Xi with Trump and Putin, and the local budget tax debate in Oz.
Owen’s Market Pulse - 16 May 2026
Given rapidly changing markets in the current environment, and an increase in queries from advisers, portfolio managers, commentators and media, I have decided to share one of my regular tools to track key market barometers and drivers of global investment markets. This is something I do anyway in order to keep track of what’s going on and why. I track and analyse thousands of data points across all markets and asset classes, but the most important barometers and drivers of local and global markets for my purposes are: share markets (Aus & US), treasury bonds (Aus & US), currencies (AUD & USD), oil and gold.
January 2026 snapshot – essential wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors
Here’s my new, improved, slimmed-down monthly wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors. It’s a simpler format for my new more complex life (with this pesky cancer thingy) Covers key global events, share markets, inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto, and more. Where are we now? and where to next?
October 2025 snapshot: Global shares up, US rates down, Gold at fever pitch
Global share markets posted a seventh straight month of gains, through yet another US debt ceiling / government shut-down crisis. Wrap-up of shares here and around the world - what were the winners, losers, and why? The US Fed's 5th rate cut despite still-high inflation, but the RBA is not cutting rates here. Gold enters retail silly-season. Plus I cover currencies, commodities, interest rates, inflation, crypto, and more.
April 2025 snapshot- Share markets ended around flat in April - did I miss anything?
Big moves in share and bond markets with Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs, then their sudden deferral a week later. More rebounds, or more falls ahead? Big moves also in currency markets - Trump talking down the dollar is working. Will Trump's tariffs bring inflation or recession, or both? Why tariff-induced price rises are not necessarily 'inflation'. US GDP contraction + updates on commodities, gold, bitcoin, inflation, interest rates, credit.
Is the US dollar in decline? or on its ‘last legs’? Hardly! The problem is the dollar is too strong
The US dollar is hardly in decline or on its last legs. The main problem is that it's too strong - demand exceeds supply. The biggest enemy of US producers and exporters is not China. The chief culprits are Japan, Europe, and UK, as they have trashed their currencies to help their exporters, far more than China has. Trump needs to bring down the dollar, but can he do it without crashing stock markets and sending bond yields higher? What are the implications for Aussie investors?
What drives the Aussie Dollar? -Part 3: the long-term inflation effect. Where is it heading?
Exchange rates are driven ultimately by differences in inflation. Inflation transcends and defeats all attempts to peg, fix, or manage currencies. Why the Aussie dollar has been in long-term decline against the US dollar for more than a century. Why I am bullish that this long-term decline is probably behind us.
Australia’s big banks: Origin of the Species, or ‘Survival of the Fattest!’
Ever wondered where our big dinosaur banks came from, and how they got so big? And why they are all virtually the same? How Australia became the richest country in the world per capita - without a central bank, without a national currency, and without bank regulation? How the dozens of small, independent, competitive banks became the big-4 government protected oligopoly we have today?
What drives the Aussie dollar Part 2: Commodities prices
This is the second in a series of articles looking at the four main drivers of the Aussie dollar
What drives the Aussie dollar? – Part 1: Interest Rate Differentials
Every day (in fact every minute of every day and night) the value of the Aussie dollar jumps around, seemingly at random.
1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – end November 2023 – Shares, Bonds, AUD surge
Here is my 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the USD/AUD exchange rate - since the start of 2020.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
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Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
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Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).
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Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.