Bonds

Owen’s Market Pulse: 11 September 2026: Soaring oil prices & bond yields dent share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Two negative developments this week: (1) Oil prices surged as Trump’s war on Iran veered further out of control, and (2) bond yields soared on rising inflation fears, another failed intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stubbornly high inflation numbers, and now Trump’s desperate promise of a US$5k gift to every American adult citizen if the Republicans win the Senate and House, which will add another $1 trillion to the US debt pile to be serviced and repaid by taxpayers and their kids.   The latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities.

August 2026 snapshot: US/Iran war continues; central banks turn hawkish on inflation, commodities stronger, but ai/tech boom continues

Here’s my quick monthly wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors – including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, currencies, commodities, crypto and more, plus portfolio implications and outlooks. Why I remain bullish on share markets in the short term, bearish on bond markets, and bullish on commodities medium term.

Australian gov debt hits A$1trillion, US gov debt hits US $40trillion, but how do we rate in the DEBT OLYMPICS?

Sensational headlines this week - Australian government debt hitting A$1 trillion and the US hitting $40 trillion! But how serious are they really? Here is an update on my ‘Debt Olympics’ chart of all levels of debt (government, corporate, household) since 2000. Australia has one of the LOWEST overall debt burdens in the world. Our Government and Corporate debt levels are relatively low, but our Household debt is the highest. The problem is not Debt per se, but how it is spent: paying for current spending, handouts & political pet projects, or building long-term productive capacity to generate future revenues, growth and prosperity?  

Owen’s Market Pulse- 25 July 2026: War escalation lifts oil, gold, bonds yields, hurts share markets

Here’s my latest quick take on the week’s activity on local & global markets for long-term Aussie investors: In a nutshell: Oil prices surged as the US/Iran war escalated, sending gold prices and bond yields higher on rising outlooks for inflation and interest rates. These, plus Trump’s new tariff attacks and another “DeepSeek’ moment from China (this one called ‘MoonShot’), sent share markets further south. I am still relatively positive in the short-term (lower oil prices, which should support share markets) because Trump’s primary immediate goal must be to get fuel prices down in time to retain MAGA votes in the November mid-term elections.  My latest helicopter on view shares, interest rates, bonds, currencies, commodities - 

My latest IFPA webinar: Still bullish short-term on shares, war/inflation, My take on SpaceX + more

Here’s my latest webinar for the IFPA ‘Investment Insight’ series held 12 June 2026. Covers impacts of the war on share markets, bonds, oil, gold, interest rates. Likely outcomes of the war and implications for investors. My thoughts on SpaceX Are share markets over-priced? Is the end of the boom near? Plus audience questions. Aimed at portfolio managers and advisers managing client wealth portfolios. Designed to arm advisers with clear, fact-based analysis and insights to assist in answering client queries about what is happening in investment markets and what is driving returns.

Happy King's Birthday, fellow British Colonial subjects! Here's my latest Market Pulse

Yep, a sorry reminder that in this day and age we are still a British colony, with a British Head of State, (a Germanic King!), who’s representative still officially must sign off every piece of ‘Australian’ federal and state legislation, and who’s head is still on ‘Australian’ currency notes and coins. Wake up Ostraya! Meanwhile, here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – shares down on US rate hike fears after another strong jobs report, bond yields up, oil up, gold down, AUD down, USD up. The ai boom shifted up another gear with the SpaceX IPO and plans for IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic to cash in on the crazy retail FOMO frenzy.

May 2026 snapshot: Markets see-saw in Trump’s endless ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus

May was a tedious month watching markets predictably see-saw in Trump’s ‘Deal-or-No-Deal’ circus. Every time Trump announces his latest ‘deal’, oil prices, bond yields and the US dollar fall, while share markets and risk currencies like the AUD rise. Then every time the latest ‘deal’ falters or gets delayed or deferred, they all reverse. This will probably carry on for some time as there are no clear signs of the end of the war nor the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the tech / ai / chip /data centre boom continues to inflate, but the local market continues to lag. Will I be jumping in on the SpaceX IPO? In Australia: another RBA rate hike, high inflation, rising unemployment, falling house prices, and the great tax grab debate.    Plus the latest for share markets, inflation, interest rates, com

Owen’s Market Pulse: 23 May 2026 + Xi-Trump-Putin talks, Budget tax debate

Here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – US/global tech / ai / chip boom back in full swing (at bubble-like pricing levels) despite US/Iran war dragging on, high energy prices, and rising inflation. Primed and due for major correction, just waiting for the trigger/s. Share markets edge up a little, but bond yields on the rise on fears of inflationary government spending / debt, despite signs of slowdown as high energy prices blunt confidence and spending. Different world views from Xi with Trump and Putin, and the local budget tax debate in Oz.

Owen’s Market Pulse - 16 May 2026

Given rapidly changing markets in the current environment, and an increase in queries from advisers, portfolio managers, commentators and media, I have decided to share one of my regular tools to track key market barometers and drivers of global investment markets. This is something I do anyway in order to keep track of what’s going on and why. I track and analyse thousands of data points across all markets and asset classes, but the most important barometers and drivers of local and global markets for my purposes are: share markets (Aus & US), treasury bonds (Aus & US), currencies (AUD & USD), oil and gold.

March 2026 snapshot: Not a dull month but I have two practical & logical reasons to be bullish

March 2026 was certainly one of the more eventful months for investment markets! Here’s my quick wrap-up on global markets for serious long-term Aussie investors, including shares, interest rates, inflation, bonds, cash rates, currencies, commodities, and more. I outline two practical and logical reasons to be bullish in the medium term – one is my take on Trump’s war agenda, the other is chronic fiscal diarrhoea.

Feb2026 snapshot: Just when I thought it was safe to issue a monthly report Trump starts another war

My essential wrap‑up of global markets for Aussie investors. Trump’s main domestic challenge is voters facing cost‑of‑living pressures. Any action that lifts oil prices risks pushing prices higher across the economy. Share markets rose globally — except in the US, where software stocks remain under pressure amid fears that AI could erode revenue streams. Investors are rotating from asset‑lite companies toward those with hard assets. Bond markets posted small gains as yields fell on concerns about slower global growth, potentially reflecting AI’s impact on jobs. Plus: inflation, interest rates, commodities, currencies, bitcoin and more.

January 2026 snapshot – essential wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors

Here’s my new, improved, slimmed-down monthly wrap-up of global markets for Aussie investors. It’s a simpler format for my new more complex life (with this pesky cancer thingy) Covers key global events, share markets, inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto, and more. Where are we now? and where to next?

2025 snapshot: Boom continues but backed by profits. Expensive, sure. But no more than a year ago

Here's my global markets wrap-up of 2025 for Aussie investors.   Contrary to popular media nonsense, the current boom is not just confined to just a few US tech giants. It has been a widespread boom across industry sectors, countries, and stocks.   Share markets are vastly over-priced of course, but the big share price gains in 2025 did NOT stretch pricing further as they were underpinned by strong growth in profits.   For bond markets it was the 4th straight year of poor returns. Why I have been out of bonds.   Plus inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities, crypto, and more.  

July 2025 snapshot: Share markets up for 4th month, inflation easing, more rate cuts soon

Another month of good gains on global share markets across almost all industry sectors and countries, despite Trump’s frenzy of deals, adjustments, backflips, side-deals. Inflation continues to ease, but central banks remain cautious and reluctant to cut rates further for now. But bond yields rose at the long end, reflecting fears of higher inflation ahead. Global growth, spending, and employment all remain reasonably strong – defying wide-spread predictions of slowdowns & recessions. On commodities markets, oil and gold kept rising on inflation and Middle East troubles. Iron ore was finally boosted by much-awaited Chinese stimulus.

US Government has previously defaulted on Treasuries. They are not entirely risk-free!

As the US government teeters toward yet another debt crisis, it is useful to remember that US government defaulting on Treasures is not new. The US failed to pay maturing treasury bills three times in 1979 when Congress didn't legislate to raise the debt ceiling in time. The creditors sued for unpaid interest but were denied by the Courts. These were 'temporary' defaults and were rectified quickly (the principal, not the interest), but they shocked people who had believed the US government would always pay its debts. The default crisis was a final nail in the coffin for Jimmy Carter and Keynesianism, paving the way for the 1980s boom under Reagan with the revival of free market capitalism. Are we at another turning point now? Today, the US deficit and debt load are more than THREE TIMES WORSE (relative to GDP) than in 1979.&

What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!

This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start.  Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!) 

Who wants to buy US debt? (lend to Uncle Sam?) Most of the world but me! Who’s buying, selling, why?

Just about everyone is rushing in to lend more money to the profligate US government – except China, Russia, Iran (and me). China has dumped $413b of US debt (one third of its peak holdings) since Trump started his trade war in 2018, and accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the UK soaked up all of that and more, increasing its holdings by $515b.

High Yield Debt case study - Virgin Notes

Last week I wrote about the Virgin Airlines disaster for shareholders. That was only half of the story of Virgin's last shot as a listed public company. Here is the other half of the sorry tale - the fate of the buyers and owners of $325m of Vigrin Notes - on the debt side of the balance sheet. It makes a great case study in high-yield / high-risk debt. Are there any new lessons to be learned?  &

May 2024 Snapshot: Inflation, trade wars, but shares stronger. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

May 2024 Snapshot: inflation sticky, trade wars escalate, but shares heading for another good year. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

The Debt Olympics - How do we rate?

Australia and Australians loaded up on debt in the GFC and again in Covid, but how do we stack up against other countries? How do we rate on: Government debt? Corporate debt? Household debt?   Is debt good or bad? When does it become a problem? The answers are probably very different to what you may have thought.

April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?

Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast.  'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?

The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!

Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well!   But that era of great returns from low inflation is over.  What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?

March 2024 Snapshot - Shares keep rising despite strong economy + sticky inflation

March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – What is happening in local and global investment markets and Why.